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A firestorm of activity surrounding the potential entry of former South Dakota Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby (R) into that state’s Senate race has caused local politicians and observers to re-evaluate just how vulnerable Sen. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.) is this year.
Kirby has not even declared himself in the race, yet Democrats have already released polling numbers suggesting Johnson’s dominance, attacked Kirby on a website and in a fundraising e-mail, and questioned the prospective candidate’s actual appeal to GOP leaders.
Almost every measure of a candidate’s vulnerability shows Johnson, who survived a race against then-Rep. John Thune (R-S.D.) in 2002 by the narrowest of margins, as one of the most unlikely senators to lose reelection this year. The one area where he is weak is with his health — Johnson is still recovering from a life-threatening brain hemorrhage suffered in December 2006 — and a hard-fought campaign could test that.
GOPers have questioned the Democrats’ reaction to Kirby, saying it shows just how concerned they are about having to put Johnson up against a serious opponent.
“I don’t think anybody would have expected Sen. Johnson and his campaign staff to come out in the manner in which they did against an individual,” state Republican Party Chairman Karl Adam said. “What it tells me is they also sense that perhaps his voting record has caught up with him, that other things may have caught up with him.”
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) released a poll Friday showing Johnson leading Kirby 70-19, and it’s not just the head-to-head match-up, either: Johnson has one of the highest approval ratings in the Senate these days, with seven in 10 constituents giving him the thumbs-up, according to multiple polls.
Johnson has always been popular in a conservative state.
The hemorrhage occurred just one month into a cycle in which Johnson was seen as one of the two or three most vulnerable Democratic senators up for reelection. Since then, Republicans have struggled to find a major candidate willing to challenge him, as candidates including Gov. Mike Rounds (R) have passed on the race.
Kirby is expected to decide very soon whether he will fill that void.
If nothing else, the wealthy Republican would force Democrats to divert money that could otherwise be used on the many seats they are trying to add to their majority. Kirby self-funded $2.6 million in a gubernatorial primary run in 2002 and could spend even more on a Senate bid.
DSCC spokesman Matthew Miller said the committee’s poll speaks volumes about Johnson’s reelection chances.
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