“Sometimes you see a potential candidate with a 15-point deficit that they can make up because they’re not [yet] well-known. In Kirby’s case, he actually is well-known,” Miller said. “Despite that, he trails by not 20, not 30, not 40, but 50 points.”
Even with their outward confidence, national Democrats struck Kirby early, publishing a website labeling him the GOP’s “10th choice” and haranguing him for being a dirty campaigner and an ethically challenged businessman.
Johnson’s campaign even issued a fundraising plea to donors to “Fight Kirby’s Millions,” which took aim at Kirby’s prospective candidacy: “Steve Kirby cares little that home foreclosures are growing, while incomes are not; that healthcare costs are skyrocketing while 47 million Americans lack health insurance,” it says, adding, “Tim Johnson does care.”
After the state GOP denounced the pre-emptive attacks, Johnson asked that the DSCC take down the anti-Kirby website.
Adam said the over-the-top reaction to Kirby shows that Johnson and the Democrats are taking the situation seriously and feel threatened.
He said polling would shift when voters are reminded about Johnson’s voting record, which Adam contended was too liberal for the state.
A GOP source with close knowledge of South Dakota politics said a candidate like Kirby would force Johnson to campaign actively.
Despite delivering a speech upon his return to the Senate and gradually becoming more public, Johnson still hasn’t had as much of a public presence since his injury.
“I can’t imagine, if Steve Kirby gets in this race and sews up the Republican nomination, Tim Johnson being able to debate him and being able to campaign as vigorously,” the source said. “That’s a very interesting juxtaposition when you have them on the stage together, and the Democrats realize that.”
Republicans and observers also feel that the strong reaction to Kirby potentially entering the race has, to some degree, lifted the moratorium on campaigning against Johnson.
But University of South Dakota political scientist Bill Richardson said it’s still a very risky proposition.
“How do you get a hook into the senator himself without causing people to be offended?” Richardson said. “That Teflon-coating will be difficult for Republicans to overcome.”
Two GOPers, state Rep. Joel Dykstra and businessman Sam Kephart, are already in the race, but neither has raised much money to this point.
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