OPIOID SERIES:

Dems confident about holding Senate despite being outspent by Republicans

There is surging optimism among Democrats that the party will hold the Senate in the November election, despite Republicans outspending them 2 to 1.

Party strategists don’t treat Missouri as a foregone conclusion, but they are optimistic that this once-tough race has become a likely win since Rep. Todd Akin, the Republican candidate, blundered into damaging comments last month about “legitimate rape.”

ADVERTISEMENT
Unless Akin drops out soon, control of the Senate will probably hinge on Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Democratic and Republican strategists say the Ohio and Virginia races will swing in the same direction as the presidential contest. Few think Republican candidates Josh Mandel and George Allen can win in Ohio and Virginia, respectively, if Romney loses those states.

Republicans’ biggest advantage is backing from outside groups that have outspent pro-Democratic groups by $79 million to $31 million on advertising, according to a strategist who tracks media buys. This includes independent expenditures by the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Republican-allied groups such as Crossroads GPS, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the 60 Plus Association have spent $16 million in Ohio, while pro-Democratic groups, such as Majority PAC, have spent 3.7 million, the media source said.

Despite this, Sen. Sherrod BrownSherrod Campbell BrownOvernight Finance: Senate repeals auto-lending guidance, shattering precedent with vote | House passes IRS reform bills | Senate GOP fears tax cut sequel Dem Senator open to bid from the left in 2020 GOP Senate hopefuls race to catch up with Dems MORE (D-Ohio) has a 7-point lead over Mandel, according to a recent CBS/New York Times poll. Another by the University of Cincinnati gave Brown a 1-point lead.

This has given Senate Democrats fresh confidence.

“Money is a factor, but it’s not the only factor. Having good candidates and a good message with a good record is going to help as well,” said Rodell Mollineau, a former Senate Democratic leadership aide who now heads a Democratic super-PAC.

Democrats are buoyed by President Obama’s lead in Ohio and Virginia, where the fates of Brown and former Virginia Gov. Tim KaineTimothy (Tim) Michael KaineTrump checkmates Democrats in sending Pompeo to North Korea North Korea is moved by Pompeo diplomacy, but Dems dig in deeper Kaine: Trump changing his mind more ‘consistent’ than Haley getting confused MORE (D) are seen as pegged to the presidential race. Obama has a 1.4-point lead in Ohio and an advantage of only a fraction of a point in Virginia, according to an average of recent surveys compiled by RealClearPolitics.

The three most likely Republican Senate pickups are Nebraska, North Dakota and Montana.

“Nebraska is definitely gone,” said a Democratic strategist. Democrats have all but given up hope of former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D-Neb.) winning since conservative newcomer Deb FischerDebra (Deb) Strobel FischerTariff fight could hit GOP in key Senate states Russia, China eclipse US in hypersonic missiles, prompting fears Bill to bolster gun background checks gains enough support to break filibuster MORE won in a GOP primary upset.

North Dakota and Montana are viewed as leaning Republican because both states will vote solidly for Mitt Romney, but the strength of the Democratic candidates, former North Dakota Attorney General Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampHeitkamp becomes first Dem to back Pompeo for secretary of State Dems walk tightrope on Pompeo nomination House, Senate GOP compete for cash MORE and Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterThe Hill's Morning Report: 200 Days to the Election Koch network targets Tester with new six-figure ad buy Senators grill alleged robocall kingpin MORE (Mont.), is keeping the races close.

The NRSC has pulled funding from Missouri and New Mexico, which it saw as pickup chances earlier in the cycle, and shifted resources to North Dakota, underscoring its concern there.

The next round of competitive races are Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. Sen. Ron JohnsonRonald (Ron) Harold JohnsonGOP senator: Congress needs ‘to move on’ from Russia probe GOP senator: ‘Way too early’ to talk about supporting Trump in 2020 IG report faults fired FBI official McCabe for leak to media MORE (R-Wis.) told The Hill last week that he sees his home state as an easier pickup than Ohio and Virginia. Former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson has opened a 6-point lead over Rep. Tammy BaldwinTammy Suzanne BaldwinDem senators unveil expanded public option for health insurance Dem senators call on FCC to protect against robocalls GOP Senate hopefuls race to catch up with Dems MORE (D-Wis.).

Some Democratic strategists say Baldwin would have run better against one of the two more conservative candidates who split the anti-Thompson vote in the GOP primary. Others counter that Baldwin merely has lower name recognition than Thompson and plenty of time to improve it by Election Day.

A labor strategist predicted outside groups would begin to spend significantly on behalf of Baldwin. EMILY’s List is planning to buy airtime for ads in the coming weeks, according to the source.

Senate Democrats are dunning donors in Charlotte this week. Brown has a fundraiser for the Ohio Grassroots Victory Fund scheduled for 11 a.m. Wednesday, according to a Democratic source. Baldwin plans a fundraiser at Aquavina steakhouse at 4 p.m. on Tuesday.

Senate Majority Leader Harry ReidHarry Mason ReidDems walk tightrope on Pompeo nomination The Memo: Teens rankle the right with gun activism Dems to party: Go on offense with Trump’s alleged affairs MORE (D-Nev.) is holding two fundraising events for his leadership political action committee (PAC) Wednesday, one at Halcyon, a restaurant on South Tryon Street that specializes in the “farmhouse-chic experience,” and a second at Fleming’s Prime Steakhouse on East Trade Street,  according to Democratic sources.

Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) will hold a fundraiser for his leadership PAC at the Mint Museum of craft and design, said another Democratic donor.

Democratic Sens. Mark PryorMark Lunsford PryorMedicaid rollback looms for GOP senators in 2020 Cotton pitches anti-Democrat message to SC delegation Ex-Sen. Kay Hagan joins lobby firm MORE (Ark.), Kirsten GillibrandKirsten Elizabeth GillibrandNavy, Marines chiefs say no morale issues with transgender troops Dem senators call on FCC to protect against robocalls Dems see Mueller firing as a red line on impeachment MORE (N.Y.) and Jeff MerkleyJeffrey (Jeff) Alan Merkley32 male senators back Senate women's calls to change harassment rules Duckworth brings her baby to Senate vote, drawing a crowd Overnight Health Care: GOP pushes stiff work requirements for food stamps | Johnny Isakson opens up about family's tragic loss to opioids | Republicans refuse to back vulnerable Dem's opioids bill | Dems offer new public option plan MORE (Ore.) also have fundraising events scheduled this week, a Democratic donor said.

Democratic senators have kept their fundraising schedules private. Aides to Inouye, Reid and Baldwin did not respond to requests for comment.

Republicans need a net gain of four seats to recapture the Senate majority, or three if they win the presidency and Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanFreedomWorks backs Jim Jordan for House Speaker House, Senate GOP compete for cash Some doubt McCarthy or Scalise will ever lead House GOP MORE gains the deciding vote.

Connecticut Republican candidate Linda McMahon, who spent $50 million on her failed 2010 Senate bid, has narrowed the lead of Rep. Chris MurphyChristopher (Chris) Scott MurphyOvernight Cybersecurity: Senators want info on 'stingray' surveillance in DC | Bills to secure energy infrastructure advance | GOP lawmaker offers cyber deterrence bill Overnight Health Care: GOP pushes stiff work requirements for food stamps | Johnny Isakson opens up about family's tragic loss to opioids | Republicans refuse to back vulnerable Dem's opioids bill | Dems offer new public option plan Dems give muted praise to Pompeo-Kim meeting MORE (R-Conn.).
Democrats are spending heavily in Florida to protect Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonScott ramps up spending to million in Florida Senate race Overnight Energy: Trump NASA pick advances after drama | White House office to investigate Pruitt's soundproof booth | 170 lawmakers call for Pruitt to resign Trump's NASA nominee advances after floor drama MORE (D), who was thought to have a relatively easy race.

Upsets in those states could give Republicans the majority, although Democrats do not take the threats very seriously.

While Democrats are counting retiring Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe’s seat in Maine as a probable gain, polls show Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerSenate GOP wary of new tax cut sequel GOP Senate hopefuls race to catch up with Dems Family, friends mourn death of Barbara Bush MORE (R) and Sen. Scott Brown (R) with leads in Nevada and Massachusetts, respectively, blunting their offensive.

This story was updated at 8:02 a.m.