|
On Monday, my polling firm lost a valued client and Colorado Republicans lost their 2008 Senate nominee. Wayne Allard chose not to seek reelection. I could be down in the dumps about this development, but I see some upside.
Allard’s admirable decision affirms a personal sense that the veterinarian from Loveland is one of the finest individuals I have ever served. Polls convinced me that Allard is so widely respected and universally liked in Colorado that he could have broken his term-limit pledge, sought a third term and been reelected. In the end, though, it was a private decision by Allard and his family that sealed the deal. Wayne Allard would be a man of his word and strong values, not a patron of pragmatic politics. So he’s not running.
His decision is particularly courageous when you consider that top Republicans and conservatives everywhere were strong-arming Allard to run. Even former officeholders who honored their own term-limit pledges became ambivalent about Allard’s past promise to voters. Given the current weak state of Republican fortunes in Colorado, some were tempted to put political expediency ahead of principles. In just a short time span, the state’s GOP has lost control of both chambers of the legislature, majority control of the congressional delegation, a U.S. Senate seat and the governor’s office. It has been a slow, steady slide. And losing Allard’s seat — just because of a term-limit pledge — might be the coup de grāce.
Allard would have been the perfect candidate for violating a term-limit pledge. He’s not a fast-talking political huckster who would have subliminally reminded you daily that he lied about term limits. No, Allard’s just a plain-spoken Coloradoan who could have said that he made the pledge before events like Sept. 11 and the war on terror. He could have said it’s time for seasoned veterans like him to re-enlist for another tour of hard duty rather than retiring to a mountain retreat. That would have survived any pledge-breaking charges and won his reelection.
While Allard knew that his decision would temporarily dishearten some Republicans in Colorado and Washington, D.C., perhaps he sensed, as I do, that the GOP losing streak in Colorado is about to end. Someone in a Republican uniform is going to come off the bench and win the next Senate election, blocking Democrat hegemony over most every top office in the state.
For one thing, the Colorado GOP does have an enlightened and moneyed brain trust. Dedicated partisans like former Sen. Bill Armstrong or businessman Bruce Benson uniquely meld acumen and experience in both political strategizing and campaign fundraising. One or both of them should be the next senator from Colorado’s best friend. Add into the mix that the shrewdest campaign tactician and most-feared nemesis of all Colorado Democrats, Dick Wadhams, has returned to the state (from a disastrous tour of duty back East with then-Virginia Republican Sen. George Allen) and you have a winning team lined up to help whomever gets the nomination.
For another thing, the Democrats’ bench may have finally run out of players. At this juncture the Democratic field seems limited to Boulder Congressman Mark Udall, a timorous and weak man. If Allard had not withdrawn, I am certain that Udall would have eventually skulked out of the race. He’s hinted for years that he would run for higher office, but he always demurs. Stick around the political game long enough and you start to recognize dilettantes like Udall. They want the perks and privileges of office, but they don’t like the rough-and-tumble necessary to get there. Like some wannabe who buys a Broncos jersey to be “a player” but could never survive on the field, Udall may faint once the whistle blows.
Hill is director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for GOP candidates and causes since 1988. |