Last week, GOP Rep. Katherine Harris of Florida kicked off her campaign to unseat Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson. While this should be a much-ballyhooed quest in Republican circles, too few GOP insiders seem to be excited by Harris’s launch. This is a mistake.

Katherine Harris is going to win this election for reasons that I’ll outline in this column. But before making the case that needs to be made, let me make a few disclosures. Yes, I did poll for Harris’s successful bids for secretary of state and Congress. But since 2003, I have not served Harris, providing me an opportunity for an objective view of her candidacy.

Harris’s advantages start with her celebrity status, coupled with the low expectations that surround her bid. Let’s face it: Voters today are more interested in celebrities than in politicians. More Americans read People than Time. More people follow “American Idol” than C-SPAN’s “Road to the White House.”

Celebrity commands attention. When Katherine Harris comes to town, people will want to get in on the action. And because of the nature of criticism that the media have aimed at Harris, people will expect her to disappoint.

But when voters see Katherine as she really is — a smart, vivacious and engaging woman — they will be shocked. Pleasantly shocked. There is no way that Katherine Harris won’t exceed expectations, and that’s a major plus.

Expectations are a competitive advantage too. Bill Nelson will always underperform his résumé. Floridians accustomed to statewide officeholders of the stature of Jeb Bush, Bob Graham, Lawton Chiles and even lately Mel Martinez will be disappointed every time they are exposed to the incumbent Democrat. He’s a yawner. “How did this guy ever win?” they’ll wonder. Nelson reached the Senate only by besting an even more boring former Rep. Bill McCollum.

Another key advantage for Harris is her standing in what I call “Old Florida.” I don’t mean among senior citizens but rather among voters whose families have lived in Florida for generations. This is a relatively small yet key swing vote in the Sunshine State.

Until the 1980s, Florida almost always elected Democrats to statewide offices. Even during the succeeding decades, numerous populist or business-friendly Democrat candidates have been elected.
For example, in 1994, when nearly every conservative in America won their elections, Jeb Bush lost to Lawton Chiles. “Walkin’ Lawton” was a special favorite of Old Florida. More recently, Old Florida was attracted to Betty Castor, the 2004 Democratic nominee against Mel Martinez. If not for Old Florida’s votes for Castor, Martinez would have won by a huge margin.

As a descendant of Florida citrus icon Ben Hill Griffin, Harris will be the choice of Old Florida that considers roots over ideology, party or even candidate image.

There are some voters who care about ideology, however, and even here Harris has a comparative advantage. As a proven conservative, Harris will win the ideological vote from the liberal Nelson.

Nelson ultimately will be perceived as more liberal than any Florida Democrat elected in modern times — more than Bob Graham, more than Lawton Chiles. Because Graham and Chiles had spent many years cultivating a moderate, mainstream image, Republicans could never make the “liberal” label stick to them, even when it was deserved. But Nelson has no such immunities, so his demonstrably liberal voting record will send voters to Harris.

Even among non-ideological moderates, Harris will attract a surprising level of support. From the beginning of her service in Congress, Harris devoted herself to a long-standing commitment to environmental protection issues. She has also developed an impressive set of accomplishments and credentials on affordable-housing issues. Not every Republican has such documented credentials that can appeal to crossover voters.

These issues will allow Harris to attract some Democratic votes, easily offsetting any Republican votes that go to Nelson because of lingering angst over Harris’s handling of the 2000 election as secretary of state.

Hill is director of Hill Research Consultants, a Texas-based firm that has polled for GOP candidates and causes since 1988.