The 2008 election is a long way off, but the signs for the GOP are not good.

The Democratic base is energized and the mood among many conservatives is dreary. Democratic turnout in the presidential primary has been higher than in the GOP’s. Perhaps most importantly, Democrats have more money than Republicans heading into the presidential and congressional elections.

In November, National Review, the conservative magazine, wrote, “The plain truth is that the party faces a cataclysm, a rout that would give Democrats control of the White House and enhanced majorities in the House and Senate.”

Yet Rep. Tom Cole (Okla.) claims to discern sunny skies ahead. The chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) notes that many of the Democratic freshmen hail from red districts and that the public is not fond of the Democratic-led Congress.

Cole is an optimist, but he is also a realist.

He won’t make any rash prediction that Republicans will take back the lower chamber. He sets the bar for success at achieving a net gain in seats, not an absolute majority.

Cole understands that Democrats have a huge fundraising advantage this year. Money is important, but it’s not everything, he said during an interview with The Hill last week.

“We will have enough to play the game,” he said.

How well Republicans play the game remains to be seen. They are facing into a gale right now, but Cole says the wind will be at their back during the fall. This, at least, is what he is telling his gloomy colleagues in his self-styled role as conference therapist.

Cole has his share of critics on and off Capitol Hill. The third-term lawmaker last year clashed with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) over the NRCC’s fundraising and staffing. Cole stood his ground, confident in his own competence.

He has been a state party chairman and executive director at NRCC. Without sounding cocky, Cole asserts that he knows what he is doing. The 58-year-old legislator praises Boehner for getting the conference to contribute to the NRCC’s coffers. But Cole also makes it clear who is running the campaign: He is happy to listen to input on how to run the NRCC, but he will make the final call.

During an hour and a half with The Hill’s editors and reporters, Cole spoke about the presidential race, House races, and how he is not counting on the Republican National Committee to assist the NRCC with money this year.

There were two things he wouldn’t talk about — his controversial bid for the open Appropriations Committee seat and his role in convincing Rep. John Doolittle (R-Calif.) not to seek reelection.

Asked whether he will lead the NRCC during the next Congress, Cole laughed and said that decision may be made for him as the 2008 election results come in. Cole knows he doesn’t have the best cards in this high-stakes poker game, but he believes he can still pull a winning hand.