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The Hill's 12:30 Report: Iowa turnout key in Clinton vs. Sanders | Trump-less debate ratings | Grassley hits the trail with Carson, Kasich | Palin on 'Today' Monday
JUST POSTED -- IT'S ALL ABOUT THAT TURNOUT, 'BOUT THAT TURNOUT: Via The Hill's Amie Parnes and Niall Stanage (who is on the ground in Iowa!), with Hillary ClintonHillary Rodham ClintonMichael Moore: Trump will ‘absolutely’ ban Muslims John Lewis betrays his own legacy with Trump comments 'Shattered' to tell story of Clinton's failed presidential bid MORE maintaining a paper-thin lead in Iowa over rival Bernie SandersBernie SandersTrump's Interior pick: Climate change ‘not a hoax’ Sanders to roll out bill letting Medicare negotiate drug prices Sanders warns HHS pick could move healthcare in 'wrong direction' MORE, turnout will determine who wins. Polls suggest that a heavy turnout will benefit Sanders, who beats Clinton in polls among those who have never caucused before. If turnout is low, however, the edge goes to Clinton. Here's why: http://bit.ly/1PYzGNz
WINNERS AND LOSERS FROM LAST NIGHT: The Hill's Niall Stanage has a great breakdown of the winners and losers from last night's debate.
Winners: Donald TrumpDonald TrumpCongress must ensure charities remain safety net for patients Biden to receive ‘welcome home’ rally in Wilmington Health pick’s trades put STOCK Act in spotlight MORE, Marco RubioMarco RubioRubio wades into Trump-Lewis feud 19 companies that Trump has tweeted about Ex-Dem gov: I would have picked Giuliani over Tillerson MORE and Jeb Bush.
Mixed: Ted CruzTed CruzGraham, Cruz proposal to defund the U.N. is misguided Right renews push for term limits as Trump takes power Dissenting nominees give hope to GOP skeptics of Trump MORE, Chris Christie and Rand PaulRand PaulSanders, Dems defend ObamaCare at Michigan rally Paul: Medicaid expansion 'the big question' Rand Paul: ObamaCare replacement goal is to insure most people at lowest cost MORE.
Losers: John Kasich and Ben Carson. http://bit.ly/1PmPpKf
JUST OUT -- CRUZ HAS GOT MONEY IN DA BANK: Via The Bloomberg's Sahil Kapur and Madeline McMahon, Ted Cruz's presidential campaign has $19 million in the bank as of Dec. 31, campaign manager Jeff Roe said at a Bloomberg breakfast this morning. That's going to be important if the nomination process lasts for the long haul. http://bloom.bg/1PnaDHG
Happy Friday! The Iowa caucuses are MONDAY and the New Hampshire primary is 11 days from today (cue excited shriek from your politically nerdy author!). I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of what you missed this morning -- and what's on tap for the rest of the day. Send tips, comments, story ideas and Iowa caucus predictions to email@example.com and follow me on Facebook.
WHITE HOUSE'S FALLON OUT: Via The Hill's Jordan Fabian, Katie Beirne Fallon, the legislative chief for President Obama, is leaving the White House, aides said Friday. What this means: Fallon's departure could complicate White House's efforts to get Congress to pass the remaining items on Obama's agenda during his final year in office, including his trans-Pacific trade deal and criminal justice reform. It's also a reflection of the president's pared down to-do list for lawmakers, a bow to election-year gridlock and Republican control of both sides of Capitol Hill. http://bit.ly/23y6aZ5
Tweet from Politico's Burgess Everett: With little coordination going on between the Hill and White House these days, top Hill hand Katie Beirne Fallon leaving. http://bit.ly/20xWsDr
DEBATE SNUB STILL KEPT THE CONVERSATION ON TRUMP: From Yours Truly, despite skipping Thursday's debate, Donald Trump dominated the conversation on Twitter and Facebook. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio followed Trump in mentions on both Twitter and Facebook, but at a distance. Here's a breakdown of the numbers: http://bit.ly/1OTvpgC
T MINUS 60ISH HOURS UNTIL HEALTHCARE.GOV DEADLINE: Borrowing from The Hill's "Overnight HealthCare," it's that time of the year again. In the final days before Sunday's deadline, first lady Michelle ObamaMichelle ObamaObama wishes Michelle a happy birthday Poll: Obama leaves office with 58 percent favorability Cubs celebrate World Series win at White House MORE is doing radio interviews, DJ Khaled is tweeting, and even Lyft is getting the word out. More from The Hill's Sarah Ferris: http://bit.ly/1SMHsQA
DEBATE TIDBITS AND COMMENTARY: Here's some interesting context and observations you won't read in the takeaway pieces, told from the people who cover the candidates daily:
The Washington Post's Dave Weigel posted a video on Instagram of Jim Gilmore thanking Twitter for verifying him. http://bit.ly/1nCIT7M
BuzzFeed's Rosie Gray
Carson: "You're not gonna hear a lot of polished political speech from me." True. http://bit.ly/1RQMBXJ
Roll Call's Eli Yokley
brb #GOPDebate Trump is on. http://bit.ly/23xDGOU
The Boston Globe's James Pindell
Huckabee is now telling folk tales at Trump rally http://bit.ly/1Kf0fBA
The Hill's Julian Hattem
John Kasich apparently thinks that any policy proposals regarding encryption are too secretive to talk about on television http://bit.ly/1So55xD
also guys if you mention nuclear weapons it will leak opsec so don't do that either http://bit.ly/1SfHlO0
AJC's Tamar Hallerman
Very little interaction between the candidates so far as the moderators hustle from topic to topic http://bit.ly/1KK1bJ0
The Huffington Post's Jennifer Bendery (LOL to the photo)
"Ben Carson, this question is for you. Ben?" http://bit.ly/1nT5lJR
The Huffington Post's Matt Fuller
This is almost certainly Jeb Bush's strongest debate. Makes you wonder how he would have done without Trump on the stage every debate. http://bit.ly/1TrkKx4
NEW HAMPSHIRE CORNER:
WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF TRUMP WINS N.H.: New Hampshire consultant Drew Cline has an op-ed in The Boston Globe making the case that if Trump wins in New Hampshire, it could ruin the primary forever. Cline knows his state. It's worth reading: http://bit.ly/1PEL9RV
BEHIND THE SCENES OF NEXT WEEK'S UNSANCTIONED DEBATE: The Union Leader's Trent Spiner appeared on New Hampshire Public Radio's "The Exchange" this morning, where he explained how the unsanctioned debate came about. The last New Hampshire Democratic debate was the Saturday before Christmas, when voters were "not paying attention" yet. After hearing from readers, Spiner called NBC's Chuck Todd and "in three minutes, [Todd] had said, 'yes he was on board,' but we also had a sketch of what it would look like.' " Todd then called the president of NBC, who agreed. "Most debates take three months to produce," said Spiner. "This will be produced in a week." (No pressure or anything!)
-- When asked whether they had spoken with the DNC, Spiner said they had not heard from the DNC in the past 24 hours. He called next week's debate "the not-yet-sanctioned debate."
Listen to the show: http://bit.ly/1JM2oon
The House is in recess; the Senate is out until Monday, but there won't be any votes until the Iowa caucuses are over.
12:30 p.m. EST: Gov. John Kasich (R-Ohio) holds a town hall in Cedar Rapids, Iowa with Sen. Chuck GrassleyChuck GrassleyJeff Sessions will protect life Justice, FBI to be investigated over Clinton probes Pence meets with Kaine, Manchin amid Capitol Hill visit MORE (R-Iowa) and Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann.
1 p.m. EST: Carly Fiorina holds a town hall in Marion, Iowa. This is the first of three town halls she's holding today.
1:15 p.m. EST: Vice President Biden will deliver remarks on the economy with Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D-N.Y.)
2:20 p.m. EST: President Obama meets with Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter in the Oval Office.
3 p.m. EST: Ben Carson holds a town hall in Iowa City, Iowa, with Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) -- Grassley's making the rounds today!
4 p.m. EST: Gov. Chris Christie (R-N.J.) holds a town hall in Burlington, Iowa.
7 p.m. EST: Ben Carson holds a town hall in Mt. Pleasant, Iowa, with Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa.)
The weekend: It's a mad dash for candidates to meet as many voters as possible in Iowa this weekend. All of the candidates on the main debate stage will be in the Hawkeye State this weekend. Check out The Hill's "Overnight Campaign" from Lisa Hagen for a full rundown of the weekend's campaign events.
WHAT TO WATCH:
7 a.m. EST Monday: Matt Lauer and Savannah Guthrie sit down with Sarah Palin on NBC's "Today."
NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...
Today is National Corn Chip Day!
THE GREATEST COCKTAIL IN ALL THE LAND (I HOPE): The Washington City Paper's Jessica Sidman makes the case for the $100 cocktail in D.C. http://bit.ly/23xKQmv
BEST OF LATE-NIGHT: In "protest" of Donald Trump boycotting the Fox News debate last night, Stephen Colbert hosted an "All Trump" debate. http://bit.ly/1Kfge2r
And with that, send me your predictions for the Iowa Caucuses Monday. Have a good weekend!
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