The Hill's 12:30 Report

The Hill's 12:30 Report
© Milton Bradley

The Hill's 12:30 Report: Tax reform at the finish line | Senate panel rejects Trump's Ex-Im nominee | House rolls dice in spending bill fight | Impeachment looms over Dem choice for Judiciary | Former 'Silicon Valley' star accused of assault in college | Trump robot joins Disney's Hall of Presidents

 

BIG DAY FOR THE TAX BILL

In Candy Land terms...

Republicans are hoping: tax reform will pass through "Lollipop Woods," past "Princess Frostine" and to the "Chocolate Swamp!"

Democrats are hoping: the family dog runs in the room, smashes the Candy Land board and chews the game pieces beyond recognition: 

Republicans are racing for the finish line on their tax-cut bill and are planning to hold final votes in the House and Senate today, finishing off the first major legislative victory for President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump threatens ex-intel official's clearance, citing comments on CNN Protesters topple Confederate monument on UNC campus Man wanted for threatening to shoot Trump spotted in Maryland MOREhttp://bit.ly/2D3v1Mj

WHAT TO KNOW ABOUT THIS BILL:

How long the tax cuts will last: Most of the tax cuts for individuals expire after 2025. However, the corporate tax cuts are permanent -- that's pretty controversial.

Why some of the tax changes are temporary: To comply with budget rules that prevent the bill from adding to the deficit after 10 years. 

Cost: New studies say costs could exceed $2 trillion over 10 years. Yes, but: That's before factoring in economic growth if those temporary tax cuts are made permanent. What the Joint Committee on Taxation estimated: The bill would cost $1.46 trillion -- that's a big difference from the $2 trillion estimation.

Read the full text of the final bill: If you're into that kinda thing: http://bit.ly/2kKWeuU

TIMING OF THE VOTES: 

"House debate on tax bill midday today. Final passage in the House likely early this afternoon, maybe 1:45-2 pm et. Senate debate on tax bill late this afternoon or evening. Senate could vote on bill tonight or tomorrow. Unclear when Trump would sign." (From Fox's Chad Pergramhttp://bit.ly/2Bfmt7A

Why Trump needs this win: The Hill's Niall Stanage has an excellent breakdown of whether President Trump can receive credit for the strong economy with passage of the tax-reform bill or if the widespread opposition to him makes that impossible: http://bit.ly/2BAgYh0

It's Tuesday. Twenty years ago today, "Titanic" was released in theaters. Wow. I'm Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what's coming up. Send comments, story ideas and events for our radar to cmartel@thehill.com@CateMartel and on Facebook.

 

THIS MORNING

It's a no from us http://bit.ly/1SwqYaFThe Senate Banking Committee this morning rejected President Trump's nominee to lead the Export-Import Bank. Who: Scott GarrettErnest (Scott) Scott GarrettManufacturers support Reed to helm Ex-Im Bank Trump taps nominee to lead Export-Import Bank Who has the edge for 2018: Republicans or Democrats? MORE, a former Republican congressman from New Jersey. The vote: The panel voted 10-13. Republican Sens. Mike RoundsMarion (Mike) Michael RoundsTougher Russia sanctions face skepticism from Senate Republicans EPA’s Wheeler gets warmer welcome at Senate hearing Tenn. Republicans to go on offense against Dem MORE (S.D.) and Tim ScottTimothy (Tim) Eugene Scott2020 hopefuls skeptical of criminal justice deal with Trump No, Omarosa was not the White House’s ‘token minority’ GOP senator: If Trump colluded with Russia the world would already know MORE (S.C.) joined all Democrats in rejecting Trump's pick. Why Garrett's nomination was controversial: Garrett was among the House conservatives who waged an aggressive campaign to close down the Ex-Im Bank on the grounds that it is "crony capitalism" that distorts the free market. http://bit.ly/2BJBHRS

 

T MINUS FOUR DAYS

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Because funding the government isn't nearly as exciting when there's no 'four days left' panic: Via The Hill's Melania Zanona, House GOP leaders are pushing ahead with a risky strategy to avoid a government shutdown at the end of the week: passing a bill that they know is dead on arrival in the Senate. So how will this work?: The House puts a bill on the floor that funds defense for a year, but domestic programs until Jan. 19. If/when that fails in the Senate: The House may end up having to pass a clean continuing resolution (CR) with the help of Democrats. Keep in mind: Speaker Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanKrystal Ball: GOP tax cut is 'opiate of the massively privileged' Top GOP lawmaker: Tax cuts will lower projected deficit GOP super PAC seizes on Ellison abuse allegations in ads targeting Dems MORE (R-Wis.) tried to avoid this move, but wanted to avoid blowback from House conservatives. http://bit.ly/2oK0pMy

 

IN OTHER NEWS

Survivor: House Judiciary Committee edition: Via The Hill's Mike Lillis, the battle to replace John ConyersJohn James ConyersConservative activist disrupts campaign event for Muslim candidates Michigan Dems elect state's first all-female statewide ticket for midterms Record numbers of women nominated for governor, Congress MORE Jr. (D-Mich.) as the top Democrat on the House Judiciary Committee will be settled this week, a contest hinging on factors of seniority and gender as much as policy. The leading candidates: Both Reps. Jerrold Nadler (N.Y.) and Zoe LofgrenZoe Ellen LofgrenWomen poised to take charge in Dem majority Live coverage: Tensions mount as Rosenstein grilled by GOP Live coverage: High drama as hardline immigration bill fails, compromise vote delayed MORE (Calif.) are veteran lawmakers from powerhouse states with long and consistent track records supporting liberal causes. http://bit.ly/2yXFuFX

It's a sad day for 'Silicon Valley' fans: Via The Daily Beast's Asawin Suebsaeng, actor T.J. Miller, who starred in the popular HBO show 'Silicon Valley' from 2014 to 2017, has been accused of sexually assaulting and punching a woman while in college at George Washington University. 

How GW handled it: "The accusations were eventually addressed by a student court at George Washington University and have been buzzed about in Hollywood and stand-up circles for years." 

The piece isn't just the victim coming forward: "The Daily Beast has corroborated details of her story--which includes two separate incidents--with five GW contemporaries and spoke to numerous associates of both her and Miller ... the contemporaries later testified in student court about hearing the sound of violent thuds or seeing bruises on Sarah."  

Keep in mind: Miller denies these accusations. 

Full story: http://thebea.st/2kOvIR4

 

NOTABLE TWEETS:

Omg, this photo is incredible: 

  

Each president's approval at the end of their first year: 

Full poll, context and analysis from CNN: http://cnn.it/2BLTBmW

 

ON TAP:

The House and Senate are in.

Today: "[Virginia] Gov. Terry McAuliffe will announce new Non-stop Dulles-Hong Kong service later today. The 17 hour flight will be the longest for Asian carrier Cathay Pacific." http://bit.ly/2kL84F6

11:30 a.m. EST: President Trump met with Defense Secretary James MattisJames Norman MattisOvernight Defense: Pentagon says Trump canceled parade before cost briefing | Erik Prince renews push for contractors to run Afghan war | More officials join outcry over security clearances Erik Prince hopeful Bolton more open to contractors for Afghan war Pentagon: Trump canceled military parade before being briefed on cost MORE.

12:10 p.m. EST: The Senate had a roll call vote on a State Department nominee. Their schedule today: http://bit.ly/2Bdd0hb

1 p.m. EST: The House votes. This vote will likely be on the tax reform bill.

Op-ed: Stephen Moore, a former economic adviser to Donald Trump's presidential campaign, writes that Americans are about to "see a great experiment in economic policy carried out" with the GOP tax bill. http://bit.ly/2yXz8Gf

4:30 p.m. EST: Last votes in the House. Their schedule today: http://bit.ly/2jYhqPv

Just announced -- April 1: John Legend will play Jesus in NBC's special event "Jesus Christ Superstar Live." The announcement on NBC's "Today": http://bit.ly/2Bzrtky

Just announced -- March 2019: The National Children's Museum will reopen in the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. http://wapo.st/2kjtg5V

 

WHAT TO WATCH:

2 p.m. EST: White House press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders gives a press briefing. Livestream: http://bit.ly/2B2nDiR 

 

NOW FOR THE FUN STUFF...:

Today is National Hard Candy Day.

Opening today in Walt Disney World: Via ABC's Karma Allen, The Hall of Presidents exhibit at Orlando's Walt Disney World is reopening today with a life-size robot of President TrumpWhat he says: "President Trump personally recorded remarks exclusively for The Hall of Presidents, just as each sitting president has done for the attraction since the early 1990s." The disappointing part: He's not wearing his famous candy apple red tie. Video and photos: http://abcn.ws/2BzrBjQ

Throwback: A dispute between Disney and the White House over the audio recording delayed the opening of this exhibit. Disney had planned to reopen the exhibit last summer. Full back story from June: http://bit.ly/2sXndHi

If anyone has this woman's contact info, could you pass along that I'd like to be her friend?: Via The Daily Mail, a woman decked out her house in Christmas puns. For example: Her tree is decorated with spices saying hello -- "seasons greetings." Tour of her house: http://bit.ly/2BAz0iQ

These photos are pretty insane: The New York Times published an aerial photo for each major news event in 2017. The perspective is fascinating. It's worth checking out: http://nyti.ms/2ByHCXo

And because you read this far, see how this golden retriever reacts when his owner asks who is his best friend: http://bit.ly/2BK4RAh 

 

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