2020 Dems pose a big dilemma for Schumer

Senate Democratic Leader Charles SchumerCharles (Chuck) Ellis SchumerData confirm that marijuana decriminalization is long overdue Pollster: Kavanaugh will get Dem votes Democrats slam Trump for considering Putin’s ’absurd’ request to question Americans MORE’s (N.Y.) efforts to unify Democrats and prevent a shutdown are complicated by lawmakers with presidential hopes who are pushing for a hard-line stance against any short-term spending measure that doesn’t protect certain young immigrants from deportation.

Senate Democrats such as Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerBooker calls on Kavanaugh to recuse himself on Trump-related cases Anti-Trump protesters hold candlelight vigil by White House House backs resolution expressing support for ICE MORE of New Jersey, Kirsten GillibrandKirsten Elizabeth GillibrandThe Hill's Morning Report — Trump and Congress at odds over Russia Trump: ‘Dems have a death wish’ Election Countdown: Senate, House Dems build cash advantage | 2020 Dems slam Trump over Putin presser | Trump has M in war chest | Republican blasts parents for donating to rival | Ocasio-Cortez, Sanders to campaign in Kansas MORE of New York and Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisTrump: ‘Dems have a death wish’ Election Countdown: Senate, House Dems build cash advantage | 2020 Dems slam Trump over Putin presser | Trump has M in war chest | Republican blasts parents for donating to rival | Ocasio-Cortez, Sanders to campaign in Kansas Senate Democrats block resolution supporting ICE MORE of California have signaled they will not support a short-term spending bill that leaves the fate of these immigrants, often called Dreamers, up in the air.

All three potential presidential candidates, along with two others, Sens. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenOn The Money: Trump 'ready' for tariffs on all 0B in Chinese goods | Trump digs in on Fed criticism | Lawmakers drop plans to challenge Trump ZTE deal On The Money: Trump rips Fed over rate hikes | Dems fume as consumer agency pick refuses to discuss border policy | Senate panel clears Trump IRS nominee Dems fume as Trump's consumer bureau pick refuses to discuss role in border policy MORE (D-Mass.) and Bernie SandersBernard (Bernie) SandersBernie Sanders: Trump 'so tough' on child separations but not on Putin Bernie Sanders tells Kansas crowd: This 'sure doesn’t look' like a GOP state The Hill's Morning Report — Trump and Congress at odds over Russia MORE (I-Vt.), voted against a recent four-week spending stopgap that did not address the plight of recipients of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.

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They argue that taking a principled stand won’t hurt Democrats in tough races because there’s strong bipartisan support for protecting Dreamers.

One Democrat close to Harris said the senator is open to a deal, “but she wants to see what it looks like.”

“She has said she wouldn’t vote for any spending bill without DACA being addressed,” the Democrat said. “She’s open to bipartisan negotiation, but she’s not going to vote for a bill until DACA is addressed beforehand.”

After all, the Democrat added, “it’s up to Republicans. They control the House, the Senate and the White House. It’s their job to fund the government.” 

Democrats up for reelection in states won by President TrumpDonald John TrumpWSJ: Trump ignored advice to confront Putin over indictments Trump hotel charging Sean Spicer ,000 as book party venue Bernie Sanders: Trump 'so tough' on child separations but not on Putin MORE in 2016 have sung a different tune.

Sen. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinPollster: Kavanaugh will get Dem votes Overnight Health Care: Trump officials explore importing prescription drugs | Key ObamaCare, drug pricing regs under review | GOP looks to blunt attacks on rising premiums | Merck to lower some drug prices Dems pressure GOP to take legal action supporting pre-existing conditions MORE (D), who saw Trump win his home state of West Virginia by 42 points, says he won’t vote against a short-term spending measure that doesn’t include legislation to replace DACA.

“We’re trying to find [a deal], but shutting down the government is not going to help them,” Manchin told reporters Tuesday.

Democratic aides brush off any sense of friction, saying Schumer’s job isn’t really that tough on the issue because Republicans will take the blame for a shutdown given their control of both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

Senior Democratic leadership aides are trying to assure jittery incumbents. They emphasize that Trump’s combustible remarks — he told officials at a White House meeting last week that the United States shouldn’t take more immigrants from “shithole countries” — are giving them more leverage in the blame game.

“At this point, the blame for any catastrophe this week is squarely on the president’s back,” said a Democratic leadership aide. “Senate Democrats have been reasonable, we compromised on the wall, on chain migration, and ended the diversity lottery in a bipartisan deal.”

A bipartisan group of senators including Senate Democratic Whip Dick DurbinRichard (Dick) Joseph DurbinSenate approves resolution warning Trump not to hand over US officials Deal to fix family separations hits snag in the Senate Senate Democrats block resolution supporting ICE MORE (Ill.) and Republican Sens. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeThe Hill's Morning Report — Trump and Congress at odds over Russia Senate GOP attempts to wave Trump off second Putin summit Senate approves resolution warning Trump not to hand over US officials MORE (Ariz.) and Lindsey GrahamLindsey Olin GrahamQuestions mount over Trump-Putin discussions The Hill's Morning Report — Trump and Congress at odds over Russia Overnight Defense: Trump inviting Putin to DC | Senate to vote Monday on VA pick | Graham open to US-Russia military coordination in Syria MORE (S.C.) plan to introduce a compromise immigration bill Wednesday. The legislation, however, failed to win Trump’s support last week.

Democrats won a victory the last time the government shut down in 2013 because of a fight over ObamaCare, but the present situation poses more risk.

Control of the Senate in 2019 depends on the reelection of 10 Democrats in states that voted for Trump, including Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.

Some allied Democratic strategists agree with leadership aides who predict that vulnerable centrists have little to fear because Republicans would likely take the blame for a shutdown.

“I think fundamentally this is a bigger problem for Republicans than it is for Democrats,” said Jon Selib, a Democratic strategist who served as chief of staff to then-Sen. Max BaucusMax Sieben BaucusJudge boots Green Party from Montana ballot in boost to Tester Clients’ Cohen ties become PR liability Green Party puts Dem seat at risk in Montana MORE (D-Mont.).

He believes a shutdown over immigration would pose a bigger problem for Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerSenate Dems build huge cash edge in battlegrounds Jacky Rosen hits Dean Heller over health care in first negative ad GOP moderates hint at smooth confirmation ahead for Kavanaugh MORE, a vulnerable Republican whose home state of Nevada has a large Hispanic population, than any Democrat up for reelection.

“How would you like to be Dean Heller this week? He’s pinched up against a Hispanic constituency who has proven to turn out and vote and a hard-right-wing base. It’s a really difficult issue for him,” Selib said.

But some Democratic strategists warn that a high-profile fight over immigration is not a smart fight in the states that will determine the next Senate majority.

They say candidates such as Sens. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterOvernight Defense: Trump inviting Putin to DC | Senate to vote Monday on VA pick | Graham open to US-Russia military coordination in Syria Senate to vote Monday on Trump's VA nominee On The Money: Trump rips Fed over rate hikes | Dems fume as consumer agency pick refuses to discuss border policy | Senate panel clears Trump IRS nominee MORE (D-Mont.), Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampPolling analyst: Same Dems who voted for Gorsuch will vote for Kavanaugh Dems pressure GOP to take legal action supporting pre-existing conditions Election Countdown: Senate, House Dems build cash advantage | 2020 Dems slam Trump over Putin presser | Trump has M in war chest | Republican blasts parents for donating to rival | Ocasio-Cortez, Sanders to campaign in Kansas MORE (D-N.D.) and Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyPolling analyst: Same Dems who voted for Gorsuch will vote for Kavanaugh Pollster: Kavanaugh will get Dem votes Dems pressure GOP to take legal action supporting pre-existing conditions MORE (D-Ind.) are better off debating the recently passed tax-reform bill, which polls suggest is unpopular and seen as tilted toward the rich.

“They’ve got to get back to the issues that impact constituents in their states,” said Steve Jarding, a Democratic strategist and former senior adviser to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “If immigration is not a big issue in their state, why end up talking about it?”

A survey released Tuesday by Hart Research Associates, a Democratic polling firm, showed a majority of respondents in 12 Senate battleground states want to protect Dreamers from deportation and would see Trump and congressional Republicans as more to blame for a shutdown.

Democrats fighting for their political lives aren’t in the mood to take any chances.

Donnelly, who is up for reelection in a state that gave Trump a 19-point margin of victory over Democratic nominee Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonBernie Sanders: Trump 'so tough' on child separations but not on Putin Anti-Trump protests outside White House continue into fifth night Opera singers perform outside White House during fourth day of protests MORE, said Monday that “Congress needs to do its job and work in a bipartisan way to keep the government open and find a solution to protect DACA youth.”

Tester last month called threatening a government shutdown to gain leverage on immigration “stupid talk.”

“You don’t want to shut the government down,” he warned.

And Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillPolling analyst: Same Dems who voted for Gorsuch will vote for Kavanaugh Pollster: Kavanaugh will get Dem votes Overnight Health Care: Trump officials explore importing prescription drugs | Key ObamaCare, drug pricing regs under review | GOP looks to blunt attacks on rising premiums | Merck to lower some drug prices MORE (D) of Missouri, a state Trump won by nearly 20 points, warned her leadership not to draw a line in the sand over immigration. She also expressed some frustration with the influence of presidential politics.

“We’ve got people running for president all trying to find their base, and then you’ve got people from Trump states that are trying to continue to legislate the way we always have — by negotiation,” she said.

Schumer is also under pressure from activists who were outraged that the December spending bill tiptoed around the immigration debate.

More than a dozen Democratic lawmakers in the Congressional Hispanic Caucus marched over to Schumer’s office in the Capitol last month to ask why he wasn’t rallying his caucus to vote down the spending measure.

Twenty-nine Democrats and Sanders — more than half the Senate Democratic caucus — ended up voting against the measure.