Wis. Reps. Ryan, Duffy see favorable numbers in state’s redistricting

Republican Reps. Paul RyanPaul RyanRyan reminds lawmakers to be on time for votes Lawmakers consider new security funding in wake of shooting Paul Ryan: ‘Beautiful day’ to catch up with Bono MORE and Sean DuffySean DuffyFlood insurance overhaul is progressing in House Puerto Rico statehood bid a total failure GOP rep dismisses Mueller probe: 'What the hell are we investigating?' MORE will face an easier chance at reelection under redistricting maps the Wisconsin Legislature is set to pass this week.

The new map makes Duffy’s district about 3 percentage points more Republican, and Ryan’s about 2 points more Republican. Then-Sen. Barack ObamaBarack ObamaOPINION: Dear media, Americans don't care about Obama's legacy Trump tells Democrats they need ‘courage’ to fix ObamaCare OPINION: Nancy Pelosi’s battle against the GOP politics of personal destruction MORE won both districts in the 2008 presidential race; under the new map, Obama would still have won Duffy’s district, but by a narrower margin, and Ryan’s district would have gone to his opponent, Sen. John McCainJohn McCainFrustrated Dems say Obama botched Russia response Coats: Trump seemed obsessed with Russia probe The Hill's Whip List: Senate ObamaCare repeal bill MORE (R-Ariz.).

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The map is expected to come up for a vote Tuesday in the state Senate and Wednesday in the Assembly. Republicans control both chambers. Assuming it passes, the map would help the GOP hold the five House seats it currently occupies in Wisconsin. 

The party picked up two of those seats last fall: Duffy’s district had been held by Rep. David Obey (D-Wis.) since the 1960s, while freshman Rep. Reid RibbleReid RibbleWith Trump, conservatives hope for ally in 'War on Christmas' GOP rushes to embrace Trump House stays Republican as GOP limits losses MORE (R-Wis.) won back a Green Bay-based seat Republicans had held until 2006. Democrats currently hold three seats. In the U.S. Senate, the state has one Democrat and one Republican. 

Duffy is a top Democratic target this cycle, and will continue to be so with the district remaining a toss-up. But in a close election, his new district’s contours will work to his benefit, and could help him secure reelection.

Democrats also had hoped for a major step forward by knocking off Ryan, the House Budget Committee chairman whose plan to overhaul Medicare and Medicaid has proven controversial. Obama won the district with 51 percent in 2008, giving Democrats hope they could beat him. 

But Ryan, who helped design the district map, is off to a strong fundraising start and has $3.8 million cash on hand. His most likely opponent, Rob Zerban, has just $200,000 cash on hand.

The new map keeps Ribble’s district at about the same partisan balance and makes the suburban Milwaukee district of GOP Rep. Tom PetriTom PetriCombine healthcare and tax reform to bring out the best in both Overnight Tech: Internet lobby criticizes GOP privacy bill | Apple sees security requests for user data skyrocket | Airbnb beefs up lobbying Dozens of former GOP lawmakers announce opposition to Trump MORE a bit more Republican as well. Petri, a centrist, has had no trouble holding the seat. But his district went narrowly for Obama in 2008, and he might retire in the next few years after more than 30 years in the House.

Wisconsin traditionally doesn’t redistrict until the fall — state law requires wards and municipalities to finish their redistricting before the Legislature can tackle statewide maps.

But Republican legislators decided to move up the schedule so they could finish redistricting before Democrats have a chance to recapture the state Senate through recall elections against six Republicans. 

To make the maps legal, the GOP legislators will pass a state law allowing them to redistrict without having ward lines drawn. There are challenges in court questioning the legality of this move and the maps as a whole, but Democratic officials have yet to sign on to the court battle.

Republicans have had a busy year in Wisconsin: After winning control of the governorship and Legislature, they pushed through a bill that limited collective-bargaining rights for state employees, leading legislative Democrats to flee the state in protest. They also pushed through major legislation on education and voting rights.

The maps will make it hard for Democrats to capitalize on an energized union base to retake the statehouse. They also make it a bit harder for Democrats to retake control of Congress.