Election Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race

Election Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race
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Welcome to Election Countdown, The Hill's weekly newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Ben Kamisar (@BKamisar) bringing you the biggest stories on the campaign trail. We'd love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at LHagen@thehill.com and Ben at BKamisar@thehill.com with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please).

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We're 118 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 846 days until the 2020 elections.

 

We're nearing the deadline for second-quarter fundraising reports, and so far, there have been three key takeaways in the battle for the Senate--Democrats are continuing to rake in contributions hand-over-fist, Republicans are improving, and holy cow, did Rick Scott raise a lot of money. Scott, who's running against Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonDoug Jones walks tightrope on Supreme Court nominee Overnight Defense: Fallout from tense NATO summit | Senators push to block ZTE deal in defense bill | Blackwater founder makes new pitch for mercenaries to run Afghan war Hillicon Valley: DOJ appeals AT&T-Time Warner ruling | FBI agent testifies in heated hearing | Uproar after FCC changes rules on consumer complaints | Broadcom makes bid for another US company | Facebook under fire over conspiracy sites MORE (D-Fla.), set a record this cycle for the biggest quarterly haul: an eye-popping $10.7 million. Scott has loaned his previous campaigns tens of millions before, but that $10.7 million doesn't include any of his own money, making it more jaw dropping.

 

While we're waiting on Nelson's numbers, Senate Democrats in other red states are still padding their coffers with multimillion-dollar hauls. Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillRed-state Dem tells Schumer to 'kiss my you know what' on Supreme Court vote Analysis: Dark money groups have funded 44 percent of 2018 congressional ads Beto O'Rourke is dominating Ted Cruz in enthusiasm and fundraising — but he's still headed for defeat MORE (D-Mo.) continues to set records, with her biggest haul to date: $4.3 million. And now all eyes will be on Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley, who hopes to take her Senate seat. Hawley's underwhelming fundraising has frustrated Republicans, prompting a shake-up of his finance team he hopes will spark fundraising 

 

Here's a rundown of the others: Sen. Sherrod BrownSherrod Campbell BrownSenate Dems tell Trump: Don't meet with Putin one-on-one On The Money — Sponsored by Prudential — Trump walks back criticism of UK Brexit strategy | McConnell worries US in 'early stages' of trade war | US trade deficit with China hits new record Blueprint to Lower Drug Prices could offer a way forward in fight against mushrooming costs MORE (D-Ohio) raised $3.7 million; Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampDoug Jones walks tightrope on Supreme Court nominee Red-state Dem tells Schumer to 'kiss my you know what' on Supreme Court vote Dem infighting erupts over Supreme Court pick MORE (D-N.D.) raised nearly $2 million; Sen. Bob CaseyRobert (Bob) Patrick CaseyDem senator: Kavanaugh would 'turn back the clock' on women's health care Election Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race Trump delivers another promise to conservatives with Supreme Court MORE (D-Pa.) raised $2.2 million; Sen. Tim KaineTimothy (Tim) Michael KaineDem infighting erupts over Supreme Court pick Election Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race Green Day's 'American Idiot' climbs UK charts ahead of Trump visit MORE (D-Va.) raised more than $2.2 million.

Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerJacky Rosen hits Dean Heller over health care in first negative ad GOP moderates hint at smooth confirmation ahead for Kavanaugh GOP senators introduce resolution endorsing ICE MORE (R-Nev.), the most vulnerable GOP senator, continues to be outpaced by his Democratic rival, Rep. Jacky RosenJacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenJacky Rosen hits Dean Heller over health care in first negative ad Election Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race Democrats break with left on ICE MORE. She raised more than $3.5 million, compared to Heller's $2.38 million. But he still has a cash advantage of $2 million.

Republican candidates, on the whole, are steadily improving now that most primaries are behind them. West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey raised nearly $1.3 million in his bid against Sen. Joe ManchinJoseph (Joe) ManchinDoug Jones walks tightrope on Supreme Court nominee Red-state Dem tells Schumer to 'kiss my you know what' on Supreme Court vote Dem infighting erupts over Supreme Court pick MORE (D-W.Va.) and Montana auditor Matt Rosendale raised over $1 million to challenge Sen. Jon TesterJonathan (Jon) TesterDem infighting erupts over Supreme Court pick Dems in terrible bind on Kavanaugh nomination Election Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race MORE (D-Mont.). And after self-funding the majority of his last fundraising haul, Rep. Jim RenacciJames (Jim) B. RenacciElection Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race Ohio Senate candidate pledges to serve no more than two terms Rick Scott's Senate bid sets quarterly fundraising record for 2018 election cycle MORE (Ohio) raised $2 million, without candidate contributions. He's taking on Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio).

 

In the House, Democrats are also raking in cash and we'll be keeping count of how many candidates continue to outraise Republican incumbents in the top battlegrounds. National Journal's Ally Mutnick has a helpful running list of Democrats raising more than $1 million.

 

Race for the White House

Senate Democrats are feeling the heat in entirely different ways over President TrumpDonald John TrumpSasse: Trump shouldn't dignify Putin with Helsinki summit Top LGBT group projects message onto Presidential Palace in Helsinki ahead of Trump-Putin summit Hillary Clinton to Trump ahead of Putin summit: 'Do you know which team you play for?' MORE's nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Vulnerable red-state Dems up for reelection in 2018 are being pressured to back Trump's pick, while those eying 2020 presidential bids are locked in a sprint to outdo each other in their opposition to Kavanaugh.

 

One of those 2020 Democrats, Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenSanders: Trump should confront Putin over Mueller probe indictments Midterms will show voters are tired of taking back seat to Wall Street McConnell: I won't be intimidated by protesters MORE (D-Mass.), was the subject of a piece by The Hill's Amie Parnes this week about whether she's the right pick to take on Trump.

 

And while Democrats are still nowhere close to figuring out who their standard-bearer will be, The Wall Street Journal reports that Republicans are already getting close to inking a deal to put their 2020 convention in Charlotte, N.C.

 

Survey says…

Axios and SurveyMonkey came out with a new poll of registered voters across Senate battleground states. It shows Republicans ahead in four key states (Tennessee, Florida, North Dakota and Indiana), while Democrats lead in 9 states (Nevada, Missouri, Ohio, West Virginia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Montana, Wisconsin and Arizona). Those states where the GOP is leading will be among the toughest for Democrats to hold, but they've got to be happy with the double-digit margins in states like Arizona, West Virginia and Montana.

 

Democrats got some good news in North Carolina's 9th House district, where Dan McCready leads Republican Mark Harris by 7 points in a new Civitas poll. Democrats have grown more bullish on this red-leaning seat since Harris knocked off Rep. Robert PittengerRobert Miller PittengerElection Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race Poll: Dem leads in red-leaning NC House district GOP candidate who beat Sanford seriously injured in car accident MORE (R) in the primary.

 

And while Texas Democratic Rep. Beto O'RourkeRobert (Beto) Francis O'RourkeO'Rourke's Senate bid raises whopping .4M in second fundraising quarter Election Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race Dem challenger presses Cruz to set debate date MORE is running a historically strong challenge to Republican Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzThe Memo: Trump leaves chaos in his wake in UK Beto O'Rourke is dominating Ted Cruz in enthusiasm and fundraising — but he's still headed for defeat GOP senators introduce resolution endorsing ICE MORE, Cruz remains in the driver's seat in a new Gravis poll that has him up 9 points in the Senate race.

 

What we're watching for

We've got a brief respite from the break-neck primary calendar, but there are still two major races on the horizon. Alabama's primary runoff is July 17, when Rep. Martha RobyMartha Dubina RobyElection Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race Election Countdown: Calls to abolish ICE test Dem candidates | First round of House GOP 'Young Guns' | How Tester is handling Trump's Montana visit | Dem candidate won't back Schumer as leader | Super PACs ramp up Missouri ad buys Trump invokes Pelosi in endorsing Alabama Republican ahead of runoff MORE faces off against former Rep. Bobby Bright for the GOP nomination. And on July 24, Georgia Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and secretary of State Brian Kemp square off in the GOP gubernatorial runoff.

 

Next week marks Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's first visit to Capitol Hill. Expect large swarms of reporters surrounding the Democratic socialist who defeated the No. 4 Democrat, Rep. Joe CrowleyJoseph (Joe) CrowleyCrowley reflects on primary defeat: 'This loss is on me' Sunday shows preview: Trump readies for meeting with Putin Ryan: Dems trying to abolish ICE have 'jumped the sharks' MORE (D-N.Y.). The Hill's Melanie Zanona previewed the visit, which is certain to rattle the Democratic establishment in D.C.

 

Senate showdown

The "Abolish ICE" push may be gaining steam on the left--and sweeping up some of the Democratic Party's 2020 hopefuls--but the issue appears to be a non-starter for Senate Democratic candidates who need to keep moderates on board.

 

Puerto Ricans -- and Trump's response to Hurricane Maria -- are expected to play a big role in Florida's Senate race. Puerto Ricans are now the largest Hispanic group in Florida and the Democratic-leaning voter bloc is still frustrated by Trump's recovery efforts. Still, Scott has shown surprising strength among Puerto Ricans in the race against Nelson.

 

Rep. Lou BarlettaLouis (Lou) James BarlettaElection Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race Midterm turnout surges for both parties Poll: Incumbent Dem leads Pennsylvania Senate race by 15 MORE (R-Pa.) will get a hand from Vice President Pence as he looks to gain traction in his race against Sen. Bob Casey (D).

 

Coming to a TV near you

The Supreme Court fight over Trump nominee Brett Kavanaugh is taking over the airwaves. Judicial Crisis Network, a big player in Justice Neil Gorsuch's confirmation fight, is gearing up for another pressure campaign. JCN launched a $1.4 million ad campaign targeting Democratic swing votes in four red states: West Virginia, North Dakota, Indiana and Alabama. Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin (W.Va.), Heidi Heiktamp (N.D.) and Joe DonnellyJoseph (Joe) Simon DonnellyDoug Jones walks tightrope on Supreme Court nominee Red-state Dem tells Schumer to 'kiss my you know what' on Supreme Court vote Overnight Health Care: Official defends suspending insurer payments | What Kavanaugh's nomination means for ObamaCare | Panel approves bill to halt employer mandate MORE (Ind.) are all up for reelection this year (and voted for Gorsuch), and Sen. Doug Jones (Ala.) is up in 2020.

 

The Supreme Court confirmation fight will have major implications in a few other Senate races and Missouri Republican Josh Hawley is taking note. He's out with new TV and digital ads this week that questions if Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill will vote with Trump or stick with Senate Democrats and her base.

 

Aside from the confirmation fight, outsourcing attacks are popping up in dueling ads in Indiana. Donnelly's team launched a TV ad attacking Republican Mike Braun's business for relying on importing foreign goods. Meanwhile, Braun's campaign hit back with its own TV ad that criticizes Donnelly for his brother's company running a factory in Mexico.

 

Wave watch

The RNC is using its massive war chest to help the party shore up its defenses. NBC News reports that the party has made reached 20 million voters with door knocks or phone calls, and 487 million voter contacts in total as it looks to model and persuade the midterm electorate.

 

It may not be on the front pages, but there's another House special election in Ohio next month. Democrat Danny O'Connor is making a direct play for "Kasich Republicans," hopeful that the GOP civil war in his state has put more moderate Republicans into play. O'Connor is running for the House seat left vacant by Rep. Pat TiberiPatrick (Pat) Joseph TiberiElection Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race Ohio Dem aims to win over Kasich wing of GOP Ex-lawmakers see tough job market with trade groups MORE's (R) retirement. Republicans are hopeful they'll be able to hold the seat thanks to the strength of their candidate, Troy Balderson. But they've all but given up in another GOP-held seat in New Jersey, where the NRCC has officially withdrawn support from its candidate, Seth Grossman, after a deluge of racist and anti-Muslim comments he made were uncovered over the past few months.

 

Rep. Kevin YoderKevin Wayne YoderElection Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race The Hill's 12:30 Report — Sponsored by Delta Air Lines — Trump takes off gloves at NATO summit LGBTQ advocates to protest Pence visit to Kansas City MORE's (R-Kan.) race is starting to heat up--Pence campaigned with him on Wednesday, and The Washington Post did a deep dive into whether the progressive Democrat running in the primary can really turn the tide.

 

In unexpected headlines, Rep. John FasoJohn James FasoElection Countdown: Latest on the 2018 Senate money race | Red-state Dems feeling the heat over Kavanaugh | Dem doubts about Warren | Ocasio-Cortez to visit Capitol Hill | Why Puerto Ricans in Florida could swing Senate race Progressives’ wins highlight divide in Democratic Party Delgado wins Dem primary in N.Y. race to unseat Faso MORE (R-N.Y.) is taking aim at his Democratic opponent Anthony Delgado's rap career, criticizing him for using profane language.  

 

In case you missed it

Some high-profile Democratic House candidates have been raking in the cash thanks in part to viral videos that have turned their campaigns national. Politico Magazine caught up with the ad firm behind some of the most memorable ads of the cycle.

 

The Reno Gazette Journal is out with an investigation into Rep. Jacky Rosen's (D-Nev.) business career, something she touts regularly on the stump, raising questions about her work as a consultant. Sen. Dean Heller (R-Nev.) immediately seized on the report with a new ad.

 

And Buzzfeed has a deep dive into what it calls a "crisis" over at Revolution Messaging, the Democratic digital firm that played a major role in Bernie SandersBernard (Bernie) SandersOn paper, Wilkie is the perfect candidate for VA secretary, but his qualifications go further Sacha Baron Cohen mulls arming toddlers with guns in inaugural episode Ocasio-Cortez to campaign with Bernie Sanders in Kansas MORE' fundraising machine in 2016.