Election Countdown: Trump jumps into Ohio special election fight | What to watch in Tennessee primaries | Koch network freezes out Republicans who crossed them | Dead heat in Texas, Nevada Senate races | How celebs are getting into the midterms

Election Countdown: Trump jumps into Ohio special election fight | What to watch in Tennessee primaries | Koch network freezes out Republicans who crossed them | Dead heat in Texas, Nevada Senate races | How celebs are getting into the midterms
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This is Election Countdown, The Hill's weekly newsletter from Lisa Hagen (@LA_Hagen) and Max Greenwood (@KMaxGreenwood) that brings you the biggest stories on the campaign trail. We'd love to hear from you, so feel free to reach out to Lisa at LHagen@thehill.com and Max at MGreenwood@thehill.com. with any questions, comments, criticisms or food recommendations (mostly the latter, please).

 

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We're 97 days until the 2018 midterm elections and 825 days until the 2020 elections.

 

President Trump has been selective about candidate endorsements -- factoring in where he can have the most impact, while avoiding being tied to an embarrassing loss. That dynamics is at work again ahead of Tennessee's primaries on Thursday.

The gubernatorial primary to replace term-limited Republican Gov. Bill Haslam is the race to watch and one in which the president is notably staying neutral.

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GOP Rep. Diane BlackDiane Lynn BlackTrump’s endorsements cement power but come with risks The Hill's Morning Report — Trump optimistic about GOP’s midterm prospects as Republicans fret Women poised to take charge in Dem majority MORE is battling it out in a tough primary against several Republican rivals, including businessmen Bill Lee and Randy Boyd. Vice President Mike PenceMichael (Mike) Richard PenceTop Senate Democrat: Space Force is 'not the way to go' Why you should take Trump’s Space Force seriously Pence condemns 'racism and violence' ahead of Charlottesville anniversary MORE endorsed Black and Trump has previously praised her for helping pass tax reform during her stint as chair of the House Budget Committee. But having Trump officially on your side--and delivering a coveted endorsement in GOP primaries--would have given Black more of a cushion going into Thursday's primary.

Trump, though, has weighed in on the race in Tennessee's 8th district where freshman GOP Rep. David KustoffDavid Frank KustoffGovernor's race grabs spotlight in Tennessee primaries Election Countdown: Trump jumps into Ohio special election fight | What to watch in Tennessee primaries | Koch network freezes out Republicans who crossed them | Dead heat in Texas, Nevada Senate races | How celebs are getting into the midterms Trump has no plans to endorse in Tennessee GOP governor's race: report MORE faces a stiff primary challenge from George Flinn, a radiologist and perennial candidate. Flinn, who's been self-funding his campaign, has heavily outspent Kustoff.

 

Other races to keep an eye on in Tennessee are two open House seats held by Republicans. Trump won both these districts by at least 35 points, and they're expected to remain red in November.

In retiring Rep. John DuncanJohn James DuncanGovernor's race grabs spotlight in Tennessee primaries Election Countdown: Trump jumps into Ohio special election fight | What to watch in Tennessee primaries | Koch network freezes out Republicans who crossed them | Dead heat in Texas, Nevada Senate races | How celebs are getting into the midterms TSA forced to check whether air marshals show up to work sober: report MORE Jr.'s district, seven Republicans are competing for the east Tennessee seat. The mayor of Knox County and a state legislator appear to be the leading candidates, but the only woman in the race, military pilot Ashley Nickloes, is looking to break through the crowded field.

And in the race for Diane Black's seat, five Republicans are running including former state Agriculture Commissioner John Rose, who's deeply connected in the district and the leading fundraiser. The president won the 6th district by nearly 50 points, and candidates are touting their support for Trump.

 

The Senate race doesn't have a competitive primary, but it officially sets up the high-profile race between GOP Rep. Marsha BlackburnMarsha BlackburnElection Countdown: Takeaways from too-close-to-call Ohio special election | Trump endorsements cement power but come with risks | GOP leader's race now rated as 'toss-up' | Record numbers of women nominated | Latino candidates get prominent role in 2020 Top Koch official fires back at critics: We are not an 'appendage' of the GOP The Hill's Morning Report: Trump tries to rescue Ohio House seat as GOP midterm fears grow MORE and former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D). Democrats haven't won a Senate race in Tennessee in nearly 30 years, but Bredesen, a popular governor who served from 2003 to 2011, has led in some polls this year.

A day before the primary, Blackburn launched her first TV ad of the campaign that focuses on her "strong Tennessee values." Bredesen has also been on the air.

Democrats' Senate Majority PAC has indicated that it believes it's worth investing in the Tennessee race and has made reservations for August and fall TV ads.

 

Special election primer

We're less than a week out from Ohio's special election and things are heating up quickly as Republicans scramble to hold on to a reliably red seat, where Trump won by 11 points in 2016.

Republican Troy Balderson appeared to have the edge for months over Democrat Danny O'Connor, but a new Monmouth University poll out Wednesday -- the first public poll since June -- has the race as a toss-up.

The poll comes on the heels of news that Trump will hold a rally Saturday night in the Columbus suburbs to help Balderson. Trump's visit could give him a boost among the base, whose voters are critical in low-turnout races like special elections.

A lot can happen over the next six days and the race is clearly still wide open, but Democrats are likely feeling pretty good about their current position. If they pull off an upset victory, it'll give them the narrative they've been looking for: that Democrats can compete in GOP-leaning suburban districts that will be key to taking back the House.

 

Senate showdown

Trump is back on the campaign trail, stumping for Florida Republicans in tough election fights. At Tuesday night's Tampa rally, Trump said that "we have to make sure that [Gov.] Rick Scott wins and wins big" in his race to unseat Sen. Bill NelsonClarence (Bill) William NelsonHillicon Valley: FBI fires Strzok after anti-Trump tweets | Trump signs defense bill with cyber war policy | Google under scrutiny over location data | Sinclair's troubles may just be beginning | Tech to ease health data access | Netflix CFO to step down Jimmy Buffett endorses Dem in Florida governor race The Hill's Morning Report — Trump heads to New York to shore-up GOP districts MORE (D-Fla.). Scott was notably absent from the rally, but did attend a workforce training event alongside Trump earlier that day. Trump also touted Rep. Ron DeSantis (R-Fla.), an unabashed Trump supporter who attended the rally, who is running in the GOP primary for governor.

DeSantis made his loyalty to Trump very clear in a new ad on Monday where he teaches his children how to "build the wall" with toy bricks.

 

The Koch network, the web of conservative groups funded by billionaire industrialist Charles Koch, is giving the cold shoulder to Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) in his bid to unseat Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampOvernight Energy: Trump Cabinet officials head west | Zinke says California fires are not 'a debate about climate change' | Perry tours North Dakota coal mine | EPA chief meets industry leaders in Iowa to discuss ethanol mandate Trump’s big wall isn’t going anywhere — and the polls show why Senate Judiciary announces Kavanaugh's confirmation hearing MORE, The Hill's Jonathan Easley reports from Colorado Springs, Colo. In fact for now, the network will only back a handful of GOP Senate candidates in Florida, Wisconsin, Missouri and Tennessee in the midterms as it seeks to freeze out Republicans it believes flouted its brand of fiscal conservatism.

In an interview, Charles Koch acknowledged that he regretted backing certain candidates in the past. "We're gonna more directly deal with that and hold people accountable," he said.

 

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has made endorsements in the Arizona and Wisconsin Senate races. Gingrich is backing Rep. Martha McSallyMartha Elizabeth McSallyTrump signs 7B annual defense policy bill into law Senate GOP campaign arm asking Trump to endorse McSally in Arizona: report Dems eyeing smaller magic number for House majority MORE in the race to replace Sen. Jeff FlakeJeffrey (Jeff) Lane FlakeSenate GOP campaign arm asking Trump to endorse McSally in Arizona: report Arpaio says he misheard Sacha Baron Cohen questions Election Countdown: Takeaways from too-close-to-call Ohio special election | Trump endorsements cement power but come with risks | GOP leader's race now rated as 'toss-up' | Record numbers of women nominated | Latino candidates get prominent role in 2020 MORE (R-Ariz.), and state Sen. Leah Vukmir in the race against Sen. Tammy BaldwinTammy Suzanne BaldwinBipartisanship alive and well, protecting critical infrastructure Overnight Health Care: Four cities sue Trump claiming ObamaCare 'sabotage' | Planned Parenthood hangs onto federal grants | Dems to force vote on blocking non-ObamaCare plans Senate Dems to force vote to block non-ObamaCare insurance plans MORE (D-Wis.).

 

Survey says...

Dead heat in Texas and Nevada Senate races: In Nevada, Rep. Jacky RosenJacklyn (Jacky) Sheryl RosenBattle of the billionaires drives Nevada contest The Hill's Morning Report — Obama’s return sets up heavyweight fight with Trump Election Countdown: Trump jumps into Ohio special election fight | What to watch in Tennessee primaries | Koch network freezes out Republicans who crossed them | Dead heat in Texas, Nevada Senate races | How celebs are getting into the midterms MORE (D-Nev.) and Sen. Dean HellerDean Arthur HellerBattle of the billionaires drives Nevada contest Trump’s endorsements cement power but come with risks Collins and Murkowski face recess pressure cooker on Supreme Court MORE (R-Nev.) are essentially tied, 41 to 40 percent, in a new poll from Suffolk University and the Reno Gazette-Journal. Meanwhile, in Texas, Rep. Beto O'RourkeRobert (Beto) Francis O'RourkeTexas brewery makes 'Beto Beer' for Democratic Senate candidate Election Countdown: Takeaways from too-close-to-call Ohio special election | Trump endorsements cement power but come with risks | GOP leader's race now rated as 'toss-up' | Record numbers of women nominated | Latino candidates get prominent role in 2020 Latino candidates set to play most prominent role ever in presidential race MORE (D-Texas) is neck and neck with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), 41 to 39 percent, in a new Texas Lyceum Poll. But another poll out Wednesday from Quinnipiac University found Cruz ahead by 6 points.

 

Florida's Senate race is also pretty close: A new Mason-Dixon poll shows Gov. Rick Scott (R) leading Sen. Bill Nelson (D) by 3 points, 47 to 44 percent. The poll is within the margin of error, but it's good news for Scott, who previously trailed Nelson.

 

In a new poll from OH Predictive Insights, McSally is the front-runner in the Aug. 28 GOP primary, leading former state Sen. Kelli Ward by 8 points. But McSally still trails Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) by 4 points in a hypothetical general election match-up.

 

Three new NBC/Marist polls out last week bode poorly for Republicans in three potential battleground states. The survey shows Trump's approval dwindling in Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota.

In Wisconsin, one of the state's Trump flipped in 2016, 61 percent of registered voters said they want to "give a new person a chance" in the governor's mansion. That's a bad sign for Gov. Scott Walker (R), who's seeking a third term in office. Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) is also leading her two possible Republican challengers by at least 15 points, the NBC/Marist poll found.

 

What we're watching for

Primary season is back, starting with the Tennessee primaries tomorrow. The next ones will be held Aug. 7 in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri and Washington. That is also the date for Ohio's special election.

 

Trump will continue hitting the campaign trail, with his next rallies taking him to Wilkes-Barre, Pa. on Thursday to stump for Rep. Lou BarlettaLouis (Lou) James BarlettaTop Koch official fires back at critics: We are not an 'appendage' of the GOP Dem senator: Media should stop covering Trump rallies like they're breaking news The Hill's Morning Report: Trump tries to rescue Ohio House seat as GOP midterm fears grow MORE, who's running for Senate, and Delaware, Ohio on Saturday to campaign for Balderson in the special election

 

Coming to a TV near you

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's third wave of fall TV ad reservations total $7.1 million, with much of that going to Dems' battle for seven GOP-held seats that Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonHillicon Valley: FBI fires Strzok after anti-Trump tweets | Trump signs defense bill with cyber war policy | Google under scrutiny over location data | Sinclair's troubles may just be beginning | Tech to ease health data access | Netflix CFO to step down Signs grow that Mueller is zeroing in on Roger Stone Omarosa claims president called Trump Jr. a 'f--- up' for releasing Trump Tower emails MORE won in California. The Hill's Reid Wilson reported from Los Angeles that nearly half of that money -- $3.1 million to be exact -- will be spent in Los Angeles for the seats held by GOP Reps. Mimi Walters, Steve Knight, Dana RohrabacherDana Tyrone RohrabacherTrump campaign aide socialized with alleged Russian agent during 2016 campaign: report Election Countdown: Trump jumps into Ohio special election fight | What to watch in Tennessee primaries | Koch network freezes out Republicans who crossed them | Dead heat in Texas, Nevada Senate races | How celebs are getting into the midterms Dems make big play for House in California MORE and the seat being vacated by Ed RoyceEdward (Ed) Randall RoyceDems seek GOP wipeout in California McCarthy joins push asking Trump for more wildfire aid in California White House seeks to clarify Trump criticism of 'Russia hoax' MORE.

 

Rep. Kevin CramerKevin John CramerOvernight Energy: Trump Cabinet officials head west | Zinke says California fires are not 'a debate about climate change' | Perry tours North Dakota coal mine | EPA chief meets industry leaders in Iowa to discuss ethanol mandate Vulnerable Dems side with Warren in battle over consumer bureau Top Koch official fires back at critics: We are not an 'appendage' of the GOP MORE (R-N.D.) is pushing back against an ad by VoteVets, a liberal veterans group, with a spot of his own. A quick refresher on the VoteVets ad: It quotes Cramer saying that increasing defense spending was "becoming a very difficult pill." It accuses him of turning "his back on our veterans and service members."

The Cramer remarks were made to Reuters in March also called defense spending a "very high priority" and his criticism seemed to be directed at GOP leaders' handling of a massive spending bill.

Cramer's response features a group of military veterans sitting around a table. "I like Heidi. Who doesn't like Heidi? But I don't like the way she votes in Washington," one woman, identified as a retired lieutenant colonel, says, about Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.).

 

The Club for Growth unveiled a new ad spot on Monday resurrecting decades-old unproved domestic violence allegations against Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire Conner McCaskillStudy: 3 of every 10 House candidate websites vulnerable to hacks Unions see Missouri win as red state watershed US suspected Russia was behind 2016 cyberattacks against Swedish news organizations: report MORE's (D-Mo.) husband, Joseph Shepard. The ad also questions whether the senator, who's seeking a third term in office, can be an effective advocate for victims of domestic abuse. The controversial ad drew a firm rebuke from McCaskill's campaign, which denounced it as "an ugly and shameful personal attack." "Claire will not be discussing her husband's divorce, which occurred over 20 years ago," Meira Bernstein, the communications director for McCaskill's campaign, said. "Missourians deserve so much better."

 

Wave watch

Two Democrats locked in Indiana House races are among the latest candidates to say that they won't back Minority Leader Nancy PelosiNancy Patricia D'Alesandro PelosiDem mega-donor to spend M on GOTV campaign ahead of midterms The Hill's Morning Report — Trump heads to New York to shore-up GOP districts Pelosi claims NBC is trying to 'undermine' her potential Speaker bid MORE (D-Calif.) for a leadership role if they're elected: Mel Hall, who is hoping to unseat Rep. Jackie WalorskiJacqueline (Jackie) R. WalorskiElection Countdown: Trump jumps into Ohio special election fight | What to watch in Tennessee primaries | Koch network freezes out Republicans who crossed them | Dead heat in Texas, Nevada Senate races | How celebs are getting into the midterms Indiana Dem candidate vows not to support Pelosi for Speaker if elected On The Money: Commerce to review uranium imports | Lawmakers urge Trump not to impose auto tariffs | White House wants steeper cuts to EPA funding | Google hit with massive B fine MORE (R) in Indiana's 2nd district, and Liz Watson, who's looking to oust freshman Rep. Trey HollingsworthJoseph (Trey) Albert HollingsworthElection Countdown: Trump jumps into Ohio special election fight | What to watch in Tennessee primaries | Koch network freezes out Republicans who crossed them | Dead heat in Texas, Nevada Senate races | How celebs are getting into the midterms Democratic Indiana congressional candidate won't support Pelosi Overnight Energy: Proposed rule would roll back endangered species protections | House passes Interior, EPA spending | House votes to disavow carbon tax MORE (R) in Indiana's 9th district.

 

Democrats' chances of flipping Rep. Dennis RossDennis Alan RossElection Countdown: Trump jumps into Ohio special election fight | What to watch in Tennessee primaries | Koch network freezes out Republicans who crossed them | Dead heat in Texas, Nevada Senate races | How celebs are getting into the midterms Cook shifts two House GOP seats closer to Dem column Trump, GOP launch full-court press on compromise immigration measure MORE's (R-Fla.) seat may have just gotten a little better. The Cook Political Report moved Florida's 15th district from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican." Ross announced in April that he would not seek reelection in November. Five Republicans and three Democrats are vying for their parties' nominations to replace Ross.

 

Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), who is in the midst of a competitive race with Democrat Harley Rouda, this week defended the 2016 meeting between Trump campaign officials and a Russian lawyer promising dirt on Clinton. Rohrabacher told Mother Jones' David Corn that "there's not a person in this town who would not take a meeting to get material like that."

 

A handful of Hollywood celebrities are getting ready to back Democratic candidates ahead of the midterms, The Hill's Judy Kurtz reports. Experts say that liberal celebs hoping to stymie Trump are likely to become more active over the next three months. GOP critics, however, were quick to point out what happened when celebrities went all in on Hillary Clinton's campaign.

 

Forrmer President Obama on Wednesday also unveiled a list of 81 endorsements of Democratic candidates in races across the country. But Obama also kept his distance from some high-profile races. Notably not on the list were Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas), who is running for Senate.

 

Race for the White House

Sens. Bernie SandersBernard (Bernie) SandersOvernight Health Care: States fight Trump on non-ObamaCare plans | Analysis looks into surprise medical bills | Left hits industry group working against single payer Overnight Energy: Trump Cabinet officials head west | Zinke says California fires are not 'a debate about climate change' | Perry tours North Dakota coal mine | EPA chief meets industry leaders in Iowa to discuss ethanol mandate Sen. Sanders blasts Zinke: Wildfires 'have everything to do with climate change' MORE (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenAvenatti on 2020 campaign: 'The truth is my policy issue' Democrats embracing socialism is dangerous for America Lawrence O'Donnell: Secret Service could ‘physically remove’ Trump from White House when he loses in 2020 MORE (D-Mass.) are both progressive icons and mulling whether to jump into the 2020 race. But as The Hill's Amie Parnes reports, many Democrats are worried that there might not be room for both of them in the Dem primary, which will feature a crowded but wide-open field.

The two have worked together on some key issues, but there are growing tensions as 2020 nears.