Weather could drive Election Day turnout

The forecast on the East Coast is mostly nice, with small patches of light rain in upstate New York, where a special House election has captured the attention of the national political scene.
 

Temperatures are in the 50s and 60s in New Jersey and New York and in the 60s through much of Virginia. And many pundits and pollsters are equating clear skies and higher temperatures with higher turnout. 

In the close races in New York and New Jersey, where Gov. Jon Corzine (D) is fighting for his political life, higher turnout is thought to favor the Democratic candidates.

Turnout in urban areas will be key to Corzine’s fate in a neck-and-neck race with Republican Chris Christie, and those areas generally turn out better with good weather.
 
In New York, Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman has the more motivated supporters, according to polls, so Democrat Bill Owens could benefit by having less-apt voters turn out in good weather.
 
Owens also could experience a turnout bump from a visit by Vice President Joe Biden on Monday.
 

Virginia’s governor’s race is thought to be a done deal at this point, with GOPer Bob McDonnell sailing to victory over Democrat Creigh Deeds. But nice weather should help both sides turn out their voters.
 
Vote watchers looking for clues about a drop in African-American and young voters should have a good example of what post-Obama turnout looks like with good weather conditions. Groups are conducting extensive exit polling to examine how Tuesday’s electorate compares to the unusual electorate in 2008.
 

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