Winners and losers emerge in both parties after hard-fought elections

There are plenty of party leaders, political groups and politicians on both sides of the aisle who had a good or bad day.

The winners:

Chris Van Hollen — The chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has won five major special elections in a row, including four seats Republicans had vacated. Although he has long labored under the shadow of his predecessor, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, Democrats now recognize that the team Van Hollen has put together knows what it’s doing.

Michael Steele — The chairman of the Republican National Committee picked a good time to take over the party’s headquarters: Tuesday marked the first time since 2004 that the GOP has had a good election night. He appeared onstage with both winning Republican gubernatorial candidates, and even his sometime foes acknowledge that he deserves credit for putting millions of dollars on the ground in both New Jersey and Virginia.

Mike Huckabee — While other potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates got their hands dirty by backing Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman in the New York special election before liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava dropped out of the race, Huckabee stayed notably neutral. At the same time, he was able to put some claim on Hoffman’s momentum, by virtue of a dinner he headlined for the Conservative Party in late October.

Senate Republicans — Whatever is plaguing House Republicans in these special elections is still an open question for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Meanwhile, the committee saw a purple state and a blue state elect Republican governors with the whole political world watching. It also saw its party win six of seven statewide judicial races in Pennsylvania, which is a 2010 target.

Attorneys — The victors in all three big races Tuesday were attorneys, including former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie in New Jersey and former Virginia Attorney General Bob McDonnell. McDonnell actually faced another attorney, but Creigh Deeds has never held such an office and didn’t have the label attached to his candidacy. With plenty of other attorneys general and U.S. attorneys running elsewhere in the country, they all can be heartened.

Decidedly undecided:

Gay rights — The battle over same-sex marriage could become as pitched as ever following mixed results in two states. Maine voters overturned a gay marriage law, while Washington state voters approved a referendum that would give gay couples every right that heterosexual couples have without calling it marriage. It gives both sides a victory, and will likely propel a new round of initiatives in other states, reopening access to a wedge issue that could have implications down the road.

And the losers:

President Barack Obama — The White House, along with independent polling analysts, have said Obama was not a factor in either Virginia or New Jersey. But if a sitting president can’t energize his base enough to even be a factor, it’s hard to see the election as anything but a dent in the armor. Republicans gained a powerful talking point Tuesday when they won governorships in two states the president carried last year, and now House and Senate Democratic centrists could find themselves under pressure to scale back the administration’s ambitious agenda.

Sarah Palin — The former Alaska governor deserves credit for helping propel accountant Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party nominee in New York, to the heights he achieved. But she was not asked to go to Virginia on behalf of Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell (R), while potential 2012 rivals ex-Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty campaigned with him on several occasions. Hoffman lost (Pawlenty also endorsed him). McDonnell won. And, in the words of one Republican strategist heavily involved in planning for the 2010 elections: Palin’s presence “probably does more to turn people off and draw negative attention than actually accomplish anything.” That lightning-rod position is not where a potential presidential contender wants to be.

The National Republican Congressional Committee —Fundraising lags from the same point in the 2008 cycle, and the committee has lost five straight special elections — including in several seats the party should have won, at least on paper. Something is wrong at the House Republican campaign arm, and despite recruiting successes in races set for next year, the party has not had a big win since December 2007.

Dede Scozzafava — The former Republican nominee in New York entered the race on a high after being courted by both parties to run under their banner. In the end, that is really what doomed her. And after plenty of hurt feelings, a cross-party endorsement of Rep.-elect Bill Owens (D-N.Y.), and her name in punch lines across the 24-hour cable news networks, Scozzafava is now a woman without a party. Of course, if she wants to become a Democrat, she might be greeted as a hero. But then she would also be proving all of her detractors — those who said she was a Republican in Name Only (RINO) — right.

Independent candidates — Hoffman and Independent New Jersey governor candidate Chris Daggett both underperformed, according to late polls on their races, and Daggett really faded at the end. Hoffman’s ascendance might hearten conservative activists, but if we’re talking about an Independent candidate’s ability to close the deal and actually win a seat in Congress (one poll had him up more than 15 points this weekend), he came up short. And Independents still hold no seats in the House. Daggett, meanwhile, polled as high as 20 percent, but his 6 percent showing made it so he couldn’t even be called a spoiler.

Self-funders — New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg (I) are among the biggest self-funders in the history of politics, and both had disappointing election nights. Yes, Bloomberg won, but his result was much closer than expected. It might give pause to some emerging big self-funders like former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), who is running for Senate in Connecticut, and Boston Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca (D), who is running for Ted Kennedy’s seat in a Massachusetts special election.

This story was updated at 8:38 p.m.

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