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Former Rep. Campbell finds his fit in third try
After two tries at the Senate, Tom Campbell appears to have waltzed into the perfect situation.
Earlier this year, the former congressman was looking like an also-ran in his bid against two mega-millionaires in the California governor’s race. And then he had an idea — why not give it another try at the federal level?
The Field Poll showed Campbell leading Boxer 44-43 in the general election and Fiorina 28-22 in the primary.
Boxer is clearly in jeopardy, and her campaign announced Wednesday that she will be the next recipient of President Barack Obama’s fundraising help.
Campbell is raising good money and being talked up as a real contender. He admits the situation is almost too good to be true, and it’s left his opponents searching for answers.
State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore saw this socially liberal former congressman steal much of his conservative support in the polls. He said the result of Campbell’s entry has been counterintuitive, but that its lasting effect will be on Fiorina.
“He delivered a massive blow to the inevitability narrative that she was trying to construct,” DeVore said.
A GOP operative who is opposing Campbell explained it this way: “By design or good fortune, he’s landed in a pretty good place.”
The reason the current environment is working for Campbell is because the focus is on fiscal issues rather than social ones — a set of circumstances that plays to the professor’s strengths and covers his weaknesses in a primary.
Indeed, the National Organization for Marriage (NOM) launched a $275,000 ad buy in recent days that focused mostly on deriding Campbell’s positions on taxes rather than his support for gay marriage.
Campbell is weathering plenty of blows recently. Like the NOM ad, Fiorina’s much-talked-about “Demon Sheep” Web video was aimed at impugning Campbell’s conservative bona fides, labeling him a FCINO, or “Fiscal Conservative in Name Only.”
Campbell has also been forced to apologize for writing a letter in 2002 in support of University of South Florida Professor Sami al-Arian, who was later convicted on terrorism charges.
Both DeVore and Fiorina told The Hill they expect Campbell’s numbers to come down once voters find out more.
Campbell said his more left-leaning positions on social issues should give Republicans a reason to nominate him.
“Sen. Boxer has in the past been able to turn the general election to the social issues; she’s done that every time,” Campbell said. “If she can’t turn things to social issues, I have a tremendously favorable contrast.”
Another big question for Campbell is money. After entering the race in January, his campaign announced in mid-February that it had raised $700,000 in its first month. The next $300,000 took another month, with the campaign announcing $1 million raised in total last week.
A national GOP strategist said money will be key, especially since a main draw of Fiorina’s was her ability to self-fund and tap donors.
“Campbell’s problem in the past is he hasn’t really been able to raise money,” the strategist said. “But he’s done a decent job so far.”
Campbell said the national GOP has warmed to him, even though it has high hopes for Fiorina.
“I’ve received very clear communications that they would welcome my candidacy both in the primary and in the general,” Campbell said.
Even though the polls show DeVore dropping the most since Campbell’s entry, the equation has changed the most for Fiorina, who so far has been the only candidate with the bankroll for a general election.
Fiorina said money remains her ally.
“Money matters in this,” she said. “California is a very expensive state, and Sen. Boxer will throw huge resources at this race. Chuck DeVore has demonstrated an inability to raise money, and Tom Campbell’s fundraising has slowed recently.”
Several Republicans in the state questioned whether money would matter much, what with the combined $60 million Meg Whitman and Steve Poizner have sunk into the GOP primary for governor.
Fiorina is not able to self-fund to a similar extent, so Republicans think whatever attention span voters have for politics will be consumed by that race.
“It’s going to be really crowded, including a bunch of ballot measures,” said a GOP source. “Whether or not Fiorina can cut through the clutter remains to be seen.”
Campbell served two separate stints in the House between 1989 and 2001. After his first House seat was redistricted, he finished a close second in the GOP Senate primary to face Boxer in 1992. He won the GOP nomination to face Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) in 2000, but lost badly, 56-37.
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