By The Hill Staff - 12/16/10 11:59 PM EST
President Obama’s negotiated tax deal with congressional Republicans appears to have the votes in the Senate, but passage in the House will be far more difficult.
House Democrats, including leadership officials, have strongly criticized the compromise plan. In a major development, the House Democratic Caucus on Thursday rejected the tax deal negotiated between the White House and Senate Republicans.
Republicans, meanwhile, have praised it.
Assuming all but five House Republicans will vote “yes” — Reps. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah), Mike Pence (R-Ind.), Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) and Steve King (R-Iowa) have indicated they will likely vote against the deal — the White House needs 44 House Democrats to clear the plan through the lower chamber. In order to scuttle it, 213 Democrats will need to vote no.
But the problem for the White House is that House Democrats control the floor agenda, so there is no guarantee of floor action this month. The Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire Dec. 31.
Most of the “Firm No” votes have signed on to a letter written by Rep. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) that opposes the president’s new proposal.
Please send any updates to Bob Cusack at firstname.lastname@example.org.
LAST UPDATED ON DEC. 16 AT 3:51 p.m.
Firm or Likely No — Republicans (5)
Michele Bachmann (Minn.) — The outspoken legislator said on CNN that she opposes the deal, claiming it would raise taxes.
Jason Chaffetz (Utah) — May challenge Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-Utah) next year. Hatch supports the deal.
Jeff Flake (Ariz.) — Flake told The Daily Caller that he has major concerns about the size of the package.
Steve King (Iowa) — King said on Fox News he is a likely no.
Mike Pence (Ind.) — In an interview with Sean Hannity, Pence likened the package to "more stimulus."
Firm No — Democrats (72)
Joe Baca (Calif.) — Called it "bad policy," according to Redlands Daily.
Earl Blumenauer (Ore.)
Judy Chu (Calif.)
Yvette Clarke (N.Y.)
James Clyburn (S.C.) — The majority whip is a firm no.
Steve Cohen (Tenn.)
John Conyers (Mich.) — Judiciary Committee chairman has been outspoken against the deal.
Elijah Cummings (Md.)
Danny Davis (Ill.)
Peter DeFazio (Ore.) — DeFazio is not shy in bucking White House; he opposed the stimulus.
Diana DeGette (Colo.) — Does not support "Bush tax cuts for the wealthy."
Bill Delahunt (Mass.) — Retiring from Congress.
Donna Edwards (Md.)
Keith Ellison (Minn.)
Anna Eshoo (Calif.) — Close friend of the Speaker.
Sam Farr (Calif.)
Bob Filner (Calif.) — One of several chairmen who will vote no.
Barney Frank (Mass.) — The Massachusetts lawmaker said on MSNBC Dec. 8 he “won’t vote for it,” but believes the deal will pass.
John Garamendi (Calif.)
Alan Grayson (Fla.)
Raúl Grijalva (Ariz.) — Progressive leader in the House.
Luis Gutierrez (Ill.) — This Illinois lawmaker has criticized Obama throughout 111th Congress.
Phil Hare (Ill.)
Alcee Hastings (Fla.)
Martin Heinrich (N.M.)
Maurice Hinchey (N.Y.)
Mazie Hirono (Hawaii)
Rush Holt (N.J.)
Jay Inslee (Wash.) — In an MSNBC interview, Inslee called for package to be significantly changed.
Jessie Jackson Jr. (Ill.)
Sheila Jackson Lee (Texas)
Paul Kanjorski (Pa.)
Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) — A darling of the left, Kucinich voted yes on healthcare, but will vote no on taxes.
Barbara Lee (Calif.) — CBC chairwoman is a firm no.
John Lewis (Ga.)
Ben Luján (N.M.)
Stephen Lynch (Mass.) — Voted no on healthcare despite intense lobbying from White House.
Doris Matsui (Calif.)
Betty McCollum (Minn.)
Jim McDermott (Wash.)
Jim McGovern (Mass.)
Michael Michaud (Maine) — Has been outspoken against Obama’s efforts on trade.
George Miller (Calif.) — Pelosi confidant wants major alterations to package.
Jim Moran (Va.)
Jerrold Nadler (N.Y.)
Jim Oberstar (Minn.) — Another chairman who will vote no.
David Obey (Wis.) — Likened deal to "garbage," according to the National Journal.
John Olver (Mass.)
Donald Payne (N.J.) — "We want a fair deal," he said at a recent press conference.
Chellie Pingree (Maine)
Earl Pomeroy (N.D.) — One of the most conservative Dems on this list.
David Price (N.C.)
Tim Ryan (Ohio)
Linda Sanchez (Calif.)
Jan Schakowsky (Ill.)
Kurt Schrader (Ore.)
Bobby Scott (Va.) — Appeared at a press conference to criticize the deal.
Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.)
Brad Sherman (Calif.) — Has floated ideas to leadership on how to change the deal.
Adam Smith (Wash.)
Jackie Speier (Calif.)
Pete Stark (Calif.) — One of many California Dems who will vote no.
Betty Sutton (Ohio)
Bennie Thompson (Miss.) — Thompson chairs the Homeland Security Committee.
Mike Thompson (Calif.)
Paul Tonko (N.Y.)
Edolphus Towns (N.Y.) — Another chairman opposed to the president's proposal.
Anthony Weiner (N.Y.)
Peter Welch (Vt.) — Spearheaded the letter to rally House Dems to vote no.
Lynn Woolsey (Calif.) — Progressive leader in the House.
David Wu (Ore.)
John Yarmuth (Ky.)
Leaning No (10)
Gary Ackerman (N.Y.)
G.K. Butterfield (N.C.)
Rosa DeLauro (Conn.)
John Larson (Conn.) — Called the proposal “troubling.”
Edward Markey (Mass.)
Chris Murphy (Conn.) — Doesn’t favor tax breaks for the wealthy.
Richard Neal (Mass.)
Bill Pascrell (N.J.) — Said this week he's leaning no.
Bart Stupak (Mich.)
Chris Van Hollen (Md.) — Dem leader said on MSNBC that the estate tax provision “makes it very, very difficult for me to support [the deal] in its current form.”
Firm Yes (44)
John Adler (N.J.)
Jason Altmire (Pa.)
John Barrow (Ga.)
Sanford Bishop (Ga.)
Shelley Berkley (Nev.)
Dan Boren (Okla.)— One of the most conservative Democrats in the House.
Rick Boucher (Va.) — Boucher, who lost his reelection bid, is a yes, according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch.
Dennis Cardoza (Calif.) — Blue Dog Democrat says he supports the compromise.
Chris Carney (Pa.)
Gerry Connolly (Va.) — He barely won reelection and represents affluent Fairfax County.
Jim Cooper (Tenn.)
Henry Cuellar (Texas)
Lincoln Davis (Tenn.)
Joe Donnelly (Ind.)
Brad Ellsworth (Ind.)
Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.)
Bart Gordon (Tenn.)
Jane Harman (Calif.) — Dislikes parts of it, but has embraced the package.
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (S.D.)
Baron Hill (Ind.)
Jim Himes (Conn) — Represents affluent Fairfield County, is a firm yes.
Paul Hodes (N.H.)
Tim Holden (Pa.)
Patrick Kennedy (R.I.) — Kennedy retiring from Congress.
Daniel Lipinski (Ill.) — In a Dec. 15 statement, Lipinksi said, "During these tough economic times we cannot afford to raise taxes... ."
Jim Marshall (Ga.)
Jim Matheson (Utah)
Mike McIntyre (N.C.)
Walt Minnick (Idaho)
Mike McMahon (N.Y.)
Dennis Moore (Kan.)
Scott Murphy (N.Y.) — The good outweighs the bad, Murphy said, according to wnyt.com.
Glenn Nye (Va.)
Gary Peters (Mich.) — White House noted his backing in a press release.
Collin Peterson (Minn.)
Mike Ross (Ark.) — Frequently disagrees with party leadership. Says he plans to vote for it.
Steve Rothman (N.J.) — "For millions of unemployed Americans, this bill literally means food on their table."
Mark Schauer (Mich.) — White House touted his endorsement of the plan.
David Scott (Ga.)
Joe Sestak (Pa.) — Will do so reluctantly.
Heath Shuler (N.C.)
Harry Teague (N.M.)
Dina Titus (Nev.)
Charlie Wilson (Ohio)
Leaning Yes (5)
Tim Bishop (N.Y.)
Joe Courtney (Conn.)
Carolyn McCarthy (N.Y.)
Bill Owens (N.Y.)
Tim Walz (Minn.)
— Michael M. Gleeson, Russell Berman, Mike Lillis, Bob Cusack, Kevin Cullum, Hayleigh Colombo and Hannah Brenton contributed to this list.