Leaders stop budget defections

Leaders stop budget defections

House and Senate leaders appear to have minimized defections on their budget plans in a show of strength ahead of fiscal fights this summer.

The dueling blueprints from Rep. Paul RyanPaul Davis RyanGOP leaders pitch children's health funding in plan to avert shutdown Lawmakers see shutdown’s odds rising Fix what we’ve got and make Medicare right this year MORE (R-Wis.) and Sen. Patty MurrayPatricia (Patty) Lynn MurrayCDC director to miss fourth hearing because of potential ethics issues Week ahead: Lawmakers near deal on children's health funding Ryan suggests room for bipartisanship on ObamaCare MORE (D-Wash.) tested party unity on both sides, but a whip count by The Hill indicates leaders have enough support to pass them.

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None of the vulnerable, red-state Senate Democrats up for reelection in 2014 have so far come out against Murray’s budget despite the $1 trillion in tax hikes the plan contains. The party can only afford five defections in order for it to pass.

Similarly, in the House, only Rep. Paul BrounPaul Collins BrounCalifornia lawmaker's chief of staff resigns after indictment Republican candidates run against ghost of John Boehner The Trail 2016: Let’s have another debate! MORE (R-Ga.) had as of Monday promised to vote against Ryan’s plan, indicating that GOP leaders will stay well below the 15-defections limit to approve the budget over unified Democratic opposition.

Neither budget resolution has a shot at being reconciled with the other, but both sides believe the votes — which could happen later this week — will give them leverage as they head into another high-stakes battle over the debt ceiling.

The budget votes could come at an electoral cost, particularly for Senate Democrats. 

Sen. Max BaucusMax Sieben BaucusSteady American leadership is key to success with China and Korea Orrin Hatch, ‘a tough old bird,’ got a lot done in the Senate Canada crossing fine line between fair and unfair trade MORE (D-Mont.), who is up for reelection in 2014, remains non-committal about the Murray plan. He was known to oppose language in the budget that instructs his Finance Committee to raise $975 billion in new tax revenue.

Sen. Mark BegichMark Peter BegichPerez creates advisory team for DNC transition The future of the Arctic 2016’s battle for the Senate: A shifting map MORE (Alaska), another vulnerable Democrat facing reelection, is “still continuing to review all options as part of his overall efforts to enforce real budget cuts,” his office said. 

Begich told The Hill this month that he would need to see real spending cuts in the budget plan. The Murray budget trims $285 billion from entitlements, but that falls short even of White House proposals. 

Centrist Sen. Heidi HeitkampMary (Heidi) Kathryn HeitkampPawlenty opts out of Senate run in Minnesota GOP's Cramer won't run for ND Senate seat GOP Rep. Cramer 'trending' toward ND Senate run MORE (D-N.D.) was also not ready to commit on Monday after winning election to the Senate on a budget-cutting platform.

Democratic leadership aides told The Hill they are confident they will have the votes to pass the budget plan as it was advanced out of committee. 

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Murray, the chairwoman of the Senate Budget Committee, crossed possibly the biggest hurdle when she won the backing of Sen. Bernie SandersBernard (Bernie) SandersMellman: On Political Authenticity (Part 2) Former Sanders campaign manager: Don't expect email list to be shared with DNC Adult film star: Trump and Stormy Daniels invited me to 'hang out' MORE (I-Vt.) and centrists including Sens. Mark WarnerMark Robert WarnerNSA spying program overcomes key Senate hurdle Dem lawmaker wants briefing on major chip vulnerabilities Week ahead: Tech giants to testify on extremist content MORE (D-Va.) and Angus KingAngus Stanley KingMcConnell to Dems: Don't hold government 'hostage' over DACA Overnight Regulation: Regulators kill Perry plan to help coal, nuke plants | Senate Dems to force net neutrality vote | Maine senators oppose offshore drilling plan | SEC halts trading in digital currency firm Maine senators oppose Trump's offshore drilling plans MORE (I-Maine.) to send the budget resolution to the floor. 

Since then, two more Democratic senators up for reelection from red states have backed the budget plan: Sens. Tim JohnsonTimothy (Tim) Peter JohnsonCourt ruling could be game changer for Dems in Nevada Bank lobbyists counting down to Shelby’s exit Former GOP senator endorses Clinton after Orlando shooting MORE (S.D.) and Mary LandrieuMary LandrieuProject Veritas at risk of losing fundraising license in New York, AG warns You want to recall John McCain? Good luck, it will be impossible CNN producer on new O'Keefe video: Voters are 'stupid,' Trump is 'crazy' MORE (La.).  

“The Senate budget proposal addresses the deficit in a fair and balanced way while moving America forward,” Johnson said. 

Liberal Sen. Tom HarkinThomas (Tom) Richard HarkinOrrin Hatch, ‘a tough old bird,’ got a lot done in the Senate Democrats are all talk when it comes to DC statehood The Hill's 12:30 Report MORE (D-Iowa) is also comfortable with the blueprint, an aide said. 

Senate Republicans hope to use the budget votes to exert maximum pain on red-state Democrats. They plan to offer “many” amendments, according to aides, and the number could climb north of 100.

One of the amendments aimed at vulnerable Democrats will call for a balanced budget. While the spending blueprint from Ryan in the House would come into balance in 10 years, Murray’s never would.

If just a few Democrats break with their party and help approve the balanced-budget amendment, the budget would likely become toxic to liberals and fail on the floor.

That would be a nightmare scenario for Democratic leaders, but it appears unlikely.

Ryan, meanwhile, will meet with Senate Republicans for lunch on Tuesday to try and rally support for his budget plan in the upper chamber. Senate Republicans are expected to vote on the House Budget Committee chairman’s blueprint this week, but do not plan to offer their own alternative.

Sen. Ted CruzRafael (Ted) Edward CruzWith religious liberty memo, Trump made America free to be faithful again Interstate compacts aren't the right way to fix occupational licensing laws Texas Dem: ‘I don’t know what to believe’ about what Trump wants for wall MORE (R-Texas) and other conservatives have criticized Ryan’s budget for not repealing all of President Obama’s healthcare reform law. The plan keeps $716 billion in Medicare cuts in place, but uses the savings to extend the solvency of the program. 

Centrist senators such as Sens. Susan CollinsSusan Margaret CollinsDemocrats search for 51st net neutrality vote Overnight Tech: States sue FCC over net neutrality repeal | Senate Dems reach 50 votes on measure to override repeal | Dems press Apple on phone slowdowns, kids' health | New Android malware found Overnight Regulation: Dems claim 50 votes in Senate to block net neutrality repeal | Consumer bureau takes first step to revising payday lending rule | Trump wants to loosen rules on bank loans | Pentagon, FDA to speed up military drug approvals MORE (R-Maine) and Mark KirkMark KirkHigh stakes as Trump heads to Hill Five things to watch for at Trump-Senate GOP meeting Giffords, Scalise highlight party differences on guns MORE (R-Ill.) could balk at steep cuts to domestic discretionary programs and the implementation of a premium support system to compete with Medicare, both of which are called for in Ryan’s budget. 

Collins and Sen. Lisa MurkowskiLisa Ann MurkowskiSessions torched by lawmakers for marijuana move Calif. Republican attacks Sessions over marijuana policy Trump's executive order on minerals will boost national defense MORE (R-Alaska) voted in May of 2011 against a motion to consider a similar budget crafted by Ryan.

So far, Senate Republicans are alone in voicing skepticism about Ryan’s plan.

In the House, only Broun has forcefully come out against the budget even though it balances the budget six years later than many conservatives would like and keeps the tax hikes approved in the “fiscal cliff” deal. 

Last year, 10 Republicans voted against Ryan’s fiscal plan. But Ryan moved his proposal this year to the right, balancing the budget 15 years earlier than it would have before. 

Even rebel conservatives like Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kan.) and Justin AmashJustin AmashOvernight Defense: House votes to renew surveillance program | More drones, troops headed to Afghanistan | Former officers urge lawmakers to curb Trump's nuclear powers Overnight Tech: House votes to reauthorize surveillance powers | Twitter on defensive after Project Veritas video | Senate panel to hold hearing on bitcoin Overnight Cybersecurity: House votes to renew NSA spying | Trump tweets spark confusion | Signs Russian hackers are targeting Olympics | Bannon expected to appear before House Intel panel MORE (R-Mich.) who voted “no” on the last Ryan budget were holding fire as of Monday. 

The powerful outside groups Club for Growth and Heritage Action were mum when asked about Ryan’s plan, even though they praised an alternative budget from the Republican Study Committee that would balance in four years.

Congressional leaders also appear to be on track to avoid a government shutdown.

A $984 billion spending bill to fund the government appears to have enough bipartisan support to clear the Senate with 60 votes.

Senate Majority Leader Harry ReidHarry Mason ReidDems search for winning playbook Dems face hard choice for State of the Union response The Memo: Immigration battle tests activists’ muscle MORE (D-Nev.) vowed to pull out all the stops to avert a shutdown, and he forced a cloture vote to proceed to the bill on Monday. That vote succeeded 63-35.

Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Barbara MikulskiBarbara MikulskiClinton: White House slow-walking Russia sanctions Top Lobbyists 2017: Hired Guns Gore wishes Mikulski a happy birthday at 'Inconvenient Sequel' premiere MORE (D-Md.) and ranking member Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) were unable earlier in the day to whittle down the more than 90 amendments to the six-month spending bill.

Even though the Senate bill differs from the House version, there is little will in either party to shut down the government after March 27.

Alexander Bolton contributed to this report.