By The Hill staff - 03/21/10 10:17 PM EDT
RECENT UPDATES: Reps. Jim Cooper, Paul Kanjorski, Mike McMahon, Bart Stupak, Nick Rahall, Kathy Dahlkemper, Joe Donnelly, Alan Mollohan, Steve Driehaus, Earl Pomeroy, Bill Foster, John Tanner, Dale Kildee, Charlie Melancon, Lincoln Davis, Brian Baird, Loretta Sanchez, Solomon Ortiz, Marcy Kaptur, David Wu, Ron Kind, Bruce Braley, Gabrielle Giffords, Kurt Schrader, Glenn Nye, Loretta Sanchez, Mike Capuano, Jim Langevin, Jerry McNerney, Jim Matheson, Zack Space, John Hall, Henry Cuellar, Shelley Berkley, Marcia Fudge, Ciro Rodriguez, Sanford Bishop, Chris Carney, Dennis Cardoza, Melissa Bean, John Tanner, Ike Skelton, Jim Costa, Bruce Braley, Paul Tonko, Mike Quigley, Mary Jo Kilroy, Baron Hill, Tim Holden, Bill Owens, Mike Ross, Bart Stupak, Marion Berry, John Barrow, Harry Teague, Michael Arcuri, Scott Murphy, Harry Mitchell, John Salazar, Tim Bishop, Bob Etheridge, Suzanne Kosmas, Brad Ellsworth, Jason Altmire, Joe Courtney, John Adler, Allen Boyd, Adam Smith, Dina Titus, Chris Murphy, Peter DeFazio, John Boccieri and Charlie Wilson
House Democrats not on this list are expected to vote yes.
All House Republicans are expected to vote no, but President Barack Obama has reportedly called Rep. Joseph Cao (R-La.) to urge him to vote yes. However, Cao, who is a proponent of the Stupak language, is still expected to reject the bill.
If every member votes and all GOP lawmakers vote no, the maximum number of Democratic defections to pass a bill is 37, which would result in a 216-215 tally.
* — Voted for Stupak amendment in November
(Y) — Voted yes in November
(N) — Voted no in November
Firm No, Leaning No, Likely No (35)
John Adler (N.J.) (N) Adler announced March 18 he will vote no
Jason Altmire (Pa.) * (N) Announced March 19 he is going to vote no, saying, "I strongly believe that a vote in opposition to the health care bill is consistent with the views of the district I represent." On March 16, Altmire told Fox Business Network that he has major problem with Democrats' "deem and pass" strategy, calling it "wrong." Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.) told McClatchy Newspapers earlier this month he was targeting Altmire
Michael Arcuri (N.Y.) (Y) He is now a firm no. His statement reads, "And after several meetings and conversations with the president, Speaker of the House, administration officials and colleagues, I am not convinced enough changes can be made to the Senate health care bill to meet the needs of the people in my district."
John Barrow (Ga.) * (N) Announced on March 19 he is a no. Barrow told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "It puts too much of the burden of paying for it on working folks who are already being overcharged, and that’s not fair. It threatens to overwhelm Medicaid in Georgia, and that's not right. And it barely touches the insurance companies, and that's not smart." Barrow had been considered a likely no vote. He voted no last year in committee and on floor.
Marion Berry (Ark.) * (Y) Berry has not been talking publicly recently. Berry, who is retiring, could be a yes. However, he has been critical of the president since announcing his retirement. Strong backer of Stupak language. Voted yes in Budget Committee markup on March 15. He voted no on climate change last year
Dan Boren (Okla.) * (N) Won't be changing his mind — firm no
Rick Boucher (Va.) (N) GOP target who has told local press outlets in Virginia he has major problems with Medicare cuts and "unsavory dealmaking" that benefited Nebraska, Louisiana and Florida. Leaning no
Bobby Bright (Ala.) * (N) Voted against House health bill, stimulus and climate change. Firm no
Ben Chandler (Ky.) * (N) His office told The Hill on March 15: “Congressman Chandler’s position on the bill remains the same. He expects to vote against the legislation.”
Travis Childers (Miss.) * (N) Told the Daily Journal he will vote no, citing lack of strong language on abortion funding. From Childers's statement: "While I cannot vote for current House legislation, I remain committed to effective, fiscally responsible healthcare reform that makes sense for North Mississippi."
Jerry Costello (Ill.) * (Y) One of his senior aides, David Gillies, told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that Costelllo will vote no on the Senate bill. Most of the calls, e-mails and letters he has received have advised a no vote. His office did say he was "undecided" on the reconciliation legislation if it comes up for a vote.
Artur Davis (Ala.) * (N) Running for governor, but will make sure to return to D.C. to vote no
Lincoln Davis (Tenn.) * (N) In a major development, Davis told The Hill March 21 he will vote no, saying, "I'm going to vote exactly the same way." Davis voted no in November
Chet Edwards (Texas) (N) Perennial GOP target. Edwards spokesman told CNN he will vote no. Votes no at March 15 Budget Committee markup
Larry Kissell (N.C.) (N) GOP target, but reelection chances on the rise. Firm no
Frank Kratovil (Md.) (N) Voted for climate change; says he will vote no
Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (S.D.) (N) Congresswoman told the Rapid City Journal she's a no, noting she is not a fan of reconciliation. She also voted no on education reform bill expected to move in reconciliation with healthcare reform
Tim Holden (Pa.) * (N) The Morning Call reported March 20 that Holden received a call from President Barack Obama, and told him he will be voting no. Has expressed concerns about cuts to Medicare. Voted against healthcare and climate change in 2009.
Daniel Lipinski (Ill.) * (Y) Will not vote for abortion language in Senate bill, but has other concerns as well. Democratic leaders cannot count on Lipinski
Stephen Lynch (Mass.) * (Y) Says he will vote no. Proponent of Stupak language. Has major problems with "deem and pass" strategy. Told Politico, "I don’t buy the argument that he’s done if this doesn’t pass. He’s got three more years. He can recover.”
Jim Marshall (Ga.) * (N) Perennial GOP target, but favored to win reelection. Told The Hill he's a no
Jim Matheson (Utah) * (N) Announced on March 20 he will vote on no. He voted no last year, both on the floor and in committee
Mike McIntyre (N.C.) * (N) Seven-term lawmaker rejected House health bill and climate change. Spokesman tells The Hill McIntyre is a no. Expected to win reelection easily even though Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won district
Mike McMahon (N.Y.) (N) The Staten Island Advance confirmed Sunday that McMahon remains a firm no vote despite calls from the White House. He suggested last month he was a no to the Staten Island Advance. McMahon told The Hill on March 12 he is leaning no. Voted no on education reform bill that is expected to move with healthcare reform in reconciliation
Charlie Melancon (La.) * (N) He is now a firm no. Senate hopeful voted no in November and no in committee.
Walt Minnick (Idaho) (N) One of the House's most conservative members. Firm no
Glenn Nye (Va.) (N) His no vote is a big setback for Democratic leaders. Nye announced his vote late on March 20. A press release cited "potential problems for TRICARE recipients, the cost of the bill, and cuts to children's hospitals. Nye is in a toss-up race. He voted no on climate change in 2009
Collin Peterson (Minn.) * (N) Ag chairman not shy in bucking leadership. Firm no
Mike Ross (Ark.) * (N) AP reported March 19 that Ross is a firm no.
Heath Shuler (N.C.) * (N) CNN reporting Shuler is a no. Doesn't hold his tongue when he opposes Democratic leaders. Critic of reconciliation. Gannett New Services reports Shuler is leaving himself wiggle room. Shuler said: "Until I know the details of the final bill and the process, I am reluctant to draw a line in the sand."
Ike Skelton (Mo.) * (N) GOP targeting his seat. Armed Services Committee chairman is a firm no. He reiterated his no vote on the House floor on March 20
Zack Space (Ohio) * (Y) In big setback for House leaders, Space announced on March 20 he will vote no. He voted yes in committee and yes on the floor last year
Gene Taylor (Miss.) * (N) Has been a firm no all Congress. Constituents last summer urged him to get others to vote no
John Tanner (Tenn.) * (N) CNN and the Plum Line reporting Tanner is a no. Huge blow for Democrats. Tanner, who is not running for reelection, voted no last November
Harry Teague (N.M.) * (N) Announced March 19 that he is a no and ripped the bill for doing more for insurance companies than the uninsured: "In fact, I believe we are doing more for the insurance companies than we are for the people who need this coverage, and that is why, despite the positive steps it takes, I must vote against this bill."
Bobby Rush (Ill.) (Y) Surprise addition to this list. Said he was undecided on March 18. The Hill reported that Rush engaged in several discussions with leadership lawmakers after announcing his position. Concerned about bill's impact on hospitals in poor areas. Still, liberal congressman is a likely yes. Rush defeated Barack Obama in 2000 House primary
Loretta Sanchez (Calif.) (Y) It was reported on March 21 she will show up for vote, but unclear if she will vote yes. Was a late yes in November
Firm Yes, Leaning Yes, or Likely Yes (87)
Joe Baca (Calif.) * (Y) Must-have for leadership and was at 3/18 CHC press conference where lawmakers announced they would vote for the bill
Brian Baird (Wash.) (N) Announced on the afternoon of March 21 he is a yes. Big yes for Democrats. Baird, who is not seeking reelection, voted no last year
Melissa Bean (Ill.) (Y) Centrist announced on March 20 she will vote yes
Shelley Berkley (Nev.) (Y) Announced that she is a yes vote
Sanford Bishop Jr. (Ga.) * (Y) Favors Stupak provision, but will vote yes
Tim Bishop (N.Y.) (Y) Must-have vote for leadership. Bishop's office told CNN that the New York lawmaker wants major changes to Senate bill. Voted yes in March 15 Budget Committee markup
John Boccieri (Ohio) * (N) Announced he will vote yes at a March 19 presser. He said: "Yes, I will be voting yes for the bill. I was very encouraged by the budget results that came back from the Congressional Budget Office." Clyburn had publicly said he was leaning on Boccieri, who is in a tough reelection race
Leonard Boswell (Iowa) Firm yes
Allen Boyd (Fla.) (N) Big yes for Democrats. Boyd said on March 19 he is a yes. Voted no on March 15 during Budget Committee markup and voted no on last year's bill
Bruce Braley (Iowa) (Y) Another convert because of the deal worked out on Medicare rates. Had been seen as an expected yes vote.
Michael Capuano (Y) Announced on March 20 he is a yes
Dennis Cardoza (Calif.) * (Y) After Speaker ditched "deem and pass," Cardoza announced his support of bill on March 20
Russ Carnahan (Mo.) (Y) Announced his support of bill on March 18. In competitive race this fall, but should win
Chris Carney (Pa.) * (Y) Big yes vote for Democratic leaders. Announced his vote on March 20. On March 19, Carney was seen on the floor talking to Majority Whip James Clyburn (D-S.C.). Carney this month told the Scranton Times-Shamrock, "As I said publicly, I can't vote for a bill that will publicly fund abortion."
Gerry Connolly (Va.) (Y) As expected, Connolly is a yes. Obama visited Connolly's Fairfax, Va.-district on Friday. Obama didn't have to worry about Connolly's vote. Voted yes in Budget Committee markup on March 15
Jim Cooper (Tenn.) * (Y) Released a statement Sunday on his website that he will vote for healthcare reform.
Jim Costa (Calif.) * (Y) Costa told Politico on March 20 that he will vote yes.
Joe Courtney (Conn.) (Y) Announced on March 19 he is a yes. Had expressed concerns about excise tax
Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.) * (Y) Dahlkemper is among the members moving to the yes column with Stupak. A GOP target, her yes vote could be key to passage.
Peter DeFazio (Ore.) (Y) DeFazio and Democratic leaders on March 20 worked out a deal on Medicare reimbursements, securing DeFazio's vote.
Joe Donnelly (Ind.) * (Y) Among the Stupak dozen. He moves to the yes column with Stupak.
Mike Doyle (Pa.) * (Y) Doyle told The Hill on March 16 that he will likely vote yes
Steve Driehaus (Ohio) * (Y) In toss-up race in November who is ardent backer of Stupak language. Stupak's deal with the White House on an executive order moves him to the yes column.
Brad Ellsworth (Ind.) * (Y) Seneta hopeful said on March 19 he is a yes, which is a huge get for Democratic leaders
Henry Cuellar (Texas) * (Y) Cuellar announced on March 20 that he is a yes. Under pressure from Speaker and the president, Cuellar backed the climate change bill and House healthcare measure last year.
Eliot Engel (N.Y.) (Y) Said on MSNBC March 19 he is a yes, but that was expected
Bob Etheridge (N.C.) * (Y) Announced March 19 he is a yes
Bill Foster (Ill.) (Y) Announced on March 21 he is a yes. Democratic leaders needed his yes vote badly
Marcia Fudge (Ohio) (Y) Fudge announced this weekend she is a yes vote. Obama lobbied for her vote, giving her a ride on Air Force One on March 15
Gabrielle Giffords (Ariz.) (Y) Was one of 10 Democrats to vote with Republicans on resolution criticizing "deem and pass" strategy on March 18. But GOP target on Saturday announced she will vote yes.
Dale Kildee (Mich.) * (Y) Not one of Stupak's Dozen. Firm yes. Defended bill in floor speech on March 21
John Garamendi (Calif.) (Y) Vowed last summer to vote against any bill without a public option, but his office says Garamendi is a firm yes and will keep fighting for the public option
Bart Gordon (Tenn.) * (N) Gordon said in a March 18 statement on the bill: "I am supporting it."
Luis Gutierrez (Ill.) (Y) Said at a March 18 press conference he will vote for the bill because he got a renewed commitment to immigration reform from President Barack Obama.
Raul Grijalva (Ariz.) (Y) Grijalva was at 3/18 CHC press conference where lawmakers announced they would vote for the bill
John Hall (N.Y.) (Y) Hall announced on March 20 he will vote yes
Debbie Halvorson (Ill.) (Y) Announced on March 20 she is a yes
Baron Hill (Ind.) * (Y) Announced on March 20 he is a yes
Jim Himes (Conn.) (Y) Will vote yes
Steve Kagen (Wis.) (Y) Told Fox 11 in Wisconsin that he prefers more incremental approach. But on March 13 he said, "We're going to find and secure enough votes to pass healthcare ... "
Marcy Kaptur (Ohio) * (Y) Announced Sunday she's convinced the new law will keep federal funding from going to abortion services.
Mary Jo Kilroy (Ohio) (Y) Announced on March 19 she will vote yes.
Paul Kanjorski (Pa.) * (Y) Released a statement on his web site announcing his support. He said the bill would not allow federal funds to pay for abortions.
Ron Kind (Wis.) (Y) Announced this weekend he is a yes. Voted against bill in committee, but a deal on Medicare reimbursements has brought him to the yes column.
Ann Kirkpatrick (Ariz.) (Y) Congresswoman on March 16 said she's a yes, asserting bill will enhance the healthcare of children and seniors. Kirkpatrick voted against climate change bill in 2009. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) won Kirkpatrick's district by 10 points in the 2008 presidential election
Ron Klein (Fla.) (Y) He is a firm yes now. Klein is a GOP target, but he urged other Democrats to vote for healthcare reform in a speech on the floor Saturday.
Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.) (N) In a big boost to the chances of health reform passing, Kosmas announced on March 19 she is a yes. President Obama urges her to support the measure during a recent meeting in the Oval Office, according to March 16 AP report. Kosmas voted no last year
Dennis Kucinich (Ohio) (N) His yes vote, announced on March 17, is a huge boost to the chances of healthcare reform passing. Kucinich is first no vote in 2009 to commit to voting for yes. Before supporting bill, Kucinich had blasted it on cable news networks
Jim Langevin (R.I.) * (Y) Langevin told The Hill March 20 he will vote yes. Langevin voted for Stupak language
David Loebsack (Iowa) (Y) Will vote yes
Dan Maffei (N.Y.) (Y) On March 16, Maffei said, "I'm proud to support this legislation."
Betsy Markey (Colo.) (N) The Denver Post reports she will vote for the bill
Jerry McNerney (Calif.) (Y) Announced on March 20 he will vote yes
Mike Michaud (Maine) * (Y) Expected yes vote
Harry Mitchell (Ariz.) (Y) Announced on March 19 he will vote yes. Big pickup for Democrats
Alan Mollohan (W.Va.) * (Y) In November, seat was considered safe. Now, he's in a tight race. But he moves to the yes column because of Stupak's deal with the White House.
Dennis Moore (Kan.) (Y) Firm yes. Retiring this year. New Budget Committee member voted yes in March 15 markup
Chris Murphy (Conn.) (Y) GOP target said on March 19 he will vote yes
Scott Murphy (N.Y.) (N) Announced on March 19 he is a yes. Murphy was personally lobbied by President Barack Obama and later, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Soon after meeting with Pelosi on March 19, he announced he was a yes vote
Richard Neal (Mass.) * (Y) Fan of Stupak language, but will vote yes
Jim Oberstar (Minn.) * (Y) Wants Stupak language but told Politico of Senate bill: "On balance, it does what we need to do."
David Obey (Wis.) * (Y) Voted for Stupak bill but will vote with his party
Solomon Ortiz (Texas) * (Y) Dallas Morning News reports March 21 Ortiz is a yes. Was a late yes last time around. Rejected climate change last June
Bill Owens (N.Y.) (Y) Announced on March 20 he will vote yes. Latest upstate New York Democrat to vote yes, following Reps. Scott Murphy and Dan Maffei.
Tom Perriello (Va.) * (Y) Said he will vote yes on March 19 if gets assurance from 51 senators that bill will be amended in the upper chamber. In toss-up race this fall; Pelosi had long talk with the Virginia Democrat on March 10 on the House floor
Earl Pomeroy (N.D.) * (Y) Announced on March 21 he is a yes. Voted against bill in committee, and for it on the House floor Rejected climate change bill last year.
Mike Quigley (Ill.) (Y) Quigley said Sunday he would vote yes as long as there are no changes to the legislation that would compromise abortion rights.
Nick Rahall (W.Va.) * (Y) Rahall is another of the members who moves to the yes column because of the Stupak language.
Silvestre Reyes (Texas) * (Y) Intelligence panel chairman on board
Ciro Rodriguez (Texas) * (Y) San Antonio Express-News reporting that Rodriguez is a yes vote. Considered by Cook Political Report to "likely" retain seat. Bucked his leadership by voting no on climate change measure last summer
Tim Ryan (Ohio) * (Y) On March 16, Ryan said on the House floor, "We need to pass this bill." Congressman voted for Stupak language
John Salazar (Colo.) * (Y) GOP target told the Denver Post he is a yes
Mark Schauer (Mich.) (Y) Told the Citizen Patriot he will vote for the bill. Schauer said: “I needed to see the bill and the Congressional Budget Office score. The bill fundamentally does what I hoped it would.”
Adam Schiff (Calif.) (Y) Firm yes
Kurt Schrader (Ore.) (Y) He told local media on Saturday that he planned to vote for the healthcare bill. A deal on Medicare reimbursements with the White House pulled him over. The Budget Committee member didn't vote during March 15 markup and is in a competitive reelection race.
Carol Shea-Porter (N.H.) (Y) Spoke out favorably on healthcare reform on the House floor on March 16. In a toss-up reelection race, according to Cook Political Report.
John Spratt (S.C.) * (Y) Budget Committee chairman is in competitive reelection race. Spratt will soon be trying to collect votes for his budget resolution. Voted yes in Budget Committee markup on March 15
Adam Smith (Wash.) (Y) Will approve bill
Vic Snyder (Ark.) * (Y) Has gone from lean yes to firm yes. Not seeking reelection
Bart Stupak (Mich.) * (Y) Announces deal with the White House on abortion. His turn likely puts Democrats over the top. Stupak is leading a group of eight or nine Democrats who will now vote for the bill.
Betty Sutton (Ohio) (Y) Told the Cleveland Plain-Dealer: "The legislation is not perfect and indeed contains provisions that I will continue to strive to improve, but I will vote for the bill."
Dina Titus (Nev.) (Y) Announced on March 19 she is a yes
Paul Tonko (N.Y.) (Y) Said on March 19 he will vote yes
Anthony Weiner (N.Y.) (Y) On March 12, Weiner noted that 290 times this Congress, the Senate has failed to act on bills passed by the House, adding, "Fool us once, shame on you, fool me 290 times, shame on us." Regardless, Weiner is a very likely yes
Charlie Wilson (Ohio) * (Y) Announced on March 19 he is a yes. Considered less vulnerable this fall than other Ohio Democrats.
David Wu (Ore.) (Y) Announced Saturday he's voting yes. He and other members have received a letter from Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius committing the administration to fixing Medicare reimbursement rate disparities. Republicans are targeting Wu this fall
John Yarmuth (Ky.) (Y) Voted yes in Budget Committee markup on March 15
Bob Cusack, Molly K. Hooper, Jeffrey Young, Aaron Blake, Kevin Bogardus, Lauren Victoria Burke, Walter Alarkon, Christina Wilkie, Roxana Tiron, Kevin Bogardus, Jared Allen, Michael O'Brien, John Owre, Jennifer Swift, Drew
Wheatley, Jurgen Boerema and Tony Lange contributed to this list.
PLEASE E-MAIL Bob Cusack WITH UPDATES.