Senate vote unlikely this week on Rep. Ryan's House budget resolution

A Senate vote on the House budget resolution authored by Rep. Paul RyanPaul RyanNearly 600 VA dental patients may have been exposed to HIV, hepatitis Republicans raise red flags about ObamaCare repeal strategy Overnight Healthcare: GOP in talks about helping insurers after ObamaCare repeal MORE (R-Wis.) “probably” won’t happen this week, a Democratic aide told The Hill on Monday.

Senate Majority Leader Harry ReidHarry ReidTrump gets chance to remake the courts Democrats local party problem Trump flirts with Dems for Cabinet MORE (D-Nev.) has vowed to force a vote on the Ryan budget in part because Democrats see a political advantage in getting Senate Republicans to go on the record supporting a resolution that calls for turning Medicare into a type of voucher system.

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Democrats hammered House Republicans on the vote during the two-week recess that just ended.

Reid said on the Senate floor Monday that the Senate will first deal with a small-business bill and then with subsidies for oil companies before turning to the Ryan budget.

Cutting Medicare spending to balance the federal budget is highly unpopular with voters, according to a new poll conducted for The Hill. Fifty-three percent of likely voters oppose any cuts, and 14 percent were unsure.

Decisions on the timing of the budget votes were to be made at a leadership meeting Monday, one aide said.

The Senate has been focused on a small-business bill that is being held up by Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-Maine). She is demanding a vote on an amendment designed to change the way regulations affecting small businesses are issued.

The Ryan budget vote will be difficult for centrist Republicans. Already, Sen. Susan CollinsSusan CollinsSenators crafting bill to limit deportations under Trump Cornyn: ‘Virtual certainty’ Sessions and Price will be confirmed Trump's wrong to pick Bannon or Sessions for anything MORE (R-Maine) has said she does not support the plan, which also cuts Medicaid and welfare.

Last week, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnellMitch McConnellDriverless car industry embraces Trump’s Transportation pick Trump flirts with Dems for Cabinet Lawmakers eye early exit from Washington MORE (R-Ky.) vowed to force a potentially embarrassing vote on President Obama’s 2012 budget proposal, which the president has cast aside in favor of deeper deficit cuts.

A Republican aide said that vote would come when Democrats bring some budget resolution to the floor.

In a deal earlier this year, Reid agreed to allow a more open amendment process on the Senate floor in exchange for a reduction in holds and filibusters from the minority. 

That deal is being threatened by Snowe’s fight with Reid, an aide said.

An ugly Ryan budget vote could also complicate bipartisan talks by the Gang of Six, which is striving to release a deficit-reduction proposal this month.

Concord Coalition Executive Director Bob Bixby said that if Republicans take the Ryan budget vote seriously, it could damage the Gang of Six talks.

The Ryan plan eschews tax increases and largely exempts the military from spending cuts, and the vote could push Republicans into embracing that approach.

In this partisan atmosphere, Republican “gang” members Sens. Tom CoburnTom CoburnWill Trump back women’s museum? Don't roll back ban on earmarks Ryan calls out GOP in anti-poverty fight MORE (R-Okla.), Mike CrapoMike CrapoEx-Im faces new problems with Trump GOP debates going big on tax reform Top Banking Dem pushes back on Trump Dodd-Frank 'dismantle' MORE (R-Idaho) and Saxby ChamblissSaxby ChamblissWyden hammers CIA chief over Senate spying Cruz is a liability Inside Paul Ryan’s brain trust MORE (R-Ga.) would be under pressure to vote for the Ryan plan and to stop negotiating, he said.

Bixby said, however, that he thinks the GOP will treat the Ryan vote as a “political stunt” and simply vote against it on procedural grounds. The GOP would argue that it is not a Senate-crafted budget resolution and Reid should not have the power to put a House budget on the floor, he said.

Steve Bell of the Bipartisan Policy Center said the Reid move “creates more scar tissue” in the Senate and will make raising the debt ceiling and coming to a bipartisan agreement more difficult. He said he can see Republicans voting against the Ryan budget on procedural grounds to avoid the tough vote, however.