10 Senate seats that could flip in 2018

Democrats reeling from a devastating election face a daunting task: the 2018 Senate map.

It favors Republicans in a big way. The GOP will be defending just eight seats, while Democrats must fight for 23 — plus another two held by independents who caucus with Democrats.

What’s worse is the fact that many of the seats they must defend are in states won by Republican Donald TrumpDonald TrumpMcDonald's deletes anti-Trump tweet, says account was hacked Maddow: Trump tax return leak like 'a drop of water' in the desert Secret Service agents investigated for taking selfies with Trump's sleeping grandson: report MORE.

Midterm elections for sitting presidents are historically challenging. Democrats in the Senate are hoping to find some political momentum for 2018 given the difficult playing ground.  

Here are 10 Senate seats that could flip, in alphabetical order:

 

Bill NelsonBill NelsonTrump budget proposes 13 percent cut to Transportation Dept Trump's Labor nominee picks up Democratic vote Infrastructure grants could be on chopping block in Trump budget MORE  (D-Fla.)

Democrats came into 2016 bullish about the Sunshine State.

But Republican incumbent Marco RubioMarco RubioSenate marks six years of Syrian civil war, asks for WH plan to end conflict 'Jail time!': Trump ponders outcry if Snoop Dogg shot clown dressed as Obama The Hill's 12:30 Report MORE’s decision to run for reelection cleared the muddled field and, ultimately, a surge in rural Republican voters outpaced Democrats’ gains in cities and with Hispanics. When the dust settled, Trump won by 1 percentage point, while Rubio held on to his seat by 8 points. 

Nelson, a three-term senator, is a well-known commodity in Florida, having held public office there since 1972. And he starts with a net 14-point approval rating, according to an October poll from Public Policy Polling. 

Possible challengers could include term-limited Gov. Rick Scott (R), a Trump ally, or any of the politicians who eyed the seat in 2016, including outgoing GOP Reps. David Jolly or Ron DeSantis.

Millionaire Carlos Beruff and Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera, both 2016 candidates, could also jump in. But the two are Scott allies, so it’s unlikely either would challenge the governor should he decide to run.

 

Joe DonnellyJoe DonnellyFormer GOP senator lobbying for Gorsuch's nomination This week: GOP works to corral votes on healthcare plan Mellman: What Dems should do now MORE (D-Ind.)

No state’s Senate race changed more in 2016 than Indiana’s. Republicans started the cycle looking likely to keep control of outgoing Sen. Dan CoatsDan CoatsOvernight Cybersecurity: DOJ charges Russians over Yahoo hack | Intel chairman says he has no evidence of Trump wiretapping Senate confirms Coats as national intel chief Senate advances Coats as national intel chief MORE’s seat with Democratic Rep. Barron Hill in the race. Then it seemed destined to go Democratic once Hill dropped out and former Sen. Evan Bayh jumped in. 

But a flurry of damaging stories and revelations stunted Bayh’s comeback, giving Rep. Todd YoungTodd YoungGOP lawmakers renew push for ISIS war authorization A guide to the committees: Senate Overnight Cybersecurity: Senate takes a hard line on Russia | Dems want hearings on Trump's cyber issues MORE a 10-point win behind Trump’s 19-point victory. 

Donnelly seemed to have an uphill battle against Sen. Richard Lugar (R) in 2012, until the incumbent was toppled by former Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock.

Look for a much tighter race now, with potential GOP candidates such as Reps. Luke Messer, Susan BrooksSusan BrooksWomen2Women Agenda proving the political system is not broken A guide to the committees: House GOP loses top Senate contenders MORE or Marlin Stutzman, who ran in the primary this past spring, in the mix.

 

Claire McCaskillClaire McCaskillGOP rep scolds Gillibrand for tearing into Marine general over nude-photo scandal Senator asks DHS for plans to treat election infrastructure as critical Former GOP senator lobbying for Gorsuch's nomination MORE (D-Mo.)

Democrats are fresh off of a tight loss challenging Republican Sen. Roy BluntRoy BluntTop Dems prep for future while out of the spotlight Overnight Healthcare: Pressure mounts for changes to GOP ObamaCare bill Pressure mounts for changes to ObamaCare bill MORE’s reelection and now have to pivot to defending one of their own. Democrat Jason Kander fell to Blunt by 3 points, while Trump won the state by 19 points. 

McCaskill has won tough races before — she defeated incumbent Republican Sen. Jim Talent for her seat in 2008 and dispatched Rep. Todd Akin in 2012, a race that had been considered close until Akin’s infamous comment about “legitimate rape.”

Republicans will likely eye the red-state seat as a major pickup opportunity, potentially by one of the state’s six GOP lawmakers.

 

Jon TesterJon TesterHealthcare bill faces steep climb in Senate Liberals threaten to primary over Gorsuch Dem senator introduces bill to 'drain the swamp' MORE (D-Mont.)

Tester steered the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 2016, so he’s led the party through its share of tough races. And winning as a Democrat in Montana is no easy feat.

Trump won the presidential vote by 21 points in Montana, but Gov. Steve Bullock (D) tapped into the state’s bipartisan leanings with his own 4-point win. 

GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke, the state’s only congressman, is seen as best positioned for a potential Tester challenge.

 

Dean HellerDean HellerGOP senator slams Trump's Yucca Mountain proposal Vulnerable GOP senator criticizes healthcare plan GOP ObamaCare bill energizes town hall groups MORE (R-Nev.)

Nevada was one of the shining lights for Democrats up and down the ticket in 2016 — Clinton held the state by 2 points, the same margin that former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto defeated Republican Rep. Joe Heck by to win the open Senate seat. 

That’ll give Democrats confidence coming into one of their few strong pickup opportunities of 2018. 

Look for the scramble to start right back up, with names like Rep. Dina Titus and retiring Sen. Harry ReidHarry ReidRepublicans move to curb Dem powers in the states Perez creates advisory team for DNC transition Reid told Warren to run for president in 2020: report MORE’s son Rory leading the first round of speculation. 

 

Heidi HeitkampHeidi HeitkampSenate Finance takes step on Trump's trade nominee Mellman: What Dems should do now Senate Majority PAC names Schumer ally as new leader MORE (D-N.D.)

North Dakota is another ruby-red state coming off a Republican blowout in 2016. Trump won by 36 points, Sen. John HoevenJohn HoevenSenate panel considers how to fund Trump’s T infrastructure package A guide to the committees: Senate GOP senators unveil bill to give Congress control of consumer bureau budget MORE won reelection by 62 points, and Republican Gov.-elect Doug Burgum won by 58 points. 

Rep. Kevin Cramer (R), the state’s only congressman, could entertain a bid against one of the Senate’s 21 women. 

 

Sherrod BrownSherrod BrownFormer Gov. O'Malley tests 2020 waters with poll Senate Finance takes step on Trump's trade nominee Trump trade nominee says he supports 'America first' policy MORE (D-Ohio)

Brown’s populist streak has won him favor in Ohio for more than two decades, including two terms in the Senate, helping him win reelection in 2012 by 6 points. 

But Ohio took a sharp turn in the GOP’s direction in 2016, with Trump winning by 8 points, a larger margin than each of the past five presidential elections there. And Sen. Rob PortmanRob PortmanTrump trade nominee says he supports 'America first' policy Overnight Finance: Budget ref caught in ObamaCare crossfire | Treasury chief urges Congress to raise debt limit | McConnell says tax reform unlikely by August Pence, Price huddle with Senate GOP MORE won by 21 points over his Democratic challenger, former Gov. Ted Strickland.

A term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R) could look to jump back to Congress, or state Treasurer Josh Mandel could look for a rematch against Brown, depending on who decides to run to replace Kasich. 

 

Bob CaseyBob CaseyDems launch attacks ahead of Supreme Court showdown Dem senator: Trump victory in blue states a challenge for 2018 contenders Senators want more security funding for Jewish centers MORE (D-Pa.) 

The Casey name has been in Pennsylvania politics for about a half-century, beginning with Casey’s father, who started in the state Senate in 1963 before stints as the auditor general and governor.

Casey has won big even in the tight state — he defeated incumbent GOP Sen. Rick Santorum by 18 points in 2006 and won reelection by 9 points in 2012. 

This year, GOP Sen. Pat Toomey won reelection by 2 points, bucking all the polls, and the electorate only stands to become more favorable for Republicans in an off year. 

Potential candidates could include two early Trump backers in Congress, Reps. Lou BarlettaLou BarlettaWork begins on T infrastructure plan Let D.C. set its immigration enforcement policy A guide to the committees: House MORE and Tom Marino, or others such as Rep. Pat Meehan. State Senate Majority Leader Jake Corman is another who could consider a bid, but many are in a holding pattern until Gov. Tom Wolf (D) decides whether he’ll seek reelection. 

 

Joe ManchinJoe ManchinFormer Hill staffer launches talk show This week: GOP works to corral votes on healthcare plan Overnight Finance: Budget ref caught in ObamaCare crossfire | Treasury chief urges Congress to raise debt limit | McConnell says tax reform unlikely by August MORE (D-W.Va.)

Manchin’s decision to run for reelection boosted the hopes of Democrats looking to hold the deep-red state.

Trump won the state by 42 points, but the Mountain State bucked the idea of voting straight ticket, electing Democratic coal executive Jim Justice to the governor’s mansion with a 7-point margin.

Republican state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey could consider a bid, as could GOP Reps. David McKinleyDavid McKinleyA guide to the committees: House Overnight Regulation: Republicans put Obama coal rule on chopping block House to repeal Obama coal rule Wednesday MORE, Alex Mooney or Evan Jenkins. 

 

Tammy BaldwinTammy BaldwinSenate advances Coats as national intel chief GOP targets Baldwin over Wisconsin VA scandal Dems rip DeVos over 'shameful' transgender change MORE (D-Wis.)

The Wisconsin Republican infrastructure in the state helped Gov. Scott Walker win three elections in six years, including during the 2012 election that saw wins by both Baldwin and President Obama. 

Trump’s 1-point victory there, as well as Johnson’s comeback 3-point victory, gives Republicans hope to build on those margins with a midterm electorate. 

Walker is likely to run for reelection, but his lieutenant governor, Rebecca Kleefisch, could decide to go national. Rep. Sean DuffySean DuffyGOP targets Baldwin over Wisconsin VA scandal Prevention: The key to healthcare’s fiscal sustainability GOP lawmakers lead way in holding town halls MORE is another name mentioned as a potential Senate contender.