Mood turns somber for Democrats in 2014 contest for Senate control

President Obama talked earlier this year of a Democratic takeover of the House, but instead his party is now in danger of losing the Senate.

The latest blow to their hopes of keeping the upper chamber came from former Montana Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D),who opted out of a race to replace retiring Sen. Max BaucusMax BaucusChina moves to lift ban on US beef Overnight Healthcare: Zika fight stalls government funding talks | Census finds big drop in uninsured | Mental health bill faces wait Glover Park Group now lobbying for Lyft MORE (D-Mont.)

ADVERTISEMENT
Schweitzer’s decision deflated the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s annual retreat on Martha’s Vineyard, where many senators heard the news.

“People were very upset,” said a Democratic donor who was there.

That party seems likely to lose seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia, where it cannot find find strong candidates.

The GOP will probably need to capture six Democratic seats in 2014 to grab the majority, as Newark mayor Cory Booker is well positioned to win the seat held by interim Sen. Jeff Chiesa (R-N.J.) in a special election. Democrats hold a 54 to 46 advantage, counting two independents who caucus with them.

But they must also defend four vulnerable incumbents and the seat soon to be vacated by Sen. Tom HarkinTom HarkinGrassley challenger no stranger to defying odds Clinton ally stands between Sanders and chairmanship dream Do candidates care about our health or just how much it costs? MORE (D) in Iowa, a swing state.

Sens. Mark PryorMark PryorCotton pitches anti-Democrat message to SC delegation Ex-Sen. Kay Hagan joins lobby firm Top Democrats are no advocates for DC statehood MORE and Mark BegichMark BegichRyan's victory trumps justice reform opponents There is great responsibility being in the minority Senate GOP deeply concerned over Trump effect MORE, Democrats from Arkansas and Alaska, where Obama lost badly in 2012, are in greatest danger. Sens. Mary LandrieuMary LandrieuLouisiana needs Caroline Fayard as its new senator La. Senate contender books seven-figure ad buy Crowded field muddies polling in Louisiana Senate race MORE (D-La.), a three-term survivor perpetually on the GOP target list, and Kay HaganKay HaganPhoto finish predicted for Trump, Clinton in North Carolina Are Senate Republicans facing an election wipeout? Clinton's lead in NC elevates Senate race MORE (D-N.C.), who had a solid lead in a recent Public Policy Polling survey, will also have competitive races.

Pryor is seen as the most vulnerable, though Begich is a close second.

The Arkansan has taken hits from the right and the left this year as the anti-tax group Club For Growth and Mayors Against Illegal Guns, have aired attack ads against him. A late-June poll commissioned by the Senate Conservatives Fund showed him in a dead heat with freshman Rep. Tom CottonTom CottonFears mount that Obama will change course on Israel in final months GOP pressures Kerry on Russia's use of Iranian airbase GOP to Obama: Sanction Chinese entities to get to North Korea MORE (R-Ark.).

Senate Republicans, left dispirited after a net loss of two seats in 2012, now feel a gust of optimism.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Jerry MoranJerry MoranSenate panel advances ticket bots crackdown Overnight Tech: GOP says internet fight isn't over | EU chief defends Apple tax ruling | Feds roll out self-driving car guidelines | Netflix's China worries GOP pressures Kerry on Russia's use of Iranian airbase MORE (R-Kan.) says his colleagues are becoming more energetic as they see the rising possibility of a GOP Senate majority in 2015.

“That lends itself to people working harder, that lends itself to people contributing more,” Moran said.

Republicans have history on their side. The president’s party has lost Senate seats in almost every midterm election of his second term going back to 1938. The exception is 1998, when neither party picked up a seat in the middle of Bill ClintonBill ClintonTrump camp talking points: Mention Monica Lewinsky The Trail 2016: Miss Universe crashes campaign Obama to attend Shimon Peres funeral in Israel MORE’s second term.

Democrats will have to defend 21 seats while Republicans must worry about only 13. The most vulnerable Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnellMitch McConnellMichigan Dems highlight Flint with unanimous opposition to CR Congress departs for recess until after Election Day How Congress averted shutdown MORE (Ky.). He has weak approval numbers but has amassed nearly $10 million with which to fund his campaign. He also has experience on his side; his opponent, Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Grimes, is only 34 years old.

Midterm turnout is expected to be lower, older and whiter than in last year’s presidential election, which should favor Republicans.

Jennifer Duffy, a Senate analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Democrats are slightly favored to hold their majority because Republicans could be hurt again by choosing candidates who perform poorly in general elections.

“I would give Democrats a very slight edge today. The primary process hasn’t played out,” she said.

Republicans know recruiting is important.

“The difference between 2010 and 2012 is, I think, the quality of the candidates,” said Sen. John CornynJohn CornynSenate Dems shun GOP vulnerables Congress steamrolls Obama's veto 78 lawmakers vote to sustain Obama veto MORE (Texas), who chaired the NRSC in the last two election cycles. “The lesson learned here is we need to try to recruit good candidates and if you don’t have good candidates, you’re not likely to win.”

Republicans picked up six seats in 2010.

Conservative groups such as the Club for Growth and Senate Conservatives Fund helped Tea-Party favored candidates in primaries in the past two election cycles but the playing field will be more even next year. American Crossroads, a Republican super PAC linked to Karl Rove, will back candidates it sees as having a better chance to win in general elections.

Democrats scored a victory in Iowa earlier this year by recruiting their top prospect, Rep. Bruce BraleyBruce BraleyCriminal sentencing bill tests McConnell-Grassley relationship Trump's VP list shrinks Vernon wins Iowa House Dem primary MORE (D), who has proven his ability to win tight races in Iowa’s competitive 1st district.

Cary Covington, a professor of political science at the University of Iowa, said, “there’s a sense this is Braley’s race to lose”.

“What Braley has going for him is Iowa voters like split party control” of the Senate seats, he said.

A slew of Republicans have declared their candidacies, including Sen. Chuck GrassleyChuck GrassleySenate passes bill to preserve sexual assault kits Grassley accuses Reid of 'pure unfiltered partisanship' Overnight Healthcare: Zika funding nears finish line | House expected to approve spending bill tonight | New pledge to push medical cures bill MORE’s (R-Iowa) former chief of staff, but none of them are well known.

The most prominent are former U.S. attorney and Iowa football player Matt Whitaker, David Young, the former Grassley staffer, radio talk show host Sam Clovis, and Joni Ernst, a military veteran and state senator.

The primaries will do much to decide which party controls of the Senate. There are 15 months to go until Election Day and predictions and polls will fluctuate.

“At this time in my cycle, I was done, I was history. Everyone in this town had written me off,” said Sen. Claire McCaskillClaire McCaskillSenate Dems shun GOP vulnerables The Trail 2016: Miss Universe crashes campaign McCaskill goes after Trump's weight MORE (D-Mo.), who was expected to lose last year until former Rep. Todd Akin's (R-Mo.) campaign against her imploded when he made awkward comments about rape and pregnancy.