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Counting Tuesday night, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have debated 723 times. That math might be off a bit, but there is nothing fuzzy about this week’s absolutely critical importance to the once-inevitable Clinton, who is quite possibly just six days away from being political roadkill.
Simply to stay alive, Clinton should need not only to have a spectacular campaign week, but to come up with huge victories in delegate-rich Texas and Ohio next Tuesday.
Clinton cannot split the spoils, either. She cannot merely make a good showing; she must win decisively. She must stun the political establishment (and non-establishment, for that matter) — that same crowd that doesn’t quite have the audacity or stomach to tell her, “It’s over.”
Notwithstanding that sort of prime-time-reality-show intervention, Clinton has six days to convince those still listening that she is not yesterday’s news, and, indeed, has yet another chapter in her memoir.
If the March 4 results don’t go her way but also turn out to be nondecisive or muddled, I am sure Team Clinton’s delegate-count gurus will conjure up a respectable, almost believable, roadmap to the nomination — especially given the jump-ball superdelegates, and all the yet-to-be-resolved uncertainties over the Florida and Michigan delegations.
That would be the “on-paper” route to the nomination.
But this race is about much more than paper and delegate-count math. It is about momentum. And Barack Obama has it all.
Momentum or not, and notwithstanding all his staggering success, the first-term Illinois senator still has some serious close-the-deal convincing to do.
If positions were reversed and Obama was the one who had lost 11 contests in a row and trailed by a million popular votes, political establishment pressure for him to throw in the towel would be merciless.
On second thought, maybe there wouldn’t need to be any pressure; Obama would have seen the writing on the wall, done the right thing, stepped aside, and lived to fight another day. He has that luxury, but Clinton may not.
This explains the erratic, herky-jerky, late-in-the-game audible plays that Team Clinton seems to be making up as they go. One day she is “honored … honored” (said it twice) to be on the same stage as Obama, the next day it’s “Shame on you, Barack Obama!” — gutter politics. Then there’s the matter of that shocking photograph of Obama wearing a turban and traditional African garb during a trip to Kenya. On and on — let’s call this the “kitchen sink” strategy.
To use another sports metaphor (and for my money you can never have enough), Clinton is the lumbering, never-been-knocked-down, heavyweight champion who, despite a few good early rounds, has been stung badly in every round since.
As in prizefights and politics, the process is not fair. Despite what is evident to everyone in the stands, the challenger has to work a little harder, dig a little deeper, and make it overwhelmingly decisive; otherwise not everyone will see that there is a new kid in town. It’s American-style fighting; crowns are not bequeathed — they are taken.
It cannot even be close. At the end of the fight, there can be no doubt who rules. Those are the rules. The ever-present, inherent challenge of being the challenger.
Obama has his opportunity on March 4, which, despite big-venue bookings later in Pennsylvania and elsewhere, could turn out to be the final round. Whether by a canvas-sprawling knockdown, TKO, or split decision, next week promises to be the all-clarifying tipping point.
If Clinton fails to have a huge day on Tuesday, it’s difficult to see if there is “another day” for her. Comedian Dennis Miller recently suggested that the only way she could keep the flames of hope flickering at this point is to cut a deal with Obama.
Immediately step aside, take the VP slot, and win or lose, she will have stored up all those “team-player” chits in the First National Democratic Bank of Goodwill. Seems like it might be too bitter a pill for Hillary to swallow. I expect a new batch of Obama photos real soon.
You can reach Jim Mills at
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