For Texas Republicans, the courts have giveth and now taketh away. Several weeks ago, the Supreme Court upheld most of a Republican redistricting plan that had netted them a gain of six House seats in 2004. This week, however, federal courts have made the districts that elected Henry Bonilla and Tom DeLay much more competitive.

 Texas’s mid decade redistricting map passed Supreme Court muster, except for Henry Bonilla’s 23rd District.   Republicans had shored up Bonilla by making his district less Hispanic and more Republican, but still maintaining just over 50 percent Hispanic population. The Court, however, found fault with the district because it did not encompass a majority of citizen voting age Hispanics and that there was not one unified Hispanic community, but two distinct groups, one in Laredo, and the other hundreds of miles away around San Antonio.

 To remedy this defect, a federal court panel last week removed the Laredo Hispanics from the district and added a larger number of San Antonio Hispanics, making the district more Latino and less Republican.

 If this were an open seat, Republicans would be in trouble. The Texas Legislative Council reports a slight edge for Democrats in the results of recent statewide elections. Nonetheless, while Bonilla did not perform well among Hispanics when running against Henry Cuellar in 2004, he is an incumbent Hispanic Republican, and he grew up in the San Antonio area neighborhoods added to the district.

 Bottom line. Bonilla should be able to weather this storm, but given the possibility of a big Democratic year, his margin of error has been cut close.

 In another case, federal courts threw a monkey wrench in DeLay’s carefully crafted exit strategy. DeLay, who withdrew after winning the Republican primary, believed that Republicans could replace him on the ballot if he were ineligible to run. Accordingly, he switched his residency to Virginia, offering as proof a new driver’s license and voter card.

 But several federal courts, including a number of Republican appointed judges, ruled that he must remain on the ballot. Texas law is strict about replacing candidates. Only ineligible candidates can be removed. And the Constitution has very specific ineligibility requirements, in particular residency in the state on election day. Since no one can guarantee where DeLay will reside on election day, he is not ineligible to run, and must stay on the ballot.

 Looking at DeLay’s district in isolation, despite losing some Republican precincts in the 2004 redistricting, it is still heavily Republican, having voted 64 percent for Bush in 2004. It is, however, the particular candidates that spell trouble for Republicans.

 Democrat Nick Lampson is a former congressman, a moderate, and a well above average campaigner.

 Republicans could mount a write in campaign for a new candidate, but this is an uphill battle, because time is so short and because some will be confused with DeLay’s name on the ballot. Alternatively, DeLay has hinted that he might actually run for his old seat, but it will be tough for him to win, and Democrats across the country will rejoice at his candidacy and likely run ads touting the indicted DeLay as the posterboy for Republican misrule.

 Bottom line: Lampson is now the favorite.

 Finally, both of these races may be affected by Census numbers released last week that document the significant rise of Hispanics in Texas. From 2000 to 2005, Hispanics increased by 19.2 percent and non Hispanic whites by only 2.2 percent, making Hispanic electoral strength greater than indicated by the 2000 numbers used to draw both of these districts.

Fortier is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.