Rep. Tom DeLay’s response to his indictment can best be summed up by the adage “the best defense is a good offense.” But his troubles are deeper than the Texas indictment.

Short of some miracle, he will not be able to resurrect his political career, although his dire predicament has certainly not dissuaded him from fighting for his political survival.

DeLay (R-Texas) knows that if he has any chance of survival he must get back into the majority-leader position quickly. The aura of power around a leader dissipates quickly when the office is vacated, and there are already rivals angling for his job.

Last year, anticipating an indictment, Republicans abolished a party rule that required indicted leaders to step aside from their posts. Public uproar, however, led to the restoration of the old rule.

After he was indicted and forced to step down, DeLay attacked the motives of prosecutor Ronnie Earle and even foiled his critics by smiling during his booking photo. His legal team got a judge dismissed from the case because he was too closely associated with Democratic groups. And his lawyers have asked the court to dismiss the charges as early as next week, which would lead to his immediate return as majority leader.

The efforts of late to marshal support for DeLay have been breathtaking. First, there was the well-publicized fundraiser at which Washington’s elite lobbyists signaled their fealty to DeLay. Similarly, a rally this week in his home district included an appearance by Vice President Cheney.

All of these tactics are attempts to send the message: “Keep the seat warm; I’ll be back.” But at the end of the day, these tactics are unlikely to succeed.

If there is no immediate dismissal of the charges, there will almost certainly be an election early next year for majority leader. Rep. Roy Blunt (R-Mo.), who is acting majority leader, will look to ensconce himself in that position, and Rep. John Boehner (R-Ohio) has been lining up support to challenge Blunt. There will also be a spirited fight for Blunt’s job of majority whip, with Reps. Zach Wamp (R-Tenn.), Eric Cantor (R-Va.), Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.), Mike Pence (R-Ind.) and others eyeing that.

Even if Texas Judge Pat Priest throws DeLay a lifeline by dismissing the charges, there may still be a leadership election. All of these Republicans are not lining up support for nothing; they are ready to run. And both conservatives and moderates have shown that they are not afraid of bucking their leaders. Speaker Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) has said that he would hold a new election if 50 members requested it, and it is not hard to imagine a right-left coalition of 50.

Even if DeLay survives all of this, the Abramoff scandal looms large. The biggest boast of Jack Abramoff in his sleazy pitches to Indian tribes, foreign dictators and obscure U.S. territories was that he was close to Tom DeLay. With multiple investigations ongoing in the Justice Department and the Senate, it is hard to imagine that DeLay will not be in the news in unflattering ways for months or years to come.

Finally, if DeLay is still standing in November 2006, when Republicans will almost certainly lose seats in the midterm elections, he will be the easiest target of the caucus’s wrath.

DeLay’s political future depends on the equivalent of a royal flush. He must beat the Texas indictment quickly and return to his position of majority leader, fight off rivals who want his post, avoid taint from the growing Abramoff scandals and avoid a setback in the 2006 midterm elections. Don’t bet on it.

Fortier is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.