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By John Fortier
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Posted: 04/24/07 07:02 PM [ET] |
Scandal will once again shape congressional elections. While Iraq was the dominant issue in 2006, scandal contributed to the Democratic message of “time for a change in leadership.” That change occurred, but scandal continues to hit individual members and will have an effect on several individual races.
Aside from its general effects, scandal had a direct role in four or five Republican House losses: Bob Ney (Ohio), Mark Foley (Fla.), Tom DeLay (Texas), Curt Weldon (Pa.) and to some extent Richard Pombo (Calif.). Especially in the cases of Ney, Foley and DeLay, Republicans would likely have held these seats had these members left the House earlier, and had Republicans nominated replacement candidates who displayed independence from their tainted predecessors.
Consider the tale of three of the most scandal-plagued members: John Doolittle (R-Calif.), William Jefferson (D-La.) and Rick Renzi (R-Ariz.). Other members may be under a cloud, but what these three have in common is that the FBI has raided their own or their associates’ homes or offices, and they have vacated coveted committee slots in the wake of their troubles.
Of these three, Jefferson’s seat is the least vulnerable and Renzi’s the most.
Jefferson’s problems date back to the 109th Congress, when the FBI found $90,000 in cash in his freezer. His loss of a seat on the Ways and Means Committee was a blow to him, and some believed that Democratic primary voters would oust him.
They were wrong. Jefferson cruised to victory, winning his primary runoff with 57 percent of the vote against a very credible opponent. The district is so Democratic (it gave John Kerry 75 percent of the vote in 2004) that Republicans have no shot, and given the 2006 primary results, Jefferson will not likely be beaten by another Democrat. Ultimately, scandal may end his career, but probably not at the ballot box. Look for Jefferson to leave only if his legal troubles become much more serious.
Doolittle has troubles related to the Abramoff scandal and his wife’s consulting business. The scandal charges clearly hurt Doolittle’s reelection effort in 2006, in which he won with only 49 percent of the vote. Doolittle had previously cleared 60 percent in every election since his first in 1992. The recent FBI raid on his wife’s home office has ramped up the scandal, and could leave him vulnerable. His seat is pretty solidly Republican with Bush winning the district with 61 percent of the vote. If Doolittle’s troubles mount, Republicans will see parallels to Bob Ney’s seat (Bush won 57 percent in 2004) and Tom DeLay’s seat (Bush received 64 percent in 2004). Republicans should hold this seat if Doolittle were to vacate it early. But if he hangs on and his troubles worsen, a late resignation or a hobbled candidacy could give Democrats a chance.
Rick Renzi’s recent land-deal controversy could easily cost Republicans a seat. Renzi’s district was created in the 2002 redistricting to be a competitive seat that either party could win. Renzi managed to win more easily than anticipated in 2002, won a big reelection in 2004, and did reasonably well in the bad atmosphere for Republicans in 2006, when he won by eight percentage points. The district, however, is competitive (Bush won with only 54 percent of the vote). Scandal could hurt Republicans here most, with either a wounded incumbent or an open seat creating an opportunity for Democrats.
We have heard a lot about cutting and running in the context of Iraq. But if scandal pressures mount for Doolittle and Renzi, Republicans may consider cutting and running from these members early in order to improve their chances of holding their seats.
Fortier is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. |
