While the political currents on the mainland are moving against Republicans, those around Hawaii swirl against an ensconced Democratic old guard.  Dan Akaka won his primary, but the primary challenge itself and the growing strength of Republicans signal a change ahead in Hawaii politics.

The national trend toward Democrats in the 2006 midterm is strong, but there are pockets where state factors may produce a significant countertrend.  New Jersey is one such example, where the long standing corruption of the Democratic party machine is helping Tom Kean, Jr. make a strong run for Senate.  In Michigan, Jennifer Granholm, like almost all Midwest governors, is unpopular because of worries about the economic future of the region.  In Washington State, Republicans have a case to make against Democrats dating back to the election controversy of 2004.

Hawaii, however, is perhaps the most interesting case of state politics running counter to the national trend.  The dominant Hawaiian Democratic Party is best symbolized by Dan Inouye, who has represented Hawaii in Congress since it became a state in 1959, first in the House, and since 1962 in the Senate.  The party was built by World War II veterans like Inouye, and has strong support of Native Hawaiians and descendants of Asian immigrants.

Inouye’s strength, honesty, and stature compare favorably to any of his Senate colleagues.  His party, however, has hit some rocky times.  Democrats controlled the governorship from 1962-2002, but Republican Linda Lingle brought that reign to an end with a successful campaign for governor that railed against the corruption of the entrenched regime.  Today, she is one of the most popular governors in America.

For those who wonder if the Lingle governorship is a flash in the pan, the surprise primary challenge of Ed Case (D-Hawaii) to Dan Akaka illustrates the strength of sentiment against the entrenched Democratic Party both from within the party and without.  Case ran as a centrist and a reformer, arguing that the party machine had allowed Akaka to stay in office and to have a voting record more liberal than most Hawaiians.  And Case clearly had an uphill battle.  No sitting Hawaii senator had ever lost an election in a primary or a general election.

The empire, however, did strike back.  While Case gave Akaka the race of his life, through a massive effort, Akaka prevailed.

But in losing, Case took a very respectable 45 percent of the vote and received over 100,000 votes, far more than any losing primary candidate in the past.  It is hard to imagine that the forces that propelled the Case candidacy will disappear, and Case himself may run again.

Similarly troubling for the traditional Democratic machine is strength on the Republican side.  Linda Lingle will likely win re-election easily.  Republicans also had a spirited primary campaign for Case’s House seat, although they probably did not elect the strongest candidate, nor did they get the strongest challenger to Akaka.  Nonetheless, they showed that they have several promising candidates for the future.

And there are signs that Hawaii is not as reliably Democratic as it seems.  Bush lost Hawaii to John Kerry by less than nine points, compared to his loss to Al Gore by twice that margin.  Dick Cheney even made a brief campaign stop in Hawaii after a poll showed the race to be close.  The national security and energy independence issues also play well here with a large number of veterans, memories of Pearl Harbor, and the islands’ distance from the mainland.

Akaka is a sure bet to return to the Senate, but his party’s future and the future of the Hawaii delegation are more up for grabs.

Fortier is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.