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By John Fortier
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Posted: 04/03/07 07:44 PM [ET] |
The halls of Congress are atwitter about the first-quarter fundraising totals, which produced very different results for three senators. John McCain (R-Ariz.) was dealt another blow; Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) remains the frontrunner; and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has become the clear Clinton alternative.
We have more than nine months of campaigning before the first vote is cast. The major activity in this period is fundraising, or, as political scientists call it, “the money primary.” Money is, of course, the mother’s milk of campaigns. It is necessary to pay for expensive consultants, on-the-ground staff and television advertising. But at this stage of the campaign, it is mostly a signal of the relative strength of the candidates. By showing the world that thousands of people are willing to donate large sums of money to your campaign, you make yourself a contender. Howard Dean had a committed nucleus of followers at this time in 2003, but it was only when his remarkable fundraising totals (much of the money raised over the Internet) were released that he received broader support among Democrats.
The fundraising totals have shaken up the presidential race on both sides. The biggest loser is John McCain. Six months ago, most would have considered him the frontrunner. He is still the candidate who has locked up the most establishment support and has the best campaign organization, but he has fallen far behind Rudy Giuliani in the polls, and now all of his organization has netted him third place in fundraising behind Mitt Romney and Giuliani. McCain will argue, rightly, that he did not begin raising in earnest until February, but with such a strong organization, why didn’t he?
Romney will get a significant boost from his impressive first-place finish. He has done many things right, but has never seen his poll numbers creep out of single digits. The average American has never heard of him. His fundraising totals will force people to give him a look, and he will no doubt rise in the polls. But Romney starts so far behind, and his fundraising win will share the news with the entry of ex-Sen. Fred Thompson (R-Tenn.), so that he will not vault into first place, but only become a more viable second or third.
Giuliani is not hurt by his fundraising. He raised a very significant total, seemingly effortlessly, and his organization and dedication to fundraising have only just started.
On the Democratic side, it is hard not to be impressed with Hillary Clinton’s $26 million. She is the frontrunner in every aspect of the campaign. But expectations had been raised so significantly that many anticipated her to blow away the field. She is helped by her fundraising, but it has not established the inevitability of her victory.
Barack Obama continues to impress. He has gone toe-to-toe with Clinton in Hollywood and Selma, improved his poll ratings, and now shown that he can raise gobs of money. He is Howard Dean Plus, equally beloved in the blogosphere and the boardroom. Democrats looking for an alternative to Clinton have a strong candidate.
For John Edwards, the news was not all bad. He raised a lot of money and clearly remains in the top tier, albeit third. If the Iowa caucus were held today, with his legion of on-the-ground supporters and labor backing, he would do well. But if he continues to lag behind in fundraising, those supporters will turn elsewhere.
For all the candidates, the second quarter provides a second chance, and for John McCain and John Edwards, perhaps a last chance to show that they can raise money with the frontrunners.
Fortier is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. |
