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Not too soon to mull 2012 |
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By John Fortier
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Posted: 05/15/07 07:14 PM [ET] |
Senators are dominating the 2008 presidential campaign, but if you are a senator who passed up this race, there is always 2012.
Remember how extraordinary it is for a senator to go to the White House. Only two sitting senators, John F. Kennedy and
Warren Harding, have ever been elected president. Since 1976, only two of the parties’ 16 nominees for president have been sitting senators (Democrat John Kerry and Republican Bob Dole).
Against this recent trend, all three top Democratic candidates — Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.), Barack Obama (Ill.) and John Edwards (N.C.) — have been senators, as well as six of the eight who are running. On the Republican side, Sens.
John McCain (Ariz.) and Sam Brownback (Kan.) are in the race, and everyone is awaiting the entry of former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.) and possibly current Sen. Chuck Hagel (Neb.). And a year ago, we thought that Sens. George Allen (R-Va.), Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), Russ Feingold (D-Wis.), and Barbara Boxer (D-Calif.) might run.
It is no surprise that senators are interested in the White House. The old adage goes that every senator wakes up, looks in the mirror, and sees a future president of the United States.
The outcome of the 2008 election will open up paths to the White House for a new group of senators.
Some will be considered as vice presidential nominees. On the Republican side, Mel Martinez (Fla.) or Kay Bailey Hutchison (Texas) would make attractive running mates. Martinez hails from the biggest competitive state and could help Republicans appeal to Hispanic voters. Kay Bailey Hutchison has run and won convincingly in the largest Republican state, and adding a woman to the ticket might be a useful counterbalance to a Hillary Clinton candidacy. On the Democratic side, Bill Nelson will always be considered because he is a moderate Democrat from all important Florida.
Bayh, Blanche Lincoln (Ark.) and Mary Landrieu (La.) would be attractive moderates in Republican states. If any of these senators gets picked as the VP nominee and loses, he or she will be a strong contender in 2012.
One other name to watch is former Majority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.), who would make an attractive running mate for any of the Democratic presidential nominees, and who would only be 64 in November of 2012.
Aside from the VP nominee path, there are several up-and-coming senators who may be ready in 2012. If Democrats are in the White House, Republicans may look to three Johns and a protégé of a John. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) will be the heir apparent to John McCain: a conservative on many issues, but a maverick who often bucks his party. Then there’s John Ensign (Nev.), young, rising in the leadership and from a swing state in an increasingly competitive Southwest region.
John Cornyn (Texas) has gained prominence on the Judiciary Committee and in the lower rungs of leadership. John Thune (S.D.) is the closest thing that Republicans have to Barack Obama, a fresh new face with a future in the Senate, or perhaps in the Oval Office.
If Republicans win the White House, it is not likely that Hillary Clinton will run again, but Obama might. A strong second-place showing to Clinton would make him the front-runner in 2012. Boxer or Feingold might run as candidates on the left wing of their party. Pryor or Bayh could run from the moderate wing of the party.
2008 is the best chance in a long time for a senator to win the White House, but behind the current crop of candidates lies another group, looking in the mirror, perhaps polishing off their 2013 inauguration speeches. Hope springs eternal.
Fortier is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. |
