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Senate GOPers’ dark ’08 outlook |
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By John Fortier
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Posted: 09/05/07 07:12 PM [ET] |
GOP prospects in the 2008 Senate races have gone from dim to dismal. With 14 months to go, it looks like they’ll be lucky to lose only two or three seats, and it could be much worse.
Start with four states where John Kerry beat George W. Bush: New Hampshire (by a 1 percent margin), Minnesota (3 percent), Oregon (4 percent) and Maine (9 percent). These states are represented by second-termers Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Gordon Smith (R-Ore.) and first-termers Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) and John Sununu (R-N.H.).
Each of the four has moderate credentials that play well in their respective states. But it was Republican moderates who bore the brunt of the losses in 2006 when the unpopular president and Iraq war played poorly. Several of these races have attracted top-tier Democratic candidates. Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley will challenge Gordon Smith, Rep. Tom Allen will go against Collins, and either Al Franken or Mike Ciresi will challenge Coleman. The big question is whether Jeanne Shaheen gets in for a rematch against Sununu.
Two open seatsWayne Allard’s (R-Colo.) retirement creates a good opportunity for Democrats, especially as they have recruited Rep. Mark Udall (D-Colo.) to run. Republicans could hold this seat, but it is pretty much a toss-up at this point. In Virginia, John Warner’s retirement creates an opportunity for Democrats, especially if Mark Warner runs. On the Republican side, Rep. Tom Davis (Va.) would be a very strong candidate. He still may face a conservative primary challenge from former Gov. Jim Gilmore, but Gilmore is weakened by his time out of office and poor presidential showing. A Davis-Warner race would be at best a toss-up. Without Warner, Davis will likely keep the seat in Republican hands.
ScandalThe early date of the scandal and the resignation of Larry Craig will help Republicans retain the seat. Sometimes, a candidate who hangs on too long with scandal surrounding him (e.g., Bob Ney or Tom DeLay) can cause the party to lose seats even in safe districts. The other potential scandal-affected candidate is Ted Stevens (R-Alaska), whose House was searched by the FBI. The outcome of the case is unclear, but a lingering scandal could put this usually safe seat in play.
Other possible retirementsNo word yet from Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) or Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) on their retirement plans. While both hail from Republican states, there are strong potential Democratic candidates in Mike Moore and Bob Kerrey, who could make these seats interesting.
Few (one?) vulnerable DemocratsMary Landrieu (D-La.) has run in competitive races in a state that has been trending Republican. Add to her troubles the diminished Democratic electorate post-Katrina and the fact that Treasurer John Kennedy has switched to the Republican Party to challenge her, and her prospects look shaky.
After Landrieu, it is hard to see other potential Republican pick-ups. Tim Johnson (D-S.D.) might have been vulnerable, but his illness has galvanized support around him and scared off top-tier Republican opponents, at least so far. Every other Democrat looks safe.
Democrats may have six real chances to pick up seats to the Republicans’ one. That imbalance points to Democratic gains of two to four seats.
Fortier is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
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