In the past week, Tom DeLay and Andy Card announced their departures, albeit under very different circumstances.

Already the questions have begun: Can Republicans ever be as united as they were under “The Hammer?” Will Josh Bolten patch up White House-congressional relations?

But these questions attribute too much to a few individuals. There are larger forces at work that make the Republican unity of the Bush first term unlikely to return.

Leaving aside Tom DeLay’s many legal worries, he did transform the Republican House majority. He did so, of course, by being tough, aggressive and partisan. He pushed his caucus, and he pushed K Street, although he also clearly pushed the envelope.

But DeLay did not simply rule with an iron fist. He took care of Republican members, sought their reelection and did not unnecessarily subject them to career-killing votes. When he was at the top of his game, he had the strong support of numerous Republican moderates. It is not a cliché to refer to DeLay as the most effective whip in recent memory.

At the White House, there is talk of working more closely with Congress. Andy Card is not leaving for that reason. He is tired.

Card came within months of being the longest-serving presidential chief of staff ever. Remember that Clinton and Reagan had four chiefs of staff each in their two terms, and Bush 41 had three in one term.

But the incoming chief of staff, Josh Bolten, reportedly wants to shake up the congressional-affairs staff at the White House. There have been revolts from factions within the Republican caucus over spending and drilling in Alaska’s Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. There have been larger revolts against Harriet Miers in the Senate and Bush’s immigration plan in the House, and a full-scale rebellion against the Dubai ports deal.

Rumor has it that Bolten is pushing for someone like former Rep. Bill Paxon (R-N.Y.) to head up legislative affairs. As a former member and chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee and a well-respected lobbyist, Paxon has all the skills to help the president.

But the White House is mistaken if it thinks a new head of legislative affairs alone will remedy its ills. What Bush needs is a senior Republican, independent of his team, to join the White House and be able to speak truthfully to Bush outside of his normal staffing channels. Howard Baker and Leon Panetta filled that role for Reagan and Clinton. Paxon or someone of similar stature could fill that role for Bush, but not if he is merely relegated to being the chief staff person for legislative affairs.

Both the lamentations for how good it was under DeLay and the hopes for a new head of legislative affairs miss a larger point. The right people can make a difference, but sometimes larger forces matter more.

Right now, the larger forces point toward a less united Congress that is more independent of the president. Political scientist Charles O. Jones has written that most people in Washington talk about the president as if he is a prime minister who controls his party, sets a legislative agenda, passes it and is held accountable by voters. But in reality we often have divided government and Congress is elected separately from the president.

The coming year will not be one of Bush and congressional Republicans singing from the same page. Many members will be looking to save their own skins in the midterm elections. Skillful leaders may be able to find unifying issues such as tax cuts and national security, but they will not change the larger forces at work.

Fortier is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.