All around the Hill and K Street, Democratic staffers and lobbyists with affection for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) are being recruited to come and hear a pitch for Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.).

Obama’s appeal to inside-the-Beltway Democrats, a significant slice of Hollywood and the energetic netroots community has, in a few short months, transformed him into the chief alternative to Hillary Clinton, clearly outdistancing former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.) and all the other 2008 Democratic presidential contenders.

Count me as a former skeptic. Just four months ago, I wrote in this column that “Obama is overrated.” Technically, this comment might still be true, as Obama’s stratospheric public image is hard to live up to, but his recent performance has nearly matched his clippings.

Obama’s rise is attributable both to his political skills and to Democrats’ anti-war fervor and post-midterm confidence. Their sense is that any reasonable Democratic candidate could win in ’08, so why not have a candidate who has always been strongly against the war in Iraq, like Obama, rather than one, like Clinton, who has been dragged inch by inch into opposition? 

For current and former Hill staffers, their interest in Obama has been furtive. Many worked in, or at least very much admired, the Clinton administration. And it’s not a great career move to support Hillary’s opponent, if she ultimately waltzes into the White House. Even so, Democrats are intrigued enough to attend the meetings and hear more.

Hollywood has a similar restlessness. Of course, much of Tinseltown will support Clinton as they supported her husband, but many in Hollywood have been complaining for years about Clinton’s move to the middle, and they view her vote on the war as unforgivable.  But most of all, the David Geffen dust-up shows that the top tier in the Democratic primary has narrowed to two — Clinton and Obama. 

Conventional wisdom holds that when two top candidates attack each other, the third is benefited.  But in the Geffen incident, it is just the opposite. John Edwards (John who?) was completely left out of the equation. Those in Hollywood who are willing to break from Clinton are heading to Obama’s camp and nowhere else.

If the caucuses and primaries began today, John Edwards would do well because of his strong organization in Iowa and his labor support. But if Obama clearly outdistances Edwards in the money race, as he is likely to do, Edwards’s strengths will dry up quickly.

Finally, the netroots liberal activists have gravitated to Obama as their candidate. It took Howard Dean until the beginning of the summer to ride the wave of their support, but Obama has it now.

Obama has harnessed Democratic confidence and anti-war sentiment by combining two seemingly incompatible attributes. He is at once the anti-war candidate, appealing to liberals who want red meat on the war, and the fresh-faced moderate persona who wants a new, less-divisive politics. And despite what skeptics say, Obama will win the black vote.

All this said, Hillary Clinton is still the frontrunner, with many more strengths than John Kerry had in 2004. But, unless Al Gore jumps in the race, she will have to fight one major candidate who is uniting the opposition to her, rather than many who are dividing it.

Obama’s Achilles’ heel is still his inexperience, which either Hillary Clinton or the Republican nominee could exploit. Do we want someone with so little experience running our country in a post-Sept. 11 world?

Then again, if Obama continues his rise, those meetings might not have to be secret anymore.

Fortier is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.