How will women fare in the 2006 elections? Pretty well, thank you. 1992 was dubbed by some as the “year of the woman,” but almost every congressional election has seen an increase in women, and this one is no exception.

The number of African-Americans in Congress, now 41, has remained fairly steady since 1992. The number of Hispanics, now 25, has increased over time, but most of the increases have occurred after redistricting when new Hispanic districts are drawn.

But for women, the story is almost always the same. There are more women each Congress and a steadily growing number of candidates. Currently, there are 14 women (five Republicans and nine Democrats) in the Senate, 14 percent of the Senate, and 67 women in the House (24 Republicans and 43 Democrats), 15 percent of the House. Compared to some European countries, the percentage is low. Sweden boasts over 45 percent women in its parliament, and the other Nordic countries over a third. But many countries achieve these lofty numbers with quotas either in law or by their parties. In America, our progress has been achieved naturally.

Consider that in 1975, there were only 19 women in the House and none in the Senate. In 1992, there was a big jump from 28 to 48 in the House and from two to six in the Senate. Since 1992, the numbers have increased steadily.

Research shows that women do just as well as men in running as incumbents, challenging incumbents, and running for open seats.  As more seats open up and as the number of women running for office increases, so inevitably does the number of women in Congress rise. According to the Center for American Women in Politics, there are 139 women running for the House on major-party tickets and 12 in the Senate, significantly up from 20 years ago. And as the National Council on State Legislatures reports, the pool of potential female candidates with political experience is deep, as women make up 22.6 percent of state legislatures.

In the 2006 elections the trend toward more women in Congress will surely continue. In the Senate, Amy Klobuchar leads Mark Kennedy (R-Minn.) by a significant margin, and will likely succeed Mark Dayton (D-Minn). In Missouri, the race between Jim Talent (R-Mo.) and Claire McCaskill is a dead heat. At the end of the day, we should expect 15 or 16 women in the Senate in the 110th, five Republicans and 10 or 11 Democrats.

In the House, women are likely to gain six to 10 seats.  There are six seats (Arizona-8, Hawaii-2, Ohio-13, Oklahoma-5, Minnesota-6, and New York-11) where women will almost certainly replace men, with one or two new Republican women and four or five Democratic. Democratic women challengers are in tight races against incumbents Christopher Shays (R-Conn.), Jim Gerlach (R-Pa.) and Dave Reichert (R-Wash.), as well as in Henry Hyde’s (R-Ill.) open seat. Interestingly, four Republican women incumbents, Deborah Pryce (R-Ohio), Jean Schmidt (R-Ohio), Marilyn Musgrave (R-Colo.) and Heather Wilson (R-N.M.) face strong challenges from Democratic women. Here the seats may shift party, but not gender. And a few Republican women could lose to male Democratic challengers: Thelma Drake (R-Va.) is the most vulnerable, but Nancy Johnson (R-Conn.) and Anne Northup (R-Ky.) also have competitive races. At the end of the day, look for the number of Republican women to remain near the current 24, and Democrats to end up in the 49-to-53 range.

And finally, just in case you didn’t notice, the Mark Foley scandal has made it likely that the 110th will see a female Speaker of the House.

Fortier is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.