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A vote for a bailout wasn’t political suicide, even if there is evidence that it hurt.
Contrary
to pre-election worries that a yes vote might equate to the end of a
career, the vote didn’t appear to be a pivotal one. Few voted for it
and lost, and those who did were already in serious jeopardy.
As
lawmakers confront whether or not to bail out the ailing auto industry,
a review of the election two weeks ago shows that, despite the
thousands upon thousands of letters and phone calls devoted to
protesting the $700 billion bailout package in October, their electoral
impact was negligible.
The members who survived will soon be
faced with another bailout, as the Senate could, by the end of the
week, vote on cloture for devoting $25 billion of the original $700
billion to saving the auto industry.
The Big Three automakers testified on Capitol Hill Tuesday, but they are not expected to have enough support for cloture.
Of
the 17 House incumbents who lost reelection, only five voted for the
bailout. And of those five, one — Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) — was
undone by a sex scandal, while another — Rep. Christopher Shays
(R-Conn.) — didn’t differ with his opponent on the issue.
Meanwhile,
endangered members like Reps. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), Jean Schmidt
(R-Ohio), Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.) and John Murtha (D-Pa.) all voted
for the bill and survived with relative ease.
Two of three
Senate incumbents to lose reelection so far — Sens. John Sununu
(R-N.H.) and Gordon Smith (R-Ore.) — voted for it, but their races
already favored Democrats when the bailout vote was held in early
October.
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), meanwhile, survived a
tight race in spite of his vote, and he could soon be joined by Sens.
Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) and Norm Coleman (R-Minn.), who voted yes and
are favored in races that remain undecided.
The majority of
the most endangered House members voted against the original bailout,
but a fair amount rolled the dice by voting yes.
Rep. Paul
Kanjorski (D-Pa.) was thought to be in a toss-up race heading into
Election Day. And as the second-ranking member on the Financial
Services Committee — who also voted for both House iterations of the
bailout — he was particularly susceptible to a bailout-related downfall.
In
the final weeks of the campaign, independent polling consistently
showed his opponent, Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R), with a slight
lead in the race, but Kanjorski won 52-48 — this despite Barletta
running ads on the issue and hitting Kanjorski on it at debates.
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