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Home arrow Leading The News arrow Analysis: Now both tickets have a celebrity
Leading The News PDF Print E-mail
Analysis: Now both tickets have a celebrity
Posted: 09/05/08 01:46 PM [ET]

ST. PAUL — Republicans left their convention with an energized base, a new political star and what appears to be a bump in the polls for standard-bearer Sen. John McCain.

In just a week, newly crowned vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin has electrified her party, boosted enthusiasm and provided a jump in funds for the McCain campaign, which said it raised millions during her primetime speech.

The question now for both campaigns is whether Alaska Gov. Palin’s impact will be short-term, or whether the contest between McCain (Ariz.) and Democrat Barack Obama has been indelibly changed.

Obama and Democrats left their convention a week ago feeling bullish. The Illinois senator enjoyed a six-percentage-point jump in the polls after delivering a primetime acceptance speech to nearly 40 million people that made history — the first African-American to lead a major party’s ticket. The speech was full of pageantry and fireworks for the benefit of television, and it was delivered to more than 80,000 in a festive football stadium.

Moreover, Obama appeared to unify the Democratic Party. Former rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) gave him a full-throated endorsement, as did her husband, President Bill Clinton. Early poll numbers showed Democratic and independent women turning to Obama, a possible sign that Clinton supporters were moving past the difficult Democratic primary.

A day later, Palin began to change the race, something that culminated in her speech Wednesday that was watched on television by nearly as many people who tuned in to Obama’s address.

Palin and the GOP convention may have erased Obama’s convention bump, although it is still difficult to say with certainty.

A CBS News Poll taken Sept. 1-3 found a tie in the race, with McCain and Obama both polling 42 percent. It found a large number of voters — 12 percent — undecided. The poll was taken prior to Palin’s speech.

A Sept. 2-4 Rasmussen found Obama with 48 percent of the vote and McCain with 46 percent. That poll did include some sampling of voters who may have seen Palin’s address, and Rasmussen concluded the contest was “basically” back to where it was before the Democratic convention.

Polls suggest one group of voters particularly energized by Palin is Republican women. Many might be more excited to vote for and work for McCain now that Palin is on the ticket. On the closing night of the GOP convention, Cindy McCain’s best applause lines came when she mentioned Palin.

Obama strategists hope Palin’s address, which delivered a number of attacks at Obama with sarcasm and a smile, will turn off suburban swing voters. Jason Johnson, a political science professor at Hiram College in northeast Ohio, said some independent voters might not like Palin’s “snarky” tone.

But Johnson acknowledged Palin has solidified the conservative base for McCain.

Even with the boost, McCain faces a number of challenges. He is running to succeed a deeply unpopular Republican president in a year when both parties are embracing voters’ call for change.

The U.S. economy has slowed and the sitting president is likely to be blamed. That could harm McCain, given Democrats’ steady push to tie him to President Bush. On Friday, Americans learned unemployment is 6.1 percent — a five-year high. In July, the U.S. economy lost 51,000 non-farm jobs.

Republicans in the House and Senate seem poised to lose seats regardless of the presidential race, leaving many Washington GOPers pessimistic about their ticket’s chances in the fall.

And McCain still faces Obama, a prodigious fundraiser and popular candidate.

Still, Republicans can now feel they’re contesting the presidential battle on an even playing field.

The war in Iraq has fallen from the front pages and appears to have turned the corner because of the surge in troops endorsed by McCain and opposed by Obama. In an interview with conservative Fox News television pundit Bill O’Reilly, Obama said the surge had succeeded beyond everyone’s “wildest dreams.”

And Palin has become a pop culture phenomenon capable of gracing the covers of celebrity magazines. This suggests the McCain ticket will not lack for attention, although he may need to adjust ads linking Obama to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears now that he seems to have a celebrity governor to battle the “celebrity senator” Obama.

 
 
 
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