A new poll shows Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr playing a possible spoiler role for the Republicans in the general election — the same role Democrats claim Ralph Nader played in 2000.

The Zogby International Poll is one of the first to show Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) beating Republican opponent Sen. John McCain (Ariz.).

And in the states categorized as too close to call, but where Obama holds a lead, McCain’s home state of Arizona might be the biggest surprise on the list.

According to Zogby, Obama is leading McCain in Arizona 42-39, with former Republican Rep. Barr picking up 7 percent of the vote — votes that would presumably go to McCain. By contrast, Nader is polling at only 2 percent in the state.

In North Carolina and Virginia, two states Obama is hoping to add to the blue column, Barr again hurts McCain even as Nader is preparing to campaign in both states next week.In North Carolina, a state that helped Obama clinch the Democratic nomination, the Illinois senator comes in with 47 percent to McCain’s 38 percent. Barr garners 4 percent.

In Virginia, a state that has been trending Democratic, Barr ostensibly robs McCain by securing 5 percent.

As it stands, the poll shows Obama leading in the Old Dominion 44 percent to 39 percent.

Overall, of nine states Zogby says are too close to call, Obama takes seven that would presumably go to McCain if Barr weren’t polling as strongly. Two additional states — Montana and North Dakota — were counted as too close to call but were not polled.

Spokespersons for both Barr and Nader insisted that their candidates’ goals are to offer voters a choice in November.

“He’s running because he believes people need a choice,” said Audrey Mullen, a spokeswoman for Barr.
Chris Driscoll, a spokesman for Nader, said the campaign is not worried about swinging the election to McCain despite the anger many Democrats still feel, blaming Nader for costing Vice President Al Gore the election in 2000.

“We worry about getting our votes, and we let them worry about getting theirs,” Driscoll said. “That’s the way it works. It’s competition. That’s democracy.”

Driscoll said Nader would likely eclipse $1 million raised when the next fundraising filing is released this month. He said their website has seen increased traffic and contributions as many on the left believe Obama is tacking to the right on the Iraq war and FISA.

One Democratic strategist acknowledged that perception could cost Obama with “true believers,” but that overall most Democrats are more “hungry for a win” than to vote for Nader.

“I think Bob Barr’s going to have a much bigger impact in this election than Ralph Nader will, and I don’t know how much impact Bob Barr will have,” the strategist said.

— Sam Youngman

McCain: Iran’s missile tests show need for shield

The two major-party presidential candidates on Wednesday reacted to news that Iran had tested a long-range missile, with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) saying that the show of force highlights the need for a missile shield while Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) said it is time for direct talks with Tehran.

Both candidates agreed that there is a need to work with allies in Europe and in the region to address the potential security threat.

“Ballistic missile testing, coupled with Iran’s continued refusal to cease its nuclear activities, should unite the international community in efforts to counter Iran’s dangerous ambitions,” McCain stated.

However, while Obama said that the U.S. should start engaging “in the kind of direct diplomacy that can lead them to standing down on issues like nuclear weapons,” his Republican opponent countered that “working with our European and regional allies is the best way to meet the threat posed by Iran, not unilateral concessions that undermine multilateral diplomacy.”

Obama, in an interview with ABC’s “Good Morning America,” strongly criticized the Bush administration for its “over-the-top rhetoric” and the “mixed signal” that increased trade with Iran has shown.

McCain argued that the tests “demonstrate the need for effective missile defense now and in the future, and this includes missile defense in Europe, as is planned with the Czech Republic and Poland.”

— Klaus Marre

Davis: Race ‘over’ if it becomes referendum on Bush

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) cannot win the presidency if the election becomes a referendum on President Bush, a prominent Republican lawmaker declared Wednesday.

“If this is a referendum on Bush, then this race is over,” Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) said on a conference call with reporters.

Davis acknowledged the political environment is tough for Republicans because Bush’s numbers have been “in the trash can.”

But Davis cautioned that the presidential race could also well come down to whether Democratic candidate Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) is able to positively familiarize himself with voters who don’t know much about him.

Davis was complimentary of Obama and his oratorical abilities, but he said the Illinois senator has been ducking a confrontation with McCain and only recently “starting to pick up on some inconsistencies.”

“He’s been walking on water, to some extent, in the beginning part of the campaign,” Davis said.

Davis, talking to reporters on a call arranged by the Republican National Committee (RNC), said he thinks McCain will hold on in Virginia and keep the state red despite recent trends.

“Unless you get a 35-state sweep and, in that case, all bets are off,” he said.

—  S.Y.

McCain set for Conan

Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) is set to appear on “Late Night with Conan O’Brien” for the first time since he announced he was running for president.

The appearance is set for July 18. NBC said McCain has appeared on the show twice before, in 2004 and 2005.

—  S.Y.