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Republican strategist Mike Murphy said Tuesday that he is not taking an official role with Arizona Sen. John McCain’s campaign, ending days of speculation that the Republican presidential candidate’s organization was set for another shake-up.
And even though Murphy tried to stop the talk of more upheaval by quashing his interest in a campaign position, he acknowledged that the more there are rumors and reports of changes in campaign leadership, the more potential there is for damage to the candidate.
“I think it is insider stuff and not helpful, although I think it is mostly ignored by voters as it should be,” said Murphy, who was a major adviser to McCain’s 2000 presidential campaign, in an e-mail to The Hill. “But I tried to move fast [Tuesday morning] to put an end to any further speculation about me. But I think all staff owes it to McCain to simmer down and end the intrigue. He can still win and he needs a solid campaign.”
In contrast, the lack of shake-ups, discord or back-biting from Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama’s (Ill.) campaign is not just night-and-day different from McCain’s team, but a remarkable story in itself, according to both Democratic and Republican strategists.
“It really has been remarkable,” said Dan Schnur, McCain’s communications director in 2000.
Schnur noted that last fall when Obama continued to trail Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and outsiders were second-guessing the campaign’s performance, Obama campaign insiders did not publicly turn on one another.
“That was the time you would have seen some dissension and disarray,” Schnur said. “But you didn’t, and that’s to their credit.”
On the other hand, Clinton’s campaign was racked by outward displays of infighting and turmoil, and most strategists contacted for this story agreed that was part of the downfall because it convoluted the overall campaign strategy.
McCain’s campaign, they said, is not there yet, and a spokesman for the Arizona senator insisted that some “adjustments” are necessary over the course of a campaign.
“These adjustments are the positive result of a campaign expanding into a winning posture,” Tucker Bounds, a McCain spokesman, said. “We’re focused on winning this election and highlighting Sen. McCain’s superior record of leadership and principle — plain and simple.”
Charlie Black, a senior McCain adviser and long-time Republican operative, also said the campaign is focused and added that the campaign team is firmly in place.
“We’re not distracted,” Black said.
Talk of another McCain team shake-up came just a week after senior adviser Steve Schmidt was elevated within the campaign. That action came after weeks of complaining by Republican insiders that McCain’s campaign, under the director of campaign manager Rick Davis, had not taken advantage of a several-month head start against Obama.
For all practical purposes, Davis appears to be out at the top after landing there following last year’s near-fatal campaign implosion.
Unhappiness with Davis, buzz about Schmidt and questions about Murphy opened up another round of second-guessing and media speculation about turmoil at the top of the Republican ticket.
Most analysts agreed that shake-up reports are only dangerous if either the result is ineffective or if it leads to a prolonged narrative of a campaign in disarray.
And they noted that campaign shake-ups are noticed primarily by insiders while voters pay scant attention. The problem, they said, is when the turmoil or infighting that leads to a shake-up is so prevalent that it either distracts the media from the overall campaign message or leads to shoddy campaign appearances.
An example of the latter, noted Democratic strategist Steve Elmendorf, was the contrast in performances by McCain and Obama on the night Obama wrapped up the Democratic nomination.
Obama’s rock star appearance in an arena packed with 17,000 adoring fans stood out in sharp contrast to McCain’s appearance in front of 600 supporters while the candidate spoke in front of what most observers described as a hideous green background.
Schnur said he was disappointed to hear that Murphy won’t be joining the campaign, but his decision and the circumstances surrounding the possibility are only a problem if the story endures.
“You only get stories about disarray when things aren’t falling into place,” Schnur said.
Schnur pointed to last year’s shake-up when former campaign manager Terry Nelson and long-time McCain aide John Weaver were let go and Davis came into place. The campaign had squandered millions of dollars, and McCain’s chances for the nomination were considered unlikely following a no-holds-barred media frenzy.
“Shake-ups are only a problem if they don’t work,” Schnur said. “Last year’s worked.”
Democratic strategist Dan Gerstein agreed that shake-ups are only damaging if they are a part of a pattern.
“Oftentimes shake-ups lead to better performance, so I think it’s wrong to assume it’s a sign of trouble or danger,” Gerstein said. “If it’s effective, if it rights the ship, then it’s soon forgotten.” |