Long-serving House Democrats, particularly black lawmakers, fear that the gavel fight between Reps. John Dingell and Henry Waxman will “open a can of worms” and wreck the seniority system that keeps power in their hands.

A successful coup against Dingell (D-Mich.), head of the Energy and Commerce panel, could encourage Young Turks to attack the seniority system, which rewards years of service, and send a signal that all top jobs are now fair game.

Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D), an African-American from Missouri and a strong proponent of the seniority system, said Dingell’s ejection would mean “nobody is safe based on seniority, and that is going to cause a high level of disenchantment.”

Cleaver, who has not publicly endorsed Dingell or Waxman, said many members of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) don’t want to undermine seniority.

Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.), a member of the CBC, added, “The seniority system has been successful. I don’t think we should do anything to undermine it.”

Meeks said he is supporting Dingell because a Waxman victory would weaken the power of seniority.

“You have a member who has served as chair and has seniority and would be unseated who is next in line and that could set off a chain of events where people begin to run against and not respect the seniority system.”

Senior lawmakers who are neutral in the Waxman-Dingell race agree that a Waxman victory could goad other ambitious lawmakers into challenging sitting chairmen.

“Then it opens up a can of worms and a lot of people are running for a lot of positions in the future; maybe in a year or two years someone could be challenged,” said Rep. Joe Baca (D), a 10-year House veteran from California.

Baca, who hasn’t taken sides publicly with either candidate, said weakening the seniority system has pros and cons. It could give hope to younger lawmakers who might otherwise wait decades to become chairmen.

Waxman’s challenge is problematic for many lawmakers because Dingell has been a hardworking chairman. He has clashed with Pelosi and other chairmen but has mostly toed the party line and avoided scandal.

If he lost, it could trigger speculation about a challenge down the road against Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.), who is embroiled in controversy over unpaid taxes on tens of thousands of dollars in rental income from a property in the Dominican Republic. Rangel has also been scrutinized for occupying four rent-stabilized apartments in Manhattan, which critics consider a possible gift from his landlord in violation of House rules.

Rangel, whose gavel has not been challenged this year, supports Dingell over Waxman.

Other senior lawmakers, however, say Dingell’s loss would not necessarily imperil other chairmen.

“I don’t think that would do anything to the seniority system,” said Rep. Jim Moran (D-Va.), an 18-year veteran.

Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-Minn.), chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, said more senior lawmakers have lost chairmanship bids in the past and it didn’t significantly weaken the system.