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If Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton becomes secretary of State, she could find her voice diminished on the domestic policies she cares deeply about while at the same time playing second fiddle to White House aides on foreign policy.
It also raises the question of whether President-elect Barack Obama would be neutralizing his formal rival or giving Clinton a strong platform for another shot at the White House.
While neither Obama’s transition team nor Clinton aides will confirm that a Cabinet offer has been made, speculation has reached a fever pitch that the New York Democrat is the lead contender for the job.
But she is said to be struggling with whether to leave the Senate, and a role in shaping healthcare reform, or go to the State Department, where her voice could be drowned out by a vice president with extensive foreign policy experience.
Democratic strategists and analysts contacted for this story agreed that Clinton would be an effective head of the State Department, but they also acknowledged the decision cannot be easy for her.
Paul Light, a professor at New York University and an expert on presidential transitions, said Clinton would do well to study the modern history of battles between the national security adviser (NSA) and secretary of State and remember that the NSA “sits right down the hall from the president.”
And then there’s Joe Biden. The vice president-elect chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and has long been the Democratic go-to on foreign affairs. Light points out that with Biden in the White House, Clinton could well find herself in the same kind of competition on issues she would face in the Senate.
“You’re part of a team,” Light said, “and there’s quite a bit of infighting within the executive branch over who has the final say. Depending on the issue, she may have a lot of competition.”
Light cited battles between NSA Henry Kissinger and Secretary of State William Rogers during the Nixon administration, a war Rogers ultimately lost to Kissinger.
“We always have to remember that we don’t have a Cabinet government in this country,” Light said. “This is a White House centered system now.”
But Light noted that given Clinton’s stature, the person being considered for the other side of that equation might be the one worried about having the president’s ear.
“If I was being offered national security adviser, I might be wondering what Hillary Clinton was going to do,” he said. Obama, in his post-election interviews, has cited Team of Rivals, historian Doris Kearns Goodwin’s book on Abraham Lincoln’s Cabinet, as a major influence in his decision-making.
And during the Democratic primary season, Obama even joked about Clinton advising him.
In the final debate before the Iowa caucuses, Obama was asked, if elected, how he could rely on former President Clinton’s advisers and still deliver a break from the past
When Clinton heard the question, she laughed and said: “I want to hear that.”
Obama responded: “Hillary, I’m looking forward to you advising me as well.”
An added concern to a possible Clinton Cabinet post is the senator’s own political ambitions. She has given no hint as to whether she might make a future presidential run. And if she would consider such a move, that raises the question of whether the State job would neutralize such a bid or elevate her stature.
And there’s the added fact that Biden may be thinking similar thoughts. The party’s vice president is usually considered the heir to the nomination.
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