“If Obama and Clinton come out even after Super Tuesday and Edwards had 50 delegates, Edwards could make a difference if [superdelegates] are split,” said Wayne. “Edwards is not going to drop out if he can have an impact.”
At the Democratic convention this August, delegates will be allowed to vote freely even if they are already pledged to a candidate, Wayne explained. But he expected that Edwards’s delegates would do his bidding.
Wayne said that Edwards’s delegates have been “hand-picked” because of their loyalty.
“That loyalty would probably extend to the convention, though Democrats have a rule that would not impose loyalty,” he explained.
Wayne, however, predicted that either Clinton or Obama would probably wrap up the nomination before the convention, but conceded “anything is possible.”
The scenario of a brokered convention could unfold in the GOP race, though analysts consider it less likely because most of the Republican primary states allocate all delegates to the winner. Unlike at the Democratic convention, Republican candidates would control the delegates pledged to them and could give support directly to a rival.
If either former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) or McCain, the candidates leading in the delegate count, fail to open up a commanding lead before the convention, one of their rivals could have a decisive influence.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) has seven delegates to his name and could capture more by winning in Southern states where evangelical Christians make up a large percentage of the electorate. While many states allocate all their Republican delegates to the statewide winner, several do so proportionally, opening a door for Huckabee or former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani to pick up more votes.
In Alabama, for example, if no candidate wins more than half the vote, each receives delegates provided he wins at least 20 percent. In Arkansas, where Huckabee can expect a strong performance, delegates are also assigned based on voting percentages if no candidate wins with more than half. In Florida, delegates go to any candidate who wins one of the state’s 25 congressional districts.
Giuliani is likely to pick up delegates in Florida and could also win New York and New Jersey depending on his performance Tuesday in the Sunshine State [The Florida Republican Party will give all of its delegates to the winner of the state’s primary. The party originally planned to give delegates to candidates who carried the most votes in individual congressional delegates].
If Huckabee or Giuliani stays in the race long enough to be able to wield delegates at the GOP convention in September, yet has no chance of winning the nomination, many political analysts expect either would support McCain. Despite the competitive primary, both candidates have maintained cordial relations with McCain while fighting bitterly with Romney.
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