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A new Gallup poll suggests John McCain’s post-convention bump may be filtering down as an increasing number of voters said they will vote for a Republican in this fall’s congressional races. The latest USA Today/Gallup poll, released Friday, did not indicate specific candidates, but instead asked voters whether they would support a Republican or Democrat. The results show Democrats’ double-digit generic ballot lead shrinking to just 48 percent to 45 percent, within the 3 percent margin of error. That is a marked shift from a measure that has consistently shown a strong advantage for Democrats throughout the cycle. In fact, Democrats have led in the Gallup generic ballot measure since early 2004.An even starker result is Republicans’ newfound advantage among likely voters. While the Democrats lead by three among registered voters, likely voters say they will vote for a generic Republican candidate over a generic Democrat by a 50-45 margin. That measure favored Democrats by a 51-42 margin just prior to the Democratic National Convention in late August.
The results of the latest poll were collected beginning Friday, the day after the Republican National Convention last week, through Sunday. A CNN/Opinion Research poll conducted over the same span also showed a 3 percent gap, 49-46, while other polls from this week have seen the generic ballot narrowing but still clearly favoring Democrats by seven or eight points.
Republicans suggested the new polling means predictions of Democrats’ gains in House and Senate races might be premature. “The new USA Today/Gallup measurement of generic ballot preferences for Congress casts some doubt on the previously assumed inevitability of the Democrats' maintaining control of Congress,” said a spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), Rebecca Fisher. Democrats pointed out that generic ballot polling always fluctuates between the national parties’ conventions and the election and suggested that they wouldn’t even be surprised if Republicans gained an advantage. The Democrats are counting on their superior national House and Senate committees, which have recruited more top challengers and raised more money than their Republican counterparts. Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC), noted that his committee continues to see its candidates improving their position in the polls in a number of states. For example, an internal Democratic poll on Friday showed Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) leading Sen. Gordon Smith (R-Ore.) for the first time this cycle. Referring to the Gallup poll, Miller said: “It’s too early to draw any conclusions about whether that’s one poll in one week in early September or whether that’s a lasting change to the electorate. … I think it takes a couple weeks to see how things shake out.”
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