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A trio of contested open primaries with big implications for the GOP’s ability to win back seats will be held Tuesday in some of the more Republican-leaning districts that flipped Democratic in 2006.
House Republican campaign head Tom Cole (Okla.) said shortly after the 2006 election that Republicans would see no shortage of candidates in 2008, and that’s certainly been the case in three key races in Ohio and Texas.
Few primaries have proven as unpredictable as in two districts that the party lost due to ethics issues — those currently held by Reps. Nick Lampson (D-Texas) and Zack Space (D-Ohio). Six hopefuls have raised big money in Lampson’s district, while the multi-candidate race to battle Space has been slow-forming and relatively cash-poor.
Another seat that flipped Democratic in 2006, now held by Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-Texas), will feature a previously unknown self-funder against an established county commissioner who entered the race only recently.
So far this cycle, some tough Republican primaries have thrown into question the GOP nominee’s viability. In former Rep. Dennis Hastert’s (R-Ill.) district, for instance, state Sen. Chris Lauzen still has not endorsed nominee Jim Oberweis, even though there is just a week to go before the special election. Oberweis defeated Lauzen in the primary held Feb. 5.
Cole, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), said Monday that it’s not his place to get involved in those primaries, especially this cycle.
He said such decisions might also cause candidates harm in an anti-Washington environment.
“The idea that we sit up on some mountaintop like Zeus throwing thunderbolts down is riskier than not,” Cole said at a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. “We don’t have the resources to do it right now, and I don’t think we have the credibility to do it.”
Little is certain about the three crucial GOP primaries taking place Tuesday.
In Space’s district, three candidates — former state Agriculture head Fred Dailey, attorney Jeanette Moll and Iraq veteran and attorney Paul Phillips — have raised around $100,000 each, but it’s unclear how the primary will shake out.
In Texas, former Rep. Shelley Sekula Gibbs, a doctor who served in the House briefly between Election Day 2006 and Lampson’s swearing-in, is widely expected to make a runoff contest for his seat. National insiders see former Senate aide Pete Olson or former Pasadena Mayor John Manlove as her likely opponent, but three other candidates have also raised significant money.
Against Rodriguez, attorney Francisco “Quico” Canseco has spent $900,000 of his own money to keep running ads and building name recognition. Bexar County Commissioner Lyle Larson only entered the race in January but has a strong grassroots network that he can tap.
A Lauzen-Oberweis-like situation could be brewing in that race. Canseco has said Larson can’t win in the general election in a heavily Hispanic district.
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