The most vulnerable House Democratic incumbents are expected to demonstrate considerable fundraising strength next week in their first-quarter campaign-finance filings.
Early reports for Frontline Democrats, those considered the most vulnerable in 2008, suggest each lawmaker may outperform 2005 first-quarter fundraising by about $60,000, according to a Democratic leadership aide.
In 2003, the average Frontliner had $127,000 cash on hand after the first quarter. For the corresponding period in 2005, they had $184,000 in cash on hand, and in 2007, the 29 Frontliners will report an average of $287,000 cash on hand for the quarter, according to a Democratic leadership aide.
Congressional and campaign aides have confirmed that Rep. Ron Klein (D-Fla.) raised more than $500,000, as did Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). Klein raised nearly $4 million to defeat then-Rep. Clay Shaw (R-Fla.) last year.
Rep. Tim Mahoney (D-Fla.) could show he raised more than $400,000, and Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) raised more than $300,000. Rep. John Hall (D-N.Y.) raised $349,000, and second-term Democratic Reps. Jim Marshall (Ga.), John Barrow (Ga.) and Melissa Bean (Ill.) also raised more than $300,000. Marshall and Barrow narrowly won reelection in 2006.
That Frontline Democrats have done better in 2007 than 2005 is not surprising given that Democrats now control both chambers of Congress. Still, most are freshmen raising money for their first reelection bids, and strong numbers show both a capacity to raise money early in the election cycle and the ability to raise more money later in the cycle, which could deter Republicans from targeting Democrats who won by margins of fewer than five points.
“The more money you have gives pause to opponents,” said ex-Rep. Tony Coelho (Calif.), formerly the House Democratic whip. “With President Bush’s numbers right now, Republican opponents have to think doubly hard about running. It gives the Democrats an insurance policy and it means the Republicans have fewer vulnerable incumbents to go after.”
The money chase started days after Democrats won control of the House and Senate. The Hill reported in February that some freshmen raised $35,000 to $83,000 between Election Day and the swearing-in of the new Congress. The brisk fundraising rate has allowed some to eliminate debt incurred during the campaign.
Overall, Democrats have been well ahead of Republicans this year. At the presidential level, Democratic candidates outpaced the GOP field, $78 million to $51 million. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) raked in $26 million, setting a fundraising record. But Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) raised $25 million from twice as many donors.
The highest-profile GOP freshman, Rep. Peter Roskam (Ill.) — who defeated Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth — has reported raising $227,000.
