A Republican is supposed to carry Indiana and Kentucky. If he ties in the national race, he is supposed to win each of these two states by nine points apiece.

So what is happening? With 13 percent of the vote in, McCain is winning Indiana by three points, five less than he should. But he is winning Kentucky, with 14 percent of the vote in, by 11 points — two points more than he should.

We need to watch these two states closely. Once half or more of the vote is in and we can begin to figure out what is happening, they should give us a clue to what is happening nationally.

Kentucky could be biased against Obama because of his comments about bankrupting the coal industry yesterday, but let’s watch these two states to figure out what is going on.