Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) holds important advantages in the states that decided recent presidential elections, despite the strong headwind Republicans face this November.

Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire show promise for Republicans hoping to hold the White House amid a housing crisis, record gas prices and the Iraq war.

Part of that is because he is in a financial position to do so, but Obama might be looking elsewhere not just because he can but because he must.

An internal Obama campaign e-mail on Tuesday pointed to polls showing that the senator is leading or trailing narrowly in Missouri, Georgia, Colorado and Nevada — all states that went for President Bush.

While many political experts believe Obama will do better in red states than Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) did four years ago and Vice President Al Gore did in 2000, the Electoral College, unlike the Democratic National Committee primary, is winner-take-all.

Michigan — 17 electoral votes

Michigan provided McCain with a brief resuscitation during his failed run against Bush in 2000.

Earlier this year he campaigned hard there before losing to native son and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) by nine percentage points.

Because of residual good will and Obama’s decision not to campaign or compete in the state’s primary, McCain enjoys an early but narrow lead in the state.

Ken Pohlman, a political science professor at the University of Michigan, said that the state’s fiscally conservative Republicans, who don’t put a heavy focus on social issues, particularly in the Detroit suburbs, could bode well for McCain.

“I think McCain will appeal to that type of person,” Pohlman said. “If I were the Republicans, I would think Michigan is in play. McCain is the type of Republican who can win Michigan.”

McCain’s chances of winning Michigan would be enhanced if he picks Romney to be on the ticket.

RealClearPolitics poll average: Obama +1

New Hampshire — Four electoral votes

The Granite State has provided McCain with a lot of smiles over the past eight years, first in 2000 when he blew then-Texas Gov. George Bush out of the water. The state and its independent voters helped McCain cement his comeback after last summer’s campaign implosion.

While all that and an early lead should give McCain hope that he can win there, New Hampshire has been turning a deeper shade of blue in recent years, with Democrats holding both House seats and the governor’s office.

There is a silver lining for the Arizona senator, according to Dante Scala, a political science professor at the University of New Hampshire.

“I think McCain has a better shot than any of his competitors from the primaries,” Scala said. “I think if anybody’s going to pull it off, it would be McCain.”

Obama, who was surprised by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) in New Hampshire, has a lot of inroads to make with white, blue-collar and Catholic voters, Scala said.

RealClearPolitics average: Obama +0.7

Pennsylvania — 21 electoral votes

Despite consistent Democratic wins in the commonwealth, Pennsylvania is still considered by most analysts to be a swing state.

Obama was bruised in the April primary following the Rev. Jeremiah Wright controversy, and Clinton was able to secure a big victory by winning enough of the more conservative, white voters outside of Philadelphia. McCain would have to follow Clinton’s playbook, to an extent, if he hopes to capture the state.

If McCain can connect with enough rural, blue-collar voters in the middle and northeast parts of the state, and pull the so-called Rendell Republicans or Casey Democrats in the upper valleys over to his side, then he might be able to offset the expected wave of support Obama will likely garner from Philadelphia, its suburbs and possibly the Pittsburgh area.

Terry Madonna, the director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin & Marshall College, said McCain has to blunt Obama’s support in the Philadelphia suburbs, home to 2004’s “security moms.”

The problem, Madonna said, is that this year security moms will likely be economy moms.

“Unless he can do something in the suburbs … I don’t know how he can win,” Madonna said.

But Republicans have demonstrated success in the past in winning over anti-abortion rights Catholics and white blue-collar voters, and McCain is just the type of Republican who can approach those voting factions, Madonna said.

Obama will enjoy the support of Gov. Ed Rendell (D), a one-man political machine, though McCain still has a solid surrogate and friend in former Gov. Tom Ridge (R).

All in all, it’s an uphill climb for McCain in a state Bush visited more than 30 times in 2004 but lost to Kerry.

RealClearPolitics average: Obama +7.7