House Speaker Nancy Pelosi shoots across the stone floors of the Capitol in short, rapid steps. But lately, a close observer might notice a bit of swagger.

After stumbling through an embarrassing first year in the majority getting stiff-armed by President Bush, Pelosi (D-Calif.) has started landing punches on the president and House Republicans.

But she also stared down the other side on warrantless wiretapping. Then she parried the Republicans’ earmark initiative until they changed the subject.

And she scored a victory on ethics by daring Republicans — and members of her own party — to face angry voters if they voted against her reform bill.

Compare that to last year when Pelosi and her fellow Democrats often appeared hapless. Bush swatted away their hard-fought efforts to set a withdrawal date on Iraq with a quick wave of his veto pen, rolled Pelosi and Democratic leaders on warrantless wiretapping and refused to negotiate on spending bills, forcing them to cave.

“Last year was a disaster for her,” said Rep. Ray LaHood (R-Ill.). “This year, she’s been very successful with Colombia. And she deserves all the credit for sticking it in Bush’s eye on FISA [the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act]. She’s done it single-handedly.”

Though Pelosi may be reveling in her victories, she has numerous obstacles and pitfalls looming, not least of which is what to do about Iraq, the biggest disappointment of her tenure as Speaker.

If she doesn’t use the upcoming Iraq spending bill to force a troop withdrawal, the good will she’s built up from the left of her party will evaporate. But if she does, she risks the same draining, unwinnable policy fight she had last year on Iraq.

“She has not even been able to put a dent in Bush’s policy on the war,” LaHood said.

Some Pelosi advocates note Pelosi’s winning streak began with the economic stimulus package she negotiated with congressional Republicans and the Bush administration. The bipartisanship she demonstrated showed that she didn’t simply oppose the GOP on everything and gave her a well of political capital.

“She watches; she listens; she learns and adjusts when necessary,” said Carolyn Bartholomew, a former Pelosi chief of staff.

Steve Smith, a political science professor at Washington University in St. Louis, said Bush’s unpopularity has given congressional Democrats a shot of confidence.

“Democrats are feeling their oats,” Smith said. “They’re thinking public opinion has shifted at least a little in their direction.”

Republican leaders claim Pelosi has wasted money by blocking earmark reform, added a layer of bureaucracy with the ethics plan, damaged national security with the Democratic surveillance bill and “cheated” on the free trade agreement.

“Not a record to be proud of in any way, shape or form,” said Michael Steel, spokesman for House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio).

Former GOP Majority Leader Dick Armey thinks Pelosi has an “embarrassing” record of failures. He said he’s puzzled by her inability to deal with the procedural motions that Republicans have been throwing at her, called “motions to recommit.”

But while he considers it wrong and shortsighted, he says Pelosi’s move on trade rules is “good politics within her party,” and left Bush rather stunned.

“President Bush is kind of an old-school, Marquess of Queensberry kind of guy,” Armey said. “I think he saw this as kind of outside good sportsmanship.”

Armey sees her hard line on trade as a way to boost her popularity in the party and back off Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) as a leadership rival by making it clear she’s “right in the president’s face.”

The trade fight also shows how Pelosi has used her home-field advantage in recent fights. Unlike Iraq policy and spending bills that dominated last year, Bush came to Congress demanding approval for his trade deal. The president appeared to have an advantage under fast-track rules, but Pelosi found a way to shut him down.

“They did not know what we could do,” said Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel (Ill.).
She enjoyed the same advantage on the ethics fight. Her tactics there were not pretty.

In her attempt to break with the Republican Congress she’d deemed “the most corrupt in history,” she had to break her own rules and borrow a tool from those she’d deemed “corrupt” — holding a vote open until she had the votes to win. That invited comparisons to the 2003 Medicare vote Republicans held open for three hours for arm-twisting.

Republicans sought to hammer Pelosi on earmarks to cast Democrats as big-government spenders and highlight her ties to master earmarker Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.). Pelosi played coy on whether she would follow suit, but used every opportunity to point out that plenty of Republicans wanted earmarks of their own.

Pelosi took her biggest risk on terrorist surveillance. Republicans have a longstanding advantage on national security issues, and Democratic leaders had already given in once last summer when they passed the Protect America Act.

But Democrats declined to reauthorize PAA. Amid a sustained campaign of radio ads, talking points and GOP procedural motions, Democrats passed a surveillance bill that didn’t include Bush’s demand — legal immunity for telecom companies that had participated in the administration’s warrantless wiretapping program.

Democratic leadership aides said they’d prepared for an onslaught of GOP attacks during the Easter break after the vote. Then: nothing.

Republicans say they bypassed the national media and took their case to local outlets. Armey said he figures his party has simply decided to kick the issue to the election.

“There’s a tendency in my party to have a vote and then say, ‘OK, we’ll take it out there and hammer them with it,’ ” Armey said.