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As the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination moves to Pennsylvania, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) enjoys a polling lead and several organizational advantages that could make the Keystone State an uphill battle for Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.).
After big wins Tuesday night in Texas and Ohio, Clinton is looking to solidify her argument that while she might trail Obama in delegates, she has been winning big states and swing states.
Seven weeks ahead of the next big contest in Pennsylvania on April 22, Clinton enjoys a 9 percentage point lead over Obama, according to the RealClearPolitics average.
Her advantage also lies in the people she has on the ground, who know how to win in Pennsylvania. Gov. Ed Rendell is an ardent Clinton supporter, a former Democratic National Committee chairman and a politician who knows Philadelphia like the back of his hand.
Rendell’s endorsement is huge, and he is a key asset for Clinton as she looks to extend the calendar. Rendell made it clear that he intends to be a player in this race, issuing a statement through the Clinton press office early Wednesday, the morning after her victories in Texas and neighboring Ohio.
“I am confident that Hillary is heading into Pennsylvania with momentum and a new energy,” Rendell said.
Clinton also enjoys the support of Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter and state party Chairman T.J. Rooney.
Rooney told The Hill that he expects 300 operatives who were working in Ohio and Texas to move to the state in the coming days.
“The circus has come to town,” Rooney said. “That’s just the beginning of the story.”
Rooney’s top aide and veteran Pennsylvania political operative, Mary Isenhour, went to work as Clinton’s state director Wednesday morning.
Longtime Clinton aide Tony Podesta, who ran Sen. John Kerry’s (D-Mass.) successful Keystone State campaign in 2004, is back on board, as is Kerry’s 2004 press secretary, Mark Nevins.
Clinton also continues to enjoy the counsel of strategists Paul Begala and James Carville, no strangers to the Pennsylvania political scene.
The famous duo helped two Democrats win statewide contests: the late Gov. Bob Casey, who won the governor’s office in 1986; and former Sen. Harris Wofford, elected in 1991.
“This is her state. It’s her turf,” said Terry Madonna, director of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa.
A number of congressional members remain on the fence, and the candidates are no doubt pushing hard for their support. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. and Reps. Robert Brady, Jason Altmire, Chris Carney, John Murtha, Mike Doyle and Tim Holden still have not endorsed either candidate.
Madonna predicted that Obama will likely win Philadelphia on the strength of heavy black turnout, and Clinton will win Western Pennsylvania and the Scranton and Wilkes-Barre areas, home to the so-called “Reagan Democrats” or “Casey Republicans.”
That equation leaves South Central Pennsylvania, the Philadelphia suburbs and the Lehigh Valley in a position to “probably decide this,” Madonna said.
The critical Philadelphia suburbs would appear “on paper” to be a plus for Obama, given the high number of higher-income, educated Democrats. But Madonna noted that those suburbs are also home to a high number of what in 2004 were called “security moms,” who have leaned toward Clinton in other states.
Clinton also enjoys an advantage in the religious demographic, Madonna said, noting that one-third of the state is Catholic.
Exit polls from Ohio Tuesday night showed Clinton winning Catholic voters by a margin of almost 2 to 1.
Jamal Simmons, a Democratic strategist and Obama supporter, said Obama has to make his way back into the good graces of voting blocs he had wrested away from Clinton in places like Wisconsin.
“He [has] got to find a way to convince working-class whites to get back on board,” Simmons said. “He has got to really cut into her base.”
Simmons also said Obama will need continued heavy turnout with black voters and around college campuses.
Obama must also end the chatter about trade, which intensified during the so-called “NAFTA-gate” dust-up that haunted Obama in the closing days of the Ohio primary, Simmons said.
“He has got to change that story,” Simmons said. “He has got to make clear his position, make clear to his staff his position.”
After two months of state-to-state sprints, the campaigns now face a marathon with one prize on the horizon.
“I think it’s going to be brutal,” Madonna said.
Mike Sherry contributed to this report. |