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Most political experts believe Democrats will soon control the White House and have comfortable majorities in the House and Senate.
While there is some dispute among our experts on both sides of the aisle over how close the presidential race will be, no one is predicting a good night for GOP officials on Capitol Hill.
But will Democrats get to 60 seats in the Senate? Will the party come close to matching its 30-seat House seat pickup in 2006?
The political experts and celebrities below weigh in. We will honor the prognosticator who makes the most accurate prediction in our Thursday edition.
Joe Scarborough
Joe Scarborough is defending his 2006 crown, when his crystal ball was crystal-clear. Two years ago, Scarborough not only predicted Democrats would capture control of the House and Senate, he also got the numbers right — 30 pickups in the House and six in the Senate.
The host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” believes the presidential race will be tighter than most expect.
“I think the presidential race is tightening,” Scarborough said on Sunday night.
Obama will win the White House, but McCain will take Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia, he said.
Pennsylvania will go to Obama, who will get around 290 electoral votes.
Congressional Democrats will score big on Tuesday, Scarborough said, predicting they will get to 60 in the Senate (including an Al Franken triumph) and pick up 23 in the House.
Lanny Davis
Lanny Davis, former White House special counsel to President Clinton, says Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will best Republican rival Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) 53 to 45 percent nationally and attract 350 electoral votes.
Obama will win Virginia and North Carolina and barely lose Georgia, according to Davis, a contributor to The Hill’s Pundits Blog.
Democrats will pick up 35 seats in the House and nine in the Senate.
Al Franken will win, Davis predicts, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) will lose.
The big story coming out of the election will be a question, Davis said.
“Will Democrats squander a landslide victory?” Davis asks, adding that news reports will reference how President Lyndon Johnson’s victory in 1964 was followed by Vietnam and how Clinton’s 1992 win was followed by the GOP takeover of Congress two years later.
Fran Drescher
There is not much doubt about whom Fran Drescher is supporting on Tuesday.
Amid many glowing remarks about Barack Obama, Drescher says, “If I wasn’t married, I’d do him.”
Drescher, who is hosting an election night party at her house in Malibu, Calif., believes there is a Democratic wave coming, with the party taking the White House and bolstering its congressional majorities.
The presidential race will not be close, Drescher predicts.
“If everything is on the up-and-up, [Obama] will win Florida,” the actress and cancer survivor said.
Like some Republicans, Drescher believes the polls will be wrong. But where she diverges from the GOP is that she foresees a larger margin in favor of Democrats.
Chris Harrison
Chris Harrison, longtime host of ABC’s “The Bachelor,” grew up in a conservative family in Dallas.
And he still is a conservative, despite working “in the most liberal business in the history of the world.”
Harrison is not enamored of McCain, but he favors the Arizona Republican over Obama.
Harrison predicts, however, that Obama will triumph. Florida will go to McCain, while Ohio and Pennsylvania will go blue, he predicts.
In the House, Democrats will pick up 15 seats, Harrison said. And yes, Democrats will get to their 60-seat mark, but Al Franken won’t be among those pickups.
Harrison said, “I hope the people of Minnesota have the God-given sense to elect someone else. He never struck me as someone who wants to lead or who is in this for the right reasons.”
The storylines after the elections, Harrison says, will be “McCain ran a horrible campaign, he made a mistake in choosing [Alaska Gov. Sarah] Palin and he didn’t stand a chance because of the financial crisis.”
Armstrong Williams
Conservative commentator Armstrong Williams, also a contributor to The Hill’s Pundits Blog, believes Democrats will have a big night.
Williams, who vanquished all comers in The Hill’s 2004 election contest, said, “It’s my hope that I’m absolutely wrong in all my predictions.”
He does not see many bright spots for the GOP, predicting that Obama will win Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. Obama’s landslide victory will translate into at least 325 electoral votes, Williams forecast.
Democrats will pick up 22 seats in the House and seven in the Senate, according to Williams, who believes Sen. Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) will win reelection.
Grover Norquist
If the presidential race is close, conservative activist Grover Norquist will win this prediction contest.
For starters, Norquist predicts that the election will not be over on Election Day.
The presidential election will come down to Pennsylvania and could take a month to sort out in the courts.
McCain “will get a majority of the real vote,” and if that is held up in the courts, he will be the next president, Norquist said.
The head of the Americans for Tax Reform says McCain will win North Carolina and Georgia and key battleground states other than Pennsylvania: New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia.
Democrats will pick up only four seats in the Senate, he said. Al Franken will lose and the GOP looks good in Georgia, Mississippi and North Carolina.
Possible surprises would be a GOP pickup in Sen. Mary Landrieu’s (D-La.) reelection race, he said, adding that the South Dakota Senate race will be closer than polls suggest.
Democrats will pick up seats in the House, Norquist said, but those gains will be less than anticipated.
Brent Budowsky
Brent Budowsky, a former aide to Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) and contributor to The Hill’s Pundits Blog, predicts Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will win 300 electoral votes.
Obama will triumph in Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia, Budowsky says.
“The major underreported story is the huge Democratic sweep and turnout of the Hispanic vote, which turns the Southwest Democratic.”
Democrats will pick up seven Senate seats (North Carolina, New Hampshire, Virginia, Oregon, Alaska, New Mexico and Colorado), according to Budowsky.
He also predicts Democrats will gain 21 seats in the House.
Simon Rosenberg
Democrats may not get to 60 in the Senate, but they will have a huge night on Tuesday, according to Simon Rosenberg.
Rosenberg heads the NDN, which is a progressive think tank and advocacy organization.
Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will beat Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) 53 to 46 percent nationally and win 353 electoral votes, Rosenberg said. Democrats will pick up 20 seats in the House and eight in the upper chamber, he predicted.
The big story coming out of the election, according to Rosenberg, will be that “Democrats have figured out how to win a presidential race.”
The 2008 election will be the first in which a Democrat wins a majority vote without winning the South, he added.
“This is a new electoral map. This is a game-changer,” Rosenberg stated, explaining that the Hispanic vote and Southwest voters going for Democrats will put the GOP in an electoral bind in the future.
“The way Republicans handled immigration is one of the greatest political mistakes in the last 50 years,” he said. |
