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The surprise retirement announcement by Rep. Mike Ferguson (R-N.J.) on Monday has set up another potentially fierce open-seat battleground in the Garden State.
Ferguson was barely sent back to Congress in 2006, beating Democratic Assemblywoman Linda Stender by under a percentage point.
“Republican prospects of holding these seats depend on the identities of their nominees,” said Dave Wasserman, House editor of The Cook Political Report. “Democrats’ chief advantage is that their contests are settled in both districts and their candidates have been actively raising money for months.”
Ferguson is the second New Jersey Republican in the House to make the 110th Congress his last. Rep. Jim Saxton announced his retirement on Nov. 9.
Saxton’s district is slightly more Democratic-leaning than Ferguson’s; Bush defeated Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) 51-49 percent there in 2004. Bush defeated Kerry 53-47 in Ferguson’s district.
State Sen. John Adler, the leading Democrat running for Saxton’s seat, reported having more than $229,000 cash on hand at the end of September.
Wasserman mentioned potential Republican candidates from each district who could be the key to keeping the seats in the GOP column.
“State Sen. Diane Allen would be a tough candidate for Democrats to pigeonhole as anything other than a moderate in Saxton’s tradition,” he said, adding that State Sen. Tom Kean Jr., a possible Ferguson replacement, might have an easier hold on the seat than Ferguson did. Kean unsuccessfully ran for Senate last year.
“But at this point, it is unclear whether either or both will run,” Wasserman said. “In any case, Republicans will likely face tough, draining primaries that will offset any natural advantages they might have otherwise had.”
Ingrid Reed, policy analyst at the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers University, said the introduction of new candidates with no link to the Bush presidency could make the difference in both races.
She added that the 2006 Ferguson face-off with Stender made the district look competitive, but she wondered how much of the intensity was due to discontent with Ferguson’s Bush-friendly votes.
The Ferguson announcement was an unexpected blow to House Republicans, because, unlike other GOP members who have announced their retirement this year, he had raised an impressive amount of campaign cash. He had over $758,000 cash on hand with over $151,000 in debt as of Sept. 30. Stender, who is running again, has over $227,000 cash on hand, with no debt.
Following Ferguson’s announcement, GOP party leaders in the state and in Washington expressed confidence that New Jersey will stay red.
National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) said, “There are multiple candidates who have already expressed their interest in running for this seat, and the NRCC will be meeting with those potential candidates in the coming weeks.”
“This last election demonstrated that Stender was little more than the beneficiary of a great political wind at her back in 2006,” said New Jersey Republican State Committee Chairman Tom Wilson. “If she couldn’t win against a sitting congressman in the best year Democrats had since Watergate, there’s next to no chance that she’ll be able to win in what will be a good year for Republicans.”
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) suggested in a statement that it is pleased with Stender as its candidate in the 7th district.
“Ferguson adds to a growing list of Republicans whose views on the war and ties to the president have made it very difficult for them to get reelected,” said Carrie James, a DCCC spokeswoman. “New Jersey families deserve a leader in Congress like Linda Stender who is more in line with their values, and who will fight for them in Congress.”
Stender wasted no time weighing in on Ferguson’s decision.
“I never slowed down after coming within a percentage point of winning last year, and Mr. Ferguson’s departure makes me even more determined,” she said in a Monday release. “The stakes are too important and the need for change in Washington is too great.”
The 37-year-old Ferguson is the 15th House Republican to retire this year. He attributed his decision to his need to be with his wife and four young children.
“My wife, Maureen, and I have four children, the oldest of whom is 9 years old ... Since first being elected in 2000, I have strived to balance my responsibilities to my family and to my constituents.” |
