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A handful of Senate Republican centrists might hold the key to Barack Obama’s ambitious agenda. The president-elect’s policy measures will likely face little resistance in the Democrat-dominated House, where the majority can assert its will over the minority.
But bipartisan compromise will be needed to move major pieces of legislation through the Senate, now that it seems unlikely that Democrats will have a filibuster-proof majority.
If Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) can’t win over the GOP leadership, they will hunt for support across the aisle from rank-and-file centrists to overcome the Senate’s procedural hurdles.
“They are going to be enormously influential,” said former Rep. Charlie Bass, head of the centrist Republican Main Street Partnership.
The shifting dynamic in the Senate comes as the GOP struggles with charting a path forward following a series of resounding electoral defeats in Congress and the presidential race. And the extent to which Democrats successfully tap into the Senate GOP centrists’ newfound influence will likely have major ramifications on the party’s path back to power.
If GOP centrists hand Democrats victories on bills opposed by the party’s leadership — such as card-check legislation that would allow unions to organize without secret-ballot elections — it could leave the party’s wings bitterly divided and lacking a coherent message. But centrists could also help the GOP force Democrats to scale back a liberal agenda through compromises and deflect charges of contributing to gridlock in Washington.
Democrats now hold a 56-40 majority next Congress, short of the 60 votes needed to overcome filibusters. Four Senate races have yet to be officially called, but the GOP incumbents lead in all of those races.
To move substantial policy measures on labor, energy, healthcare, taxes and an overhaul of the financial system, Democrats will likely target Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe, both from Maine, and Arlen Specter, who plans to run for reelection in 2010 in Pennsylvania.
“If we end up with 44 Republicans or even with 43, I think we have the makings of the check and balance,” Specter said Wednesday, acknowledging his conference’s role to temper one-party rule in Washington.
The shortlist of Democratic targets also includes two Republican senators who are now holding narrow leads in their reelection battles — Sen. Norm Coleman (Minn.) and Sen. Gordon Smith (Ore.), who made campaign promises to work closely with Obama.
In the 110th Congress, the GOP senators all supported Democratic efforts to expand children’s health insurance, override a veto on a Medicare bill, impose tougher controls on greenhouse gases, raise taxes on the oil industry and add some restrictions on the conduct of the Iraq war.
Other GOP senators who periodically lend their support for Democratic measures include Johnny Isakson (Ga.) and Roger Wicker, who held onto his Senate seat despite a tough challenge in Mississippi.
Minimizing defections while communicating a clear party message will rest largely on top Senate Republicans, led by Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who survived a tough reelection battle Tuesday.
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