Fresh off a win in the Michigan primary, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is downplaying expectations for his campaign in South Carolina and suggesting that Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) should be considered the GOP front-runner.

During a quick campaign trip to South Carolina Wednesday after his convincing home-state victory in Michigan, Romney deemed the Palmetto State “John McCain country” before heading to Nevada Thursday afternoon.

McCain has assumed the position of front-runner, but other Republican candidates, such as former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.), are desperate for a win to keep their campaigns alive.

Romney’s efforts to play down expectations as the campaign says it is spreading its focus to Nevada’s caucuses might be shrewd. South Carolina analysts have wondered whether a “Yankee” of Mormon faith can play well in a state known for its socially conservative voters.

“We hope to do well here, but we’re under no illusions about the uphill climb we face,” Romney spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said in an e-mail to The Hill. “At the same time, we haven’t overlooked Nevada, where there are actually more delegates at stake than in South Carolina.”

Romney will likely be the only major Republican candidate to campaign in Nevada, which also holds its contest Saturday, as McCain, Thompson and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee all view a win or better-than-expected finish in South Carolina as vital to their hopes.

For McCain, the win would give him a second bump following his victory in the New Hampshire primary. One GOP strategist said the senator will need that bump to accelerate the amount of financial contributions coming into the campaign.

GOP strategist Scott Reed said that for most of the field, generating enough money before the Jan. 29 Florida primary and Super Tuesday on Feb. 5 is one of the biggest motivations for doing well in South Carolina.

“McCain just needs to win and start raising money,” Reed said. “Money is the new big challenge for everyone except Romney.”

But for Huckabee and Thompson, moving on might be the prize.

Huckabee’s biggest boost, as evidenced by his win in the Iowa caucuses, has come from evangelicals and socially conservative voters. Given the nature of South Carolina Republicans, the state would seem a natural fit for Huckabee.

If he shows an inability to close the deal with that base, voters in the bigger states might revisit the pre-Iowa mentality that questioned Huckabee’s viability.

The Thompson campaign has been very clear since the night of the Iowa caucuses that it views the Palmetto State as “the most important contest.”

Thompson’s Southern roots and conservative philosophy make the state his best hope for a win in the early-voting states, and his campaign has signaled it is aware of this reality.

Dean Rice, Thompson’s South Carolina campaign manager, said Thompson is “running around the clock” in the state.
Rice told The Hill the Thompson campaign is confident it can win voters away from McCain, Huckabee and Romney by continuing to hammer away on the issues of immigration and taxes — two areas where they see the competition as extremely vulnerable.

“The contrasts with McCain are just as clear as they are with Romney and Huckabee,” Rice said. “What McCain [has] got now is a bump out of New Hampshire. But the issue’s the same, and South Carolina voters don’t want amnesty.”

A poll released by Clemson University Wednesday showed McCain leading the field with 29 percent. Huckabee came in second with 22 percent, followed by Romney with 13 percent and Thompson with 10 percent.

Stephen Wainscott, a professor at Clemson University, said Huckabee and Thompson could end up splitting the evangelical and social conservative vote, which would virtually guarantee a win for McCain.

Wainscott predicted a bloody race in a state known for fierce political battles, but he said the short turnaround between Michigan and South Carolina offers little time for attacks to hit their marks.

Katon Dawson, chairman of the state GOP, agreed with Wainscott’s assessment to an extent, but said a large number of undecided voters could be swayed by the intense and likely negative campaigning sure to ensue in the following days.

“There’s not 18 days in between like there was in 2000 … but I’ve never seen this many undecided voters so close to the primary,” Dawson told The Hill.

Dawson added that there are a large number of 527 groups in the state targeting the candidates. He specifically mentioned the Club for Growth, which appears to be pulling out all the stops to stop Huckabee.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to be the only major candidate who is essentially sitting on the sidelines, a strategy he has taken throughout this month’s contests.

Giuliani has continued to campaign almost exclusively in Florida, and his poll standings in South Carolina — much like his finishes in the other early-voting states — reflect that strategy.